TELKOM
NIKA
, Vol. 11, No. 2, Februa
ry 2013, pp. 1005
~10
1
1
ISSN: 2302-4
046
1005
Re
cei
v
ed Se
ptem
ber 25, 2012; Revi
se
d Jan
uary 4, 2012; Accept
ed Ja
nua
ry 1
6
, 2013
An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between
Logistics Industry and Economic Development of
Henan Province
Yu-ping Chu, Jie-jie Liu
*
Schoo
l of Busi
ness Admi
nistr
a
tion, Un
iversit
y
of
Scie
nce a
nd T
e
chnol
og
y Liao
nin
g
, Ans
han, Li
ao
nin
g
,
Chin
a
*Corres
p
o
ndi
n
g
author, e-ma
i
l
: liuji
el
nkd@s
i
na.cn, liuc
a
n
0
7
91@
126.com
A
b
st
r
a
ct
In view
of mod
e
rn lo
gistics in
dustry in eco
n
o
mic dev
elo
p
m
e
n
t play
in
g a
n
incre
a
sin
g
ly
importa
nt
role, in ord
e
r to expl
ore the r
e
lati
onsh
i
p b
e
tw
een lo
g
i
stics ind
u
stry and e
c
ono
mic deve
l
op
me
nt of Hen
a
n
provi
n
ce, this
pap
er sel
e
cts i
t
s releva
nt dat
a of 19
90-
201
0, establ
ishi
ng
econ
o
m
et
ric mode
l,
qu
antitati
v
el
y
studyin
g the r
e
lati
onsh
i
p b
e
tw
een eco
n
o
m
i
c
devel
op
ment
and its lo
gisti
cs industry, in
the end w
e
d
r
aw
conclusions with logistics
in
d
u
stry lea
d
in
g to a si
gnific
ant
contrib
u
tion t
o
the ec
on
o
m
i
c
deve
l
op
ment
of
Hen
an Prov
inc
e
. Accordin
g
to the conc
lusi
on, w
e
c
an b
e
more effecti
v
e in co
nsi
deri
ng the status
o
f
logistics
i
ndust
r
y in
the
eco
n
o
m
ic
d
e
vel
o
p
m
e
n
t of th
e H
e
n
a
n
Prov
ince,
pr
ovidi
n
g
b
a
sis
w
h
ich re
late
d
w
i
th
decisi
ons
mak
i
ng for lo
gistic
s policy. F
i
na
l
l
y, w
e
make
corresp
ond
in
g
suggesti
ons
accord
ing to the
conclusions.
Ke
y
w
ords
:
lo
g
i
stics, econo
mi
c devel
op
me
nt, correlati
on, ec
ono
metric mod
e
l
Copy
right
©
2013 Un
ive
r
sita
s Ah
mad
Dah
l
an
. All rig
h
t
s r
ese
rved
.
1. Introduc
tion
The famou
s
American e
c
onomi
s
t Peter Ferdina
nd
Dru
c
ke
r point
s out: “50% p
e
rcent of
the co
sts th
at con
s
ume
r
s sp
endi
ng
on com
m
odit
y
is associ
a
t
ed with the
circulation
o
f
comm
oditie
s
activities, so
area
of logisti
cs in
du
stry
is the last area
to redu
ce
co
sts”. In Japa
n,
the area of l
ogisti
cs i
ndu
st
ry is con
s
id
ered
inferi
or
to the field o
f
resource
al
ong
with fiel
d of
human,
which is b
e
ing
"the thi
r
d
profi
t
sou
r
ce",
th
erefo
r
e, lo
gistics i
ndu
stry
has si
gnifica
nt
influen
ce on
co
st control a
nd eco
nomi
c
developm
ent. Similarly, modern lo
gisti
c
s industry is al
so
the pilla
r ind
u
s
try of
Hen
a
n
economy
as
well a
s
it
s n
e
w
e
c
on
omi
c
gro
w
th p
o
int.
