Indonesian
J
our
nal
of
Electrical
Engineering
and
Computer
Science
V
ol.
25,
No.
2,
February
2022,
pp.
900
∼
909
ISSN:
2502-4752,
DOI:
10.11591/ijeecs.v25.i2.pp900-909
❒
900
Day-ahead
solar
irradiance
f
or
ecast
using
sequence-to-sequence
model
with
attention
mechanism
So
wkarthika
Subramanian
1
,
Y
asoda
Kailasa
Gounder
1
,
Sumathi
Linganathan
2
1
Department
of
Electrical
and
Electronics
Engineering,
Go
v
ernment
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
,
Coimbatore,
India
2
Department
of
Computer
Science
and
Engineering,
Go
v
ernment
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
,
Coimbatore,
India
Article
Inf
o
Article
history:
Recei
v
ed
Jul
18,
2021
Re
vised
No
v
22,
2021
Accepted
Dec
9,
2021
K
eyw
ords:
Attention
Long
short-term
memory
Sequence-to-sequence
LSTM
Solar
irradiance
forecast
ABSTRA
CT
The
increasing
inte
gration
of
distrib
uted
ener
gy
resources
(D
ERs)
into
po
wer
grid
mak
es
it
signicant
to
forecast
solar
irradiance
for
po
wer
sys
tem
planning.
W
ith
the
adv
ent
of
deep
learning
techniques,
it
is
possible
to
forecast
solar
irradiance
accu-
rately
for
a
longer
time.
In
this
paper
,
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
is
forecasted
using
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
models
with
attention
mechanism.
This
study
formulates
the
problem
as
structured
multi
v
ariate
forecasting
and
comprehensi
v
e
e
x-
periments
are
made
with
the
data
collected
from
National
Solar
Radiation
Database
(NSRDB).
T
w
o
error
metrics
are
adopted
to
measure
the
errors
of
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
model
and
compared
with
smart
persistence
(SP),
back
prop-
ag
ation
neural
netw
ork
(BPNN),
recurrent
neural
netw
ork
(RNN),
long
short
term
memory
(LSTM)
and
encoder
-de
coder
sequence-to-sequence
LSTM
with
attention
mechanism
(Enc-Dec-LSTM).
Compared
with
SP
,
BPNN
and
RNN,
Enc-Dec-LSTM
is
more
accurate
and
has
reduced
forecast
error
of
31.1%,
19.3%
and
8.5%
respecti
v
ely
for
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
forecast
with
31.07%
as
forecast
skill.
This
is
an
open
access
article
under
the
CC
BY
-SA
license
.
Corresponding
A
uthor:
So
wkarthika
Subramanian
Department
of
Electrical
and
Electronics
Engineering,
Go
v
ernment
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
Coimbatore,
India
Email:
so
wkarthika@gct.ac.in
1.
INTR
ODUCTION
Inte
gration
of
solar
electricity
kno
wn
as
distrib
uted
ener
gy
resources
(DERs)
into
po
wer
grid
has
g
ained
a
rapid
de
v
elopment
in
recent
years
due
to
reduction
in
manuf
acturing
cost
and
increased
ef
cienc
y
of
photo
v
oltaic
(PV)
panels.
The
amount
of
electricity
that
can
be
generated
from
DERs
is
al
w
ays
a
stochastic
in
nature
because
of
its
dependenc
y
on
weather
parameters.
This
further
leads
to
a
challenge
for
grid
operators
in
estimating
generati
o
n,
distrib
ution
and
scheduling
of
po
wer
generation.
Therefore,
an
accurate
day-ahead
forecast
of
solar
irradiance
with
big
data
and
deep
learning
model
solv
es
this
problem.
F
orecast
models
i
n
literature
for
solar
i
rradiance
are
persistence
model,
ph
ysical
model
and
statist
ical
model.
V
ery
short-t
erm
forecast
(seconds
to
less
than
30
minutes)
is
popularly
predicted
with
persistence
model
[1],
[2].
As
accurac
y
of
persistence
model
decreases
with
increase
in
forecast
horizon,
it
is
not
preferred
for
24
hours
day-ahead
forecast.
In
ph
ysical
model
or
numerica
l
weather
prediction
models
[1],
[3],
the
state
of
the
atmosphere
is
described
by
mathematical
equations
which
require
numerical
methods
to
solv
e.
F
orecast
emplo
yed
with
ph
ysical
model
leads
to
erroneous
result
for
sudden
change
in
v
alues
of
meterological
v
ariables
such
as
relati
v
e
humidity
,
wind
speed
and
wind
direction.
Articial
neural
netw
ork
(ANN)
based
multilayer
perceptron
model
[4],
[5]
with
Le
v
enber
g-Marquardt
algorithm
w
as
proposed
to
forecast
24
ho
ur
s
ahead
solar
J
ournal
homepage:
http://ijeecs.iaescor
e
.com
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
Indonesian
J
Elec
Eng
&
Comp
Sci
ISSN:
2502-4752
❒
901
irradiance
and
found
that
the
usage
of
meterological
parameters
as
input
v
ariables
gi
v
es
more
accurac
y
in
forecast.
Input
v
ari
ables
with
higher
dimension
[6]-[9]
(up
to
900
inputs)
are
used
with
ANN
models
of
dif
ferent
architecture
to
predict
short
ter
m
global
solar
irradiance
of
20%
reduction
in
errors.
Deep
learning
models
are
the
subset
of
machine
learning
and
these
models
on
s
olar
irradiance
forecast
results
with
higher
accurac
y
comapared
to
machine
learning
models.
A
method
of
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
forecast
using
long
short-term
memory
(LSTM)
netw
ork
with
weather
v
ariables
as
feature
v
ectors
w
as
de
v
eloped
[10]
and
results
pro
v
e
that
LSTM
outperforms
all
the
other
con
v
entional
forecast
methods
in
terms
of
forecast
accurac
y
.
Jeon
et
al.
[11]
proposed
an
LSTM
based
deep
learning
model
for
solar
irradiance
forecast
with
weather
v
ariables
and
also
solar
irradiance
of
the
pre
vious
day
as
feature
v
ectors.
Simulation
result
s
ho
ws
the
impro
v
ement
in
forecast
accurac
y
if
solar
irradiance
of
pre
vious
day
is
also
used
as
input
feature.
Gao
et
al.
[12]
proposed
g
ated
recurrent
unit
(GR
U)
based
model
for
hourly
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
forecast
using
weather
v
ariables.
In
this
paper
,
studies
are
made
to
forecast
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
using
LSTM
based
encoder
-
de-
coder
models
with
attention
mechanism.
Intially
,
datas
are
cleaned
and
con
v
erted
into
structured
multi
v
ariate
problem
to
train
with
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
models.
Based
on
pearson
correlation
coef
-
cient,
input
v
ariables
a
re
selected
from
the
list
of
meteorological
parameters.
Comprehensi
v
e
e
xperiments
are
made
to
determine
the
forecast
accurac
y
considering
meterological
parameters
as
input
v
ariable.
Experiments
ha
v
e
sho
wn
that
LSTM
based
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
models
with
attention
mechanism
ha
v
e
reduced
errors
comparati
v
ely
.
F
orecast
horizon
[14]
from
the
perspecti
v
e
of
decision
making
acti
vity
in
mi-
crogrid
or
smartgrid
are
classi
ed
as
v
ery
short-term
forecast,
short-term
forecast,
medium-term
forecast
and
long-term
forecast.
V
ery
short-term
forecast
is
used
in
real
time
monitoring
of
photo
v
oltaic
po
wer
and
the
forecast
ho
r
izon
is
from
fe
w
seconds
to
minutes
ahead.
Short-term
forecast
is
used
in
decsion
making
applica-
tions
in
v
olv
ed
in
po
wer
system
operation
such
as
economic
dispatch,
unit
commitment.
F
orecast
horizon
for
short-term
forecast
is
up
to
48
to
72
hours
ahead.
Schedule
and
maintenance
of
po
wer
plant
are
planned
with
medium-term
forecast
and
its
horizon
is
upto
one
week
ahead.
Long
term
forecast
helps
in
the
assessment
of
solar
ener
gy
and
its
horizon
is
from
months
to
years.
Unit
commitment
[15],
[16]
for
po
wer
plants
such
as
biomass,
nuclear
,
and
coal,
are
one
day-ahead
and
for
po
wer
plants
such
as
g
as
and
oil
are
hour
ahead.
This
time
horizon
is
formul
ated
depending
on
their
st
artup
and
s
h
ut
do
wn
times.
In
such
a
case
with
rene
w
able
inte
gration
into
grid,
unit
commitment
and
economic
dispatch
decisions
v
ary
depending
on
solar
forecasts.
In
this
paper
,
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
is
forecasted
using
dif
ferent
deep-learning
techniques.
In
day-
ahead
forecast
pre
vious
day’
s
data
is
used
as
input
to
forecast
irradiance
of
ne
xt
11
hours
with
a
resolution
of
one
hour
.
In
general,
geographical
locations
[17]
also
deter
mine
the
forecast
error
and
hence
the
models
described
here
are
tested
for
dif
ferent
locations
with
dif
ferent
climatic
conditions
also.