Relying
on th
e
transpo
rt hub
locatio
n
of it
s p
r
ovin
cial
capi
tal-Z
hen
gzhou, Hena
n
has th
e u
n
iq
ue conditio
n
s in
advan
cing th
e developm
e
n
t of logi
stics indu
stry. The logisti
cs
i
ndu
stry of Henan ha
s ind
eed
made g
r
eat
prog
re
ss after con
s
tructio
n
for mo
re than 10 years,
howeve
r
, co
mpared with
the
coa
s
tal p
r
ovi
n
ce
s a
nd e
c
onomi
c
ally d
e
velope
d ar
e
a
s, mod
e
rn logisti
cs in
du
stry of He
na
n
Province is still lagging be
hind a lot, which i
s
st
ill in
the initial stage, problem
s su
ch a
s
bli
n
d
investment, redun
dant con
s
tru
c
tion and
so
ali
k
e st
ill
exist. In this
pape
r, we u
s
e the m
e
thod
of
empiri
cal
stu
d
y, trying to
find
out the
extent
of
correlation
bet
wee
n
lo
gisti
c
s in
du
stry a
n
d
eco
nomi
c
d
e
v
elopment
of He
nan
Prov
ince,
so
a
s
t
o
provide
ba
sis for de
cisi
on ma
kin
g
o
n
related polici
e
s.
2. Literature
Rev
i
e
w
2.1. Foreign Res
earc
h
In terms
of the rel
a
tion
sh
ip between l
ogisti
cs i
ndu
stry and
eco
nomic
devel
opment,
foreign
re
sea
r
ch fo
cu
s on
the study of logisti
cs
syste
m
of regio
nal
econ
omi
c
b
enefits, mainl
y
from the follo
wing two asp
e
cts:
(1) T
hey are
focu
sing o
n
the effect of l
ogist
ic
s
in
fr
as
tr
uc
tu
re
es
pe
cially
t
r
af
f
i
c
car
r
ia
ge
facilities
on regional economic
development. As of Jack
R Mer
edith
(1998) is the first to
combi
ne l
ogi
stics in
du
stry
with regio
nal
eco
nomy
to g
o
on
hi
s
a
nal
ysis and
re
se
arch, who gives
the final
conclusions as the following: the tran
sportation infrastructu
re facilities and the
developm
ent
of the logistics indu
st
ry of the whole city will be
playing an i
m
portant role i
n
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
ISSN: 23
02-4
046
TELKOM
NIKA
Vol. 11, No. 2, Februa
ry 2013 : 1005 – 1011
1006
enha
nci
ng the overall comp
etit
iveness of re
gi
onal e
c
on
o
m
y as well
as imp
r
ovi
ng its
environ
ment
for inve
stme
nt [1]. Mudit
Kulshre
shtha
(200
4) fo
cu
s o
n
b
o
th
the
signifi
cant
influen
ce that India railway
transp
o
rtatio
n logist
ics bri
ngs to its eco
nomic d
e
velo
pment and th
e
correl
ation be
tween the two [2]. Paul D.
Larson
(20
0
3
)
su
rveys the
role of logi
stics infra
s
tru
c
ture
playing on th
e regio
nal e
c
onomi
c
devel
opment by
establishi
ng a
multilayer mo
del OECD [3].
(2) T
hey hav
e been expl
o
r
ing the the
relation
shi
p
betwe
en ove
r
all re
gion
al logisti
c
s
indu
stry deve
l
opment
and
eco
nomi
c
d
e
v
elopment. M
r
ijam Idi
ng
(2
001) focus on
the relation
ship
betwe
en re
gi
onal ra
pid e
c
onomi
c
devel
opment an
d
its logi
stics ind
u
stry of Singa
pore [4].
2.2. Domestic Rese
arch
At pre
s
ent, t
he d
o
me
stic re
sea
r
ch
wi
th reg
a
rd to
the
correlati
on b
e
twee
n
logisti
cs
indu
stry an
d region
al e
c
on
omic
gro
w
th
are
both
q
uali
t
ative and q
u
antitativ
e
ana
lysis. While h
e
re
we j
u
st
revie
w
related
qu
antitative an
alysis
literatu
r
es,
the follo
wing
summa
ry provide
s
t
h
e
major i
s
sue
s
and findin
g
s i
n
the literature.
Liu Nan a
nd
Li Yan
(20
0
7
)
examin
e th
e ina
c
tive rel
a
tionship b
e
twee
n mo
dern
logisti
c
s
indu
stry and
eco
nomi
c
de
velopment from persp
ec
ti
ve of the pro
m
otion of su
pply and p
u
ll
of
deman
ds th
e
ca
se of Zheji
ang Provin
ce
as an
examp
l
e. In particul
a
r, they add
ress that there
is
indee
d intera
ctive relatio
n
s
hip b
e
twe
e
n
the two wi
th
the method
of Grain
ger
causality test [5].