This
paper
is
or
g
anised
as
follo
ws:
methodology
is
described
in
section
2,
description
of
data
and
preprocessing
in
section
3,
e
xperiments
and
results
in
section
4
and
conclusion
and
future
w
ork
in
section
5.
2.
METHOD
Long
short
term
memory
netw
ork
is
base
for
all
the
other
models.
Hence,
architecture
of
LSTM
and
LSTM
based
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
models
with
attention
mechanism
and
a
benchmark
algo-
rithm
are
described
in
detail.
Under
benchmark
algorithm,
smart
persistence
is
used
to
compare
the
proposed
method.
2.1.
Smart
persistence-benchmark
algorithm
F
orecast
error
v
aries
with
dataset,
location
and
horizon.
Hence
for
a
good
comparison,
benchmarking
algorithm
such
as
smart
persistence
model
(SP)
[18]
or
scaled
persistence
model
is
suggested.
Smart
persistence
model
suggest
that
the
predicted
v
alue
at
the
ne
xt
moment
ˆ
G
(
t
+
h
)
is
the
product
of
clear
-sk
y
inde
x
k
cs
(
t
)
and
clear
-sk
y
irradiance
at
ne
xt
moment
G
cs
(
t
+
h
)
.
k
cs
(
t
)
=
G
(
t
)
G
cs
(
t
)
(1)
ˆ
G
(
t
+
h
)
=
k
cs
(
t
)
G
cs
(
t
+
h
)
(2)
where
k
cs
(
t
)
is
the
clear
-sk
y
inde
x
,
G
cs
(
t
)
is
the
clear
-sk
y
irradiance
and
h
in
(2)
is
the
forecast
horizon.
Day-ahead
solar
irr
adiance
for
ecast
using
sequence-to-sequence
model
with
...
(Sowkarthika
Subr
amanian)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
902
❒
ISSN:
2502-4752
2.2.
Encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
ar
chitectur
e
T
raditional
neural
netw
ork
lik
e
back
propag
ation
neural
netw
ork
(BPNN)
,
do
not
ha
v
e
memory
to
understand
and
process
sequential
data.
This
w
as
o
v
ercome
by
recurrent
neural
netw
ork
(RNN)
algorithm
[19].
RNNs
ha
v
e
loops
within
them
and
mak
es
the
informations
to
pe
rsist.
Ho
we
v
er
RNN
suf
fers
from
v
anishing
and
e
xploding
gradient
problems
that
pre
v
ents
it
from
learning
lar
ge
sequences.
Hochreiter
et
al.
proposed
LSTM
[20]
netw
ork
that
can
process
sequential
data
ef
fecti
v
ely
with
recurrent
neural
netw
ork
as
sho
wn
in
Figure
1.
Figure
1.
LSTM
cell
structure
Input
v
ariables
of
a
single
LSTM
units
are
current
time
step
input
v
ector
X
t
,
output
of
the
pre
vi
ous
LSTM
unit
h
t
−
1
and
memory
of
the
pre
vious
LSTM
unit
also
called
cell
state
c
t
−
1
.
The
outputs
of
a
single
LSTM
unit
are
output
of
the
hidden
layer
h
t
and
memory
at
the
current
time
step
c
t
.
Each
LSTM
unit
proces
ses
the
information
through
for
get
g
ate
(
f
t
),
input
g
ate
(
i
t
)
and
output
g
ate
(
o
t
)
according
to
(3),
(4)
and
(5).
f
t
=
σ
(
W
xf
or
x
t
+
W
hf
or
h
t
−
1
+
b
f
or
)
(3)
i
t
=
σ
(
W
xinp
x
t
+
W
hinp
h
t
−
1
+
b
inp
)
(4)
o
t
=
σ
(
W
xout
x
t
+
W
hout
h
t
−
1
+
b
out
)
(5)
Where
W
xf
or
,
W
hf
or
are
for
get
g
ate’
s
weight
matrix,
W
xinp
,
W
hinp
are
input
g
ate’
s
weight
matrix
and
W
xout
,
W
hout
are
output
g
ate’
s
weight
matrix;
b
f
or
,
b
inp
and
b
out
are
bias
v
alues
of
for
get
g
ate,
input
g
ate
and
output
g
ate
respecti
v
ely
.
σ
represents
sigmoid
acti
v
ation
function.
F
or
get
g
ate
(
f
t
)
decides,
which
part
of
the
informations
are
to
be
erased
and
which
part
of
the
informations
are
to
be
retained
and
outputs
a
number
between
0
and
1
through
sigmoid
function.