Zhang
Hong
bo a
nd P
eng
Yan
(2
009
)
usin
g lo
gisti
c
mod
e
l
with
empiri
cal
re
search
metho
d
to
analysi
s
the
mech
ani
sm t
hat mod
e
rn l
ogisti
cs
on
re
gional
econo
mic g
r
o
w
th [6
]. Lin Haih
ua
and
Lin Haiying
(2010
)
colle
ct
the rel
e
vant d
a
ta of
Inne
r
Mongoli
a
regi
on 19
88 to
2
007, e
s
tabli
s
hin
g
eco
nomet
ric
model, in
ad
dition, the a
u
t
hor a
dopt
s
the math
emati
cs to
ol of
stationarity te
st a
nd
cointe
gratio
n test,
then con
s
tru
c
t
an erro
r
corre
c
ti
on
model, finally
they dra
w
th
e co
ncl
u
si
on
that
logisti
cs i
ndu
stry of Inn
e
r
Mongoli
a
pla
y
s a lo
ng-
te
rm and
stabl
e
role
on its e
c
onomi
c
g
r
o
w
th [7].
Zhu Wei, Ta
ng Zhen a
n
d
Wang Shuy
un (20
12) in
vestigate the
correlation
betwe
en logi
stics
indu
stry an
d
economi
c
d
e
velopme
n
t, take S
han
d
o
ng
Province as an exam
ple.
The
a
r
ticle
adopt
s metho
d
of empi
rical
analysi
s
, de
monst
r
ating
t
hat there i
s
mutual p
r
om
oting rel
a
tion
ship
betwe
en logi
stics ind
u
stry a
nd its econo
mi
c develo
p
m
ent of Shan
dong Province [8].
While
the
s
e
literatu
r
e
s
i
n
dom
esti
c
prov
ide
diffe
rent q
ualitati
v
e and
qua
ntitative
resea
r
ch p
e
rspe
ctives on
the inte
ra
ctive relati
o
n
shi
p
bet
wee
n
lo
gistics i
ndu
st
ry and
regio
nal
eco
nomi
c
de
velopment. Howeve
r, owi
n
g to differ
ent
regio
nal sco
pe the relatio
n
shi
p
betwee
n
the two
may
exhibit differe
nt regi
onal
dif
f
eren
ce
s, wh
at's m
o
re,
so
far, literature
s
related
to t
h
is
rega
rd
of He
nan P
r
ovince
are
only
a li
mited nu
mbe
r
of
re
sea
r
ch: Shang
Huifa
ng a
nd
Wan
g
Fei
(200
9)
surve
y
the contribu
tion t
hat
logis
t
ics ind
u
st
ry
make
s t
o
e
c
o
nomic d
e
velo
pment of Hen
a
n
Province, u
s
i
ng p
r
in
cipal
compon
ent a
n
d
re
gressi
on
analysi
s
,
the con
c
lu
sio
n
s d
e
mon
s
trate
that
the forme
r
p
r
odu
ce
s si
gnificant
contri
but
ion to the la
tt
er, ho
weve
r, it lacks of
cert
ain obje
c
tivity in
determi
ning t
he p
r
in
cipal
compon
ent fa
ctors [9]. Z
han
g Peng
wei
(2
010) al
so
ado
pts the
metho
d
of pri
n
cip
a
l
compon
ent a
n
a
lysis,
ba
sin
g
on
t
he foll
owin
g three
factors
as d
e
mand,
physical
capital i
n
vest
ment an
d hu
man
capital i
n
vestment,
concl
uding
tha
t
the logi
stics indu
stry
in He
nan
Province ha
s a role in p
r
o
m
oting on its econ
omi
c
de
velopment [1
0]. Wu Lijun
et al. also st
udy
the relatio
n
sh
ip betwe
en lo
gistics an
d re
gional
e
c
o
n
o
m
ic devel
op
ment [11-1
3
]. Comp
are
d
with
the above lit
eratu
r
e
s
re
se
arching
on
Henan P
r
ovin
ce
, this a
r
ticle
is mo
re
com
p
reh
e
n
s
ive a
nd
obje
c
tive in selectin
g the explanato
r
y variabl
es
, in a
ddition the sample data
(1990
-20
10) a
r
e
more co
mple
te,
thus con
c
lusio
n
s of
an
empiri
cal
st
udy on
Hen
a
n
Provin
ce d
r
awi
ng from t
h
is
pape
r have th
e pra
c
tical
ref
e
ren
c
e valu
e.
3. Model Co
nstru
c
tion
3.1. Metrics
Selection an
d Source of
Data
(1)
The i
ndex
system
of lo
gist
ics in
du
stry: In gene
ral
,
the
develop
ment of the l
ogisti
c
s
indu
stry is m
a
inly determi
ned by tran
sp
ortation,
wa
re
hou
sing an
d level of logistics ma
nag
em
ent.
Given maneuverability of the model
as
well as accessibility of the dat
a, we
select freight traff
i
c
volume, passenge
r traffic volume, freight
turnov
er volu
me and pa
ssenge
r turnov
er volume to be
measure inde
xes in this pa
per.
Freig
h
t (pa
ssenge
r) traffic refers to in
a ce
rtain pe
riod of time, the actu
al shi
p
men
t
quantity by a
variety of me
ans
of tran
sp
ort (p
asse
ng
er).T
he ind
e
x is a q
uantity of se
rvice in
d
e
x
whi
c
h reflect
s
the tran
spo
r
t indu
stry for the
nation
a
l
eco
nomy an
d
peopl
e's living, but al
so
are
the main in
di
cators th
at can in
stru
ct re
lat
ed de
part
m
ent to work out and
exa
m
ine p
r
od
uct
i
on
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TELKOM
NIKA
ISSN:
2302-4
046
An Em
pirical Analysis on the Rel
a
tionship
Between Logisti
c
Indu
stry... (Yu-pi
ng
Chu)
1007
plan
s of
tran
spo
r
tation
a
s
well
a
s
stud
y t
he scale a
nd spe
e
d
of transpo
rtation
develo
p
men
t
.
Freig
h
t (p
assenge
r) turn
over volu
me
ref
e
rs to in
a
ce
rtain p
e
rio
d
o
f
time, by all
mean
s of
goo
ds
transpo
rt (pa
s
seng
er) n
u
m
ber corre
s
p
ondin
g
to t
h
e
su
m of th
e p
r
odu
ct
of di
stance. Thi
s
i
n
dex
can
refle
c
t the total outco
me of tran
sp
ortation p
r
o
d
u
ction. It's al
so the m
a
in
basi
c
d
a
ta to
work
out and
exa
m
ine p
r
od
uction plan
s o
f
transpor
tati
on
a
s
well as cal
c
ulate
the
tran
sp
ort
ef
f
i
cien
cy
，
la
bor p
r
od
uctivi
ty and transp
o
rt unit co
st
accou
n
ting. T
herefo
r
e, the
above index
es
can i
n
a
certa
i
n level refle
c
t the develop
ment leve
l an
d pro
c
e
s
s of l
ogisti
cs i
ndu
stry of a co
unt
ry
or an are
a
.
g
i
ven
this
situ
ation we sel
e
ct
the
ab
ove
indexe
s
a
s
measurement
of the
logi
sti
c
s
indu
stry in He
nan province.
Takin
g
the freight and
pa
ssen
ger t
r
affic
volume in the
same
co
untry or are
a
can
be in a
high correlati
on into co
nsi
deratio
n, we
pro
c
e
ss the t
w
o to be unif
i
ed pa
sseng
e
r
traffic volu
me
equivalent. Si
milarly the freight turn
ove
r
volume
and
passe
nge
r turnove
r
volu
me are unifie
d
to
be pa
sseng
er turnover volu
me equivale
n
t
.
(2) T
he inde
x of econom
ical devel
op
ment: Econo
mic develo
p
m
ent can b
e
simply
defined a
s
p
r
odu
cts
or
service
s
a
co
untry produ
ced in
cre
a
se i
n
total, nam
ely refers to
the
increa
se in the numbe
r of all the final produ
cts t
hat
a count
ry or a regio
n
by using a variety
o
f
variou
s pro
d
u
ctive factors. In this article
we
still take the met
hod of com
m
on econom
etric
analysi
s
, sel
e
ct the regio
n
a
l
GDP as the
eco
nomi
c
de
velopment in
dicato
r.
(3) Sou
r
ce
of data: Statisti
cal Y
earboo
k of
th
e Na
tion
a
l
Bur
e
au
an
d
H
e
na
n Pro
v
in
c
e
Statistics (19
90---2
011
).Th
e data is give
n in Table 1.