Input
g
ate
(
i
t
)
and
for
get
g
a
te
(
f
t
)
species
the
part
of
the
informations
to
be
added
with
the
cell
state.
Finally
,
output
g
ate
(
o
t
)
decides
the
information
output
from
cell
state.
Cell
state
c
t
and
current
output
of
hidden
layer
are
calculated
by
(6)
and
(7),
c
t
=
f
t
⊙
c
t
−
1
+
i
t
⊙
tanh
(
W
xcel
l
x
t
+
W
hcel
l
h
t
−
1
+
b
cel
l
)
(6)
h
t
=
o
t
⊙
tanh
(
c
t
)
(7)
where
⊙
represents
the
hadamard
product
that
performs
element-wise
matrix
multiplication.
Encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
architecture
uses
LSTM
(Enc-Dec-LSTM)
as
encoder
com-
ponent,
Luong’
s
att
ention
layer
,
another
LSTM
netw
ork
as
decoder
component
and
a
dense
layer
as
sho
wn
in
Figure
2.
Encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
archi
tecture
although
de
v
eloped
for
nat
ural
language
trans-
lation,
it
had
been
succesfully
applied
for
time-series
forecasting
[21]
such
as
ai
r
-quality
,
and
traf
c
prediction.
Encoder
[22]
encodes
the
information
from
i
n
put
into
a
x
ed
length
v
ector
.
The
nal
outputs
of
the
encoder
are
Indonesian
J
Elec
Eng
&
Comp
Sci,
V
ol.
25,
No.
2,
February
2022:
900–909
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
Indonesian
J
Elec
Eng
&
Comp
Sci
ISSN:
2502-4752
❒
903
discarded
and
the
internal
state
and
hidden
state
combinedly
called
x
ed
length
v
ector
is
fed
into
the
decoder
.
Decoder
is
also
gi
v
en
pre
vious
hour
of
the
tar
get
and
trained
to
predict
ne
xt
hour
.
This
process
of
training
is
called
teacher
-forcing.
Figure
2.
Encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
architecture
Figure
3.
Attention
layer
2.3.
Attention
mechanism
According
to
Luong
et
al.
[23]
the
potential
issue
of
the
encoder
is,
by
compressing
all
necessary
information
of
input
into
a
x
ed-length
v
ector
may
f
ail
to
generate
long
sequence
from
the
decoder
.
Attention
layer
as
sho
wn
in
Figure
3
allo
ws
the
model
to
access
all
the
past
hidden
states
of
encoder
instead
of
the
last
hidden
layer
alone.
The
alignment
score
e
t,i
for
Luong’
s
attention
is
calculated
as
in
(8),
e
t,i
=
h
T
dt
·
h
i
(8)
a
t,i
=
exp
(
e
t,i
)
P
N
j
=1
exp
(
e
t,j
)
(9)
C
t
=
N
X
i
=1
a
t,i
h
i
(10)
where
h
dt
is
current
tar
get
state
or
t
th
hidden
sta
te
of
decoder
and
h
i
is
i
th
hidden
state
of
encoder
.
Attention
weight
a
t,i
as
in
(9)
is
calculated
by
softmaxing
the
alignment
score
to
sum
up
to
1.
Conte
xt
v
ector
as
in
(10)
is
computed
by
element-wise
multiplication
of
ith
hidden
state
of
encoder
and
attention
weight.
The
conte
xt
v
ector
is
then
concatenated
with
current
tar
get
state
h
dt
and
is
fed
into
a
fully
connected
feed-forw
ard
netw
ork
Day-ahead
solar
irr
adiance
for
ecast
using
sequence-to-sequence
model
with
...
(Sowkarthika
Subr
amanian)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
904
❒
ISSN:
2502-4752
(FFN).
Computation
time
[10],
[12]
for
these
netw
orks
are
not
critical
as
training
is
of
ine
b
ut
the
forecast
using
trained
netw
ork
is
f
ast.
3.
DESCRIPTION
OF
D
A
T
A
AND
PREPR
OCESSING
3.1.
Dataset
Solar
irradiance
data
can
be
obtained
either
from
a
measuring
instrument
installed
at
site
or
through
satellite
deri
v
ed
irradiance
dataset.
Though
satellite
deri
v
ed
dataset
is
less
accurate
compared
to
a
dataset
col-
lected
from
a
measuring
instrument,
satellite
deri
v
ed
dataset
is
often
used
by
researchers
[24],
[25]
because
of
its
open
access,
ease
of
use,
wide
temporal
and
spatial
co
v
erage
and
almost
no
data
is
missed.