Table 1. 199
0
-
201
0 GDP of
Hena
n provi
n
ce
a
nd ind
e
x
es of its logi
stics indu
stry
year
y
x1
x2
x3
x4
y1
y2
1990
934.65
38111.00
53567.00
423.46
1169.44
95525.69
1788.559
1991
1045.73
39923.00
53846.00
459.53
1199.31
95977.90
1811.418
1992
1279.75
44081.00
58096.00
511.40
1302.34
102977.80
1859.585
1993
1660.18
47347.00
61285.00
538.45
1337.03
108367.20
1891.862
1994
2216.83
50988.00
62826.00
566.29
1432.97
111013.70
1930.205
1995
2988.37
53582.00
61964.00
573.85
1538.82
109529.90
1941.515
1996
3634.69
55920.00
66490.00
584.25
1603.52
117416.30
1957.699
1997
4041.09
56113.00
69863.00
620.28
1547.18
123447.70
2019.378
1998
4308.24
58150.00
74182.00
640.16
1452.74
131362.60
2057.137
1999
4517.94
59218.00
78009.00
689.89
1432.08
138556.10
2163.198
2000
5052.99
60678.00
83912.00
740.98
1476.51
149983.70
2289.431
2001
5533.01
65191.00
85412.00
779.93
1573.28
152951.70
2397.137
2002
6035.48
68397.00
90334.00
820.83
1649.22
162873.60
2521.781
2003
6867.70
69689.00
81323.00
822.92
1891.73
144922.00
2528.437
2004
8553.79
73796.00
91013.00
963.09
2107.26
164264.30
3041.680
2005
10587.42
78827.00
98099.00
1000.70
2282.60
179095.80
3201.811
2006
12362.79
86608.00
108060.00
1113.77
2415.89
200926.30
3740.352
2007
15012.46
101410.00
122557.00
1264.10
2729.30
234747.70
4589.128
2008
18018.53
138392.00
130436.00
1517.33
5215.84
254147.70
6361.540
2009
19480.46
169643.00
144666.00
1645.18
6146.09
291004.70
7419.752
2010
23092.36
202470.00
167804.00
1840.64
7141.82
355931.70
9249.460
y, x
1
, x
2
, x
3
a
nd x
4
represe
n
t resp
ectivel
y
GDP, freight
traffic
volume, pass
e
nger traffic
volume, freig
h
t turnove
r
volume
p
a
sse
nger tu
rnove
r
volume. y
1
and y
2
are
the data af
ter
pro
c
e
ssi
ng.
(4) P
r
o
c
e
ssi
n
g
method
of
the data: Ta
king the freigh
t traffic volu
me x
1
and p
a
ssen
ger
traffic
volume x
2
in the
sa
me count
ry o
r
a
r
ea
ca
n b
e
in
a
hig
h
correlation
s
in
to acco
unt, we
make
reg
r
e
s
sion a
nalysi
s
after observing sca
tter prog
ram of
the two, finally find while
reg
r
e
ssi
on f
o
rmul
a i
s
x
1
(e
stimate v
a
lue
of x
1
)=5.78*10
-6
*x
2
2
+25
373.4
2
, good
ne
ss-of-f
i
t
is
highe
r, and it also in a
c
cordan
ce with th
e eco
nom
i
c
si
gnifica
nce, passe
s t
he sta
t
istical test, then
we g
e
t a
new va
ria
b
l
e
: passe
nge
r turnover
volume e
qui
valent y
1
=x
2
+x
1
'=x
2
+5.7
8*
10
-
6
*x
2
2
+25373.
42. Similarly there is
x
4
(estim
ate value
of x
4
)=-
3.3269
16*x
3
+0.0033
53*x
3
2
+21
72.66, h
e
re
we get
anothe
r ne
w variable p
a
s
seng
er turn
over
volume equiv
a
lent y
2
=x
3
+x
4
'-2.326
916*x
3
+0.003
353*x
3
2
+2172.6
6
).
Source
of d
a
ta: 199
0-2011
years
of
Nati
onal B
u
re
au
of Statistics "
s
tatistical yea
r
boo
k of
Hen
an provin
ce" and "Stati
stical Yea
r
b
o
o
k" rel
a
ted da
ta to be pro
c
e
s
sed.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
ISSN: 23
02-4
046
TELKOM
NIKA
Vol. 11, No. 2, Februa
ry 2013 : 1005 – 1011
1008
3.2. Cons
tru
c
tion and M
odificatio
n of the Mod
e
l
This p
ape
r we sel
e
ct rele
vant data of
Hen
an Provi
n
ce from 19
90-2
010
ann
ual year.