The
data
set
containing
real-w
orld
meterological
v
alues
are
collected
from
the
National
Rene
w
able
Ener
gy
Laboratory’
s
(NREL),
National
Solar
Radiation
Database
(NSRDB)
[26]
for
Ne
w
Delhi,
India.
Hourly
data
of
global
hori-
zontal
irradiance
(GHI),
temperature,
pressure,
relati
v
e
humidity
,
wind
direction
and
wind
speed
are
obtained
from
the
year
2009
to
2015.
Solar
i
rradiance
e
xists
only
during
daytime
and
hence
the
hours
between
7:00
AM
and
5:00
PM
are
considered.
After
analysing
the
dataset,
solar
irradiance
peaks
in
the
month
of
April
and
May
comparati
v
ely
for
selected
location
and
this
sho
ws
its
seasonal
beha
viour
.
Figure
4.
Heat
map
with
correlation
coef
cient
between
input
v
ariables
3.2.
Data
normalization
The
datas
loaded
into
neural
netw
ork
are
normalized
in
the
range
of
[0,
1].
According
to
(11)
d
i
is
the
data
before
normalization,
d
∗
i
is
the
data
after
normalization,
d
min
and
d
max
are
the
minimum
and
maximum
v
alue
of
the
v
ariable.
The
aim
of
data
normalization
is
to
con
v
ert
the
numeric
v
alues
in
dataset
to
a
common
v
alue.
d
∗
i
=
d
i
−
d
min
d
max
−
d
min
(11)
3.3.
Corr
elation
Linear
relationship
between
tw
o
v
ariables
are
measured
commonly
with
the
Pearson’
s
correlation
coef
cient.
Correlation
between
solar
irradiance
and
other
weather
v
ariables
are
measured
using
Pearson’
s
Indonesian
J
Elec
Eng
&
Comp
Sci,
V
ol.
25,
No.
2,
February
2022:
900–909
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
Indonesian
J
Elec
Eng
&
Comp
Sci
ISSN:
2502-4752
❒
905
correlation
coef
cient
as
sho
wn
in
Figure
4.
From
the
analyses
of
Pearson’
s
correlation
coef
cient,
temperature
is
found
to
be
positi
v
ely
correlated
with
GHI
and
relati
v
e
humidity
is
found
to
be
ne
g
ati
v
ely
correlated
with
GHI.
In
literature,
Ev
ans
[27]
and
Denes
et
al.
[28]
classied
the
absolute
v
alue
for
correlation
f
actor
as
v
ery
weak
if
v
alue
is
between
0
and
0.19,
weak
if
v
alue
is
between
0.20
and
0.39,
moderate
if
v
al
ue
is
between
0.40
and
0.59,
strong
if
v
alue
is
between
0.6
and
0.79
and
v
ery
strong
if
v
alue
is
between
0.8
and
0.99.
As
per
the
abo
v
e
classication
wind
direction
and
wind
speed
can
be
ne
glected
as
their
correlation
is
v
ery
weak
with
GHI.
Sliding
windo
w
technique
is
used
in
preprocessing
of
data.
4.
EXPERIMENTS
AND
RESUL
TS
4.1.
T
raining
and
testing
data
The
data
from
January
2009
to
December
2013
are
tak
en
as
training
set
and
the
data
from
2014
are
tak
en
as
test
set.
T
raining
and
v
alidation
data
are
split
using
test
train
splitter
which
de
v
otes
80%
of
data
to
train
and
remaining
20%
of
data
for
v
alidation.
Input
data
with
weather
v
ariables
are
in
dif
ferent
range
of
v
alues.
Hence
datasets
are
rescaled
to
lie
in
the
range
of
[0,
1]
and
it
is
called
normalization
of
datasets.
Datasets
are
normalized
using
MinMaxScaler
in
scikit-learn
according
to
(11).
4.2.
Metrics
Standard
statistical
measures
such
as
root
mean
square
error
(RMSE)
,
and
mean
absolute
error
(MAE)
are
commonly
used
to
measure
the
accurac
y
of
forecast
model
[29],
R
M
S
E
=
v
u
u
t
1
n
n
X
i
=1
(
Y
pr
ed,i
−
Y
actual
,i
)
2
(12)
M
AE
=
1
n
i
=
n
X
i
=1
|
Y
pr
ed,i
−
Y
actual
,i
|
(13)
where
Y
pr
ed
is
the
predicted
irradiance
v
alue
and
Y
actual
is
the
actual
irradiance
v
alue.
T
o
ha
v
e
a
good
com-
parision,
forecast
skill
(FS)
[18]
is
one
of
the
most
recommended
metric
in
the
w
orld
of
forecast,
where
SP
in
14
is
smart
persistence.
F
or
ecastS
k
il
l
=
1
−
R
M
S
E
pr
oposed
R
M
S
E
S
P
(14)
4.3.
Experiments
Experiments
described
here
uses
K
eras
v
ersion
2.3.1
to
implement
BPNN,
RNN,
LSTM
and
LSTM
based
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
model
with
attention.
Hyper
-parameter
for
the
abo
v
e
models
are
tuned
based
on
grid-search
method.
BPNN
has
55
units
and
95
units
in
hidden
layer1
and
hidden
layer2
respecti
v
ely
whereas
RNN
has
95
units
and
105
units,
LSTM
has
85
units
and
125
units
in
their
repecti
v
e
hidden
layer1
and
hidden
layer2.
Encoder
and
decoder
layer
has
each
95
units
in
Enc-Dec-LSTM
netw
ork.
Dropout
of
0.2
is
used
in
each
of
input
layers
as
a
re
gularisation
technique.
Adam
optimiser
is
used
for
optimization
as
it
combines
the
best
features
of
RMSprop
and
AdaGrad
and
batch
size
is
set
as
100
from
grid-search
method.
Smart
persistence
model
is
free
of
training
and
tuning
of
parameters.
4.3.1.
F
or
ecast
r
esults
F
orecast
is
performed
with
temperature,
relati
v
e
humidity
and
pressure
as
input
v
ariables
and
Enc-
Dec-LSTM
model
is
compared
with
LSTM,
RNN,
BPNN
and
SP
.
Clearsk
y
GHI
is
used
in
smart
persistence
to
forecast
day-ahead
irradiance.
The
hourly
input
v
ariables
from
8:00
am
to
5:00
pm
are
considered
and
therefore
for
a
day
,
10
timesteps
are
accounted.
Dif
ferent
lagging
time
from
10
hour
to
22
hour
are
tested
and
found
the
model
results
with
least
error
for
a
10
hour
lagging
time.
Thus
for
day-ahead
forecast,
pre
vious
day’
s
10
hours
of
data
is
gi
v
en
as
input
to
predict
ne
xt
day’
s
10
hours
of
solar
irradiance
with
a
resolution
of
one
hour
.
Day-ahead
solar
irr
adiance
for
ecast
using
sequence-to-sequence
model
with
...
(Sowkarthika
Subr
amanian)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
906
❒
ISSN:
2502-4752
-1
0
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
8
10
12
14
16
8
10
12
14
16
8
10
12
14
16
8
10
12
14
16
8
10
12
14
16
GH
I
(
W
/
m
^
2
)
Ti
m
e
i
n
h
o
u
r
s
Ac
t
u
a
l
D
a
t
a
RN
N
LS
T
M
En
c
-
D
e
c
Su
n
n
y
D
a
y
-
1
Ja
n
2014
Su
n
n
y
D
a
y
-
2
Ja
n
2
0
1
4
Cl
o
u
d
y
D
a
y
-
3
Ja
n
2
0
1
4
Su
n
n
y
D
a
y
-
4
Ja
n
2
0
1
4
Su
n
n
y
D
a
y
-
5
Ja
n
2014
Figure
5.
Comparision
of
hourly
forecasted
irradiance
v
alues
T
able
1.
Performance
comparision
of
dif
ferent
algorithms
Algorithm
RMSE
(
W
/m
2
)
MAE
(
W
/m
2
)
FS(%)
Enc-Dec-LSTM
100.57
60.27
31.07
LSTM
104.52
61.88
28.37
RNN
109.95
64.37
24.64
BPNN
124.67
104.13
14.56
SP
145.91
79.77
0
F
orecast
results
in
terms
of
error
metric
are
sho
wn
in
T
able
1.
Enc-Dec-LSTM
outperforms
the
other
models
and
compared
to
SP
,
BPNN
and
RNN,
RMSE
is
reduced
by
31.1%,
19.3%,
8.5%
respecti
v
ely
and
MAE
is
reduced
by
24.4%,
42.1%,
6.4%
respecti
v
ely
.
Less
forecast
skill
indicates
that
the
models
performance
is
almost
same
as
that
of
smart
persistence
model.
Enc-Dec-
LSTM
model
has
the
highest
forecast
skill
of
31.07%
which
indicates
that
the
model
performs
better
than
an
y
other
model
compared
here.
As
sho
wn
in
Figure
5,
Enc-Dec-LSTM
model’
s
forecast
is
nearer
to
actual
data
e
v
en
on
a
cloudy
day
and
hence
its
o
v
erall
error
is
less
compared
to
the
other
models.
A
v
erage
monthly
RMSE
of
the
test
dataset
is
sho
wn
in
T
able
2
and
its
seen
that
the
error
peaks
during
Monsoon
season.