Whe
r
e G
D
P i
s
cho
s
en to b
e
depe
nde
nt variable, p
a
ssen
ger t
r
affic
equivalent y
1
and pa
ssen
g
e
r
traffic turnov
er eq
uivalent
y
2
are respe
c
tively rega
rd
ed as in
dep
e
ndent varia
b
l
e
s. We
esta
b
lish
the initial reg
r
ession mo
del
as belo
w
:
y
=
0
+
1
y
1
+
2
*
y
2
+
(1)
y, y
1
and y
2
respe
c
tively repre
s
e
n
t G
D
P, passen
g
e
r
traffic
equiv
a
lent a
nd
pa
sseng
er
traffic turnove
r
equivale
nt. While
0
is
c
o
ns
tant,
t
is ran
d
om error.
3.2.1. Establish Reg
r
essi
on Model
(1) Prelimina
r
y analysis of the scante
r
progra
m
s
Figure 1. Sca
n
ter Prog
ram
of y and y
1
Fi
g
u
re 2. Sca
n
te
r Prog
ram of
y and y
2
Figure 1 and
Figure 2
sh
ow that there
exis
t approximately liner
relation
shi
p
b
e
twee
n
GDP with its
passe
nge
r volume equival
ent and pa
ss
enge
r turnov
er volume eq
uivalent of Hena
n
Province, given this
situation, we mig
h
t first con
s
id
er model of mu
ltiple liner reg
r
essio
n
. Re
sult
of regressio
n
sho
w
n a
s
Fig
u
re 3 by soft
ware of Eviews 6.0.
Figure 3. Re
sults of Multiple Liner
Reg
r
e
ssi
on
It can be
see
n
from the
re
gre
ssi
on resu
lts by
observi
ng Figu
re 3:
eco
nomi
c
si
g
n
ifican
ce
of passen
ger traffic turno
v
er equivale
n
t
y
2
is not accordan
ce
with actual
situ
ation, and its t-
statistics al
so
doe
sn’t pa
ss the test. Th
us m
u
ltip
le li
near re
gre
s
si
on results i
s
not sati
sfacto
ry,
then the follo
wing
we correct the model
above.
3.2.2. Model Upda
ting an
d Verificatio
n
Combi
ned
with the scat
t
er diag
ram
and practi
cal expe
rien
ce, after nu
mero
us
adju
s
tments,
finally we get the reg
r
e
ssi
o
n
res
u
lt
s
sho
w
n a
s
Figu
re
4.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TEL
K
incre
a
modi
f
equi
v
them
signi
f
that'
s
turn
o
res
p
e
indic
a
signi
f
the fi
2
=6.
6
the r
e
K
OM
NIKA
An E
m
y
= -12
8
t=
(-14.
R
2
= 0.
9
9
1) Eco
n
o
Und
e
r n
o
a
se
s o
r
t
he
p
f
ied reg
r
es
s
v
alent y
1
an
d
are fit i
n
w
f
ic
anc
e
t
e
s
t.
2) Statist
F
= 13
s
to s
a
y the
c
o
ver
volume
e
R
2
=0.
The
c
e
ctively are
a
ting the re
g
f
i
c
ant.
3) Heter
o
nal r
e
su
lt
s
a
6
59
<
0.05
（
5
4) Autoc
o
e
s
u
lt
s a
r
e sh
m
pirical Ana
ly
Fig
u
15
1.70
0
5
183)
9
3
F
=1
3
6
mi
c signif
i
c
a
o
rma
l
cir
c
u
m
p
a
s
s
e
ng
er t
r
s
io
n re
sul
t
s
d
pa
ss
en
ge
r
w
ith re
al e
c
o
n
ical signifi
ca
61.01
0
>
F
0
c
om
bine
d ef
f
e
quivale
n
t
y
2
993, in
dicati
c
or
res
p
on
d
i
n
0.002
2, 0.
0
g
ress
ion par
a
o
sk
e
dast
i
cit
y
a
re
sh
ow
n a
s
5
）
=1
1.070
5
，
o
rrel
ation