As
sho
wn
in
Figure
4,
GHI
is
highly
correlated
with
temperature
v
ariable
and
thus
the
monthly
correlation
of
temperature
with
GHI
is
tested
on
the
test
dataset.
The
correlation
of
temperature
with
GHI
during
the
months
July
,
August
and
September
are
lo
w
which
results
wit
h
highest
error
during
Monsoon
season.
T
able
2.
A
v
erage
monthly
RMSE
(
W
/m
2
)
and
MAE
(
W
/m
2
)
of
test
dataset
Error
Algorithm
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
v
Dec
RMSE
Enc-Dec
91.41
127.82
121.57
81.42
96.69
105.02
131.45
143.63
102.66
48.68
24.83
57.46
-LSTM
LSTM
98.95
137.23
124.82
80.61
99.17
104.74
136.11
145.98
106.86
54.82
24.06
68.41
RNN
123.18
155.47
130.17
82.13
98.71
102.13
138.43
153.29
108.72
51.37
24.63
65.19
BPNN
98.76
133.35
136.35
114.75
121.88
114.53
137.24
153.98
123.97
73.09
49.03
64.87
MAE
Enc-Dec
59.52
86.20
79.86
50.87
56.02
58.64
88.21
95.95
63.06
30.32
19.23
34.70
-LSTM
LSTM
60.85
85.63
76.18
47.38
59.34
64.02
93.31
96.05
67.22
36.06
17.89
37.76
RNN
69.90
92.07
80.70
52.60
61.95
62.73
93.05
101.06
70.23
32.22
18.21
36.97
BPNN
71.29
103.27
106.79
99.72
105.91
93.45
108.85
122.92
97.72
59.49
39.92
47.15
Indonesian
J
Elec
Eng
&
Comp
Sci,
V
ol.
25,
No.
2,
February
2022:
900–909
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
Indonesian
J
Elec
Eng
&
Comp
Sci
ISSN:
2502-4752
❒
907
4.3.2.
F
or
ecast
r
esults
at
differ
ent
location
In
addition,
the
geographical
location
and
climatic
conditions
also
determine
the
forecast
accurac
y
and
hence
a
test
is
made
on
three
dif
ferent
location
with
dif
ferent
climatic
conditions
to
study
and
compare
the
feasibility
of
Enc-Dec-LSTM
model.
LSTM
and
Enc-Dec-LSTM
models
are
compared
for
the
datasets
collected
from
NSRDB
at
dif
ferent
locations
for
dif
ferent
climatic
conditions
according
to
K
oppen-Geiger
climate
classication.
The
data
from
year
2009
to
2013
are
set
as
training
dataset
and
2014
as
testing
dataset.
T
able
3
lists
the
day-ahead
RMSE
of
LSTM
and
Enc-Dec-LSTM
in
which
Enc-Dec-LSTM
has
least
error
in
all
dif
ferent
locations
with
dif
ferent
climatic
conditions.
According
to
K
oppen-Geiger
climate
classication
Csa,
Bsh
and
A
w
as
listed
in
T
able
3
denotes
hot-summer
mediterranean
climate,
hot
semi-arid
(steppe)
climate,
tropical
sa
v
anna
wet
climate
respecti
v
ely
.
T
able
3.
Day-ahead
RMSE
of
forecast
model
at
dif
ferent
locations
Latitude
Longitude
Climate
LSTM
RMSE
(
W
/m
2
)
Enc-Dec-LSTM
RMSE
(
W
/m
2
)
23.25
77.35
Csa
101.42
98.47
26.25
73.05
Bsh
88.44
85.5
22.65
88.45
A
w
121.46
117.55
4.3.3.
Comparision
with
r
ecently
published
papers
A
comparision
of
recently
published
w
orks
in
one
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
forecast
is
made
in
T
able
4.
Emer
ging
deep
learning
techniques
sho
ws
grea
t
impro
v
ement
in
accurac
y
for
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
forecast.
F
orecast
er
ror
can
also
depend
on
geographical
location
and
climatic
condition
and
therefore
forecast
skill
as
de
v
eloped
by
Y
ang
[18]
can
be
the
best
reference
to
compare
with
other
models.
As
per
forecast
skill
comparision
in
T
able
4,
LSTM
based
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
with
att
ention
mechanism
has
highest
skill
of
31.07%
and
thus
it
outperforms
the
other
models.
T
able
4.
Comparision
of
day-ahead
solar
irradiance
with
recently
published
w
orks
Author
Algorithm
Location
RMSE
FS(%)
Larson
et
al.
[30]
LSO
a
and
NWP
b
San
Die
go,
USA
27.5
%
24
Aryaputera
et
al.
[31]
WRF
c
and
ETS
d
Station
500,
Sing
apore
188
(
W
/m
2
)
12.9
as
per
14
Hai
et
al.
[32]
DFT
e
Qingdao,
China
127.3
(
W
/m
2
)
6.3
Qing
and
Niu
et
al.
[10]
LSTM
Cape
V
erde,
Santiago
122.72
(
W
/m
2
)
–
Gao
et
al.
[12]
GR
U
Den
v
er
,
USA
122.45
(
W
/m
2
)
28.4
Present
w
ork
Enc-Dec-LSTM
Ne
w
Delhi,
India
100.57
(
W
/m
2
)
31.07
Abbre
viations:
a
least-squares
optimization,
b
numerical
weather
prediction,
c
weather
research
forecasting,
d
e
xponential
smoothing,
e
discrete
fourier
transform
5.
CONCLUSION
AND
FUTURE
W
ORK
This
paper
attempts
to
study
the
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
models
with
attention
for
solar
irradiance
forecast
which
w
as
originally
de
v
eloped
for
natural
language
processing.
Initially
datas
are
collected
from
NSRDB
site
and
processed
with
sliding
windo
w
technique
and
then
normalised
before
applying
to
deep-learning
model
s
to
impro
v
e
accurac
y
.
Unw
anted
features
of
data
are
remo
v
ed
usi
n
g
pearson’
s
corre-
lation
method.
Fi
v
e
years
of
data
are
supplied
for
training
and
one
year
of
data
is
supplied
for
testing.
Based
on
the
e
xperimental
results,
LSTM
based
encoder
-decoder
sequence-to-sequence
models
with
attention
mech-
anism
outperforms
the
other
techniques
as
it
combines
both
encoder
-decoder
f
acility
and
attention
mechanism
which
reduces
error
and
impro
v
es
accurac
y
,
though
the
computation
time
of
Enc-Dec-LSTM
model
is
higher
than
LSTM.
Further
the
rec
ently
de
v
eloped
CNN
based
h
ybrid
models
and
transformer
models
could
also
be
studied
for
solar
irradiance
forecast.
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2502-4752
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909
BIOGRAPHIES
OF
A
UTHORS
So
wkarthika
Subramanian
recei
v
ed
the
B.E
de
gree
in
electrical
engineering
from
K
u-
maraguru
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
and
M.E
de
gree
in
po
wer
electronics
and
dri
v
es
in
PSG
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
.
She
is
currently
w
orking
a
s
assistant
professor
in
Go
v
ernment
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
.
Her
research
interests
include
AI
based
po
wer
electronics
applications
to
rene
w
able
ener
gy
systems.
She
can
be
contacted
at
email:
so
wkarthika@gct.ac.in.
Y
asoda
Kailasa
Gounder
recei
v
ed
the
B.E.
in
Electrical
Engineering
at
Coimbatore
Insti-
tute
of
T
ec
hnology
,
Coimbatore,
India,
M.E.
de
gree
in
Po
wer
Electronics
and
Dri
v
es
from
Alag
appa
Chettiar
Colle
ge
Engineering
and
T
echnology
,
Kar
aikudi,
India
and
Ph.D.
from
Anna
Uni
v
ersity
,
Chennai,
India.
Currently
,
she
is
w
orking
as
an
assistant
professor
(senior
grade
)
in
Department
of
Electrical
Engineering
at
Go
v
ernment
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
,
Coimbatore,
India.
Her
research
inter
-
ests
are
wind
ener
gy
con
v
ersion
systems,
po
wer
electronics
and
micro
grids.
She
can
be
contacted
at
email:
yasoda@gct.ac.in.
Sumathi
Linganathan
recei
v
ed
the
B.T
ech
de
gree
in
Information
T
echnology
from
VLB
Jannakiammal
Colle
ge
of
Engineering
and
T
echnology
and
M.E.
in
Computer
Science
and
Engineer
-
ing
from
K
umaraguru
Colle
ge
of
T
echnology
.
She
w
ork
ed
as
softw
are
engineer
in
Infosys
Pvt.
Ltd.
from
2007
to
2008.
She
is
currently
w
orking
as
assistant
professor
in
Go
v
ernment
Colle
ge
of
T
ech-
nology
.
Her
research
interests
include
Internet
of
Things,
Machine
Learning,
and
Cyber
Security
.
She
can
be
contacted
at
email:
lsumathi@gct.ac.in.
Day-ahead
solar
irr
adiance
for
ecast
using
sequence-to-sequence
model
with
...
(Sowkarthika
Subr
amanian)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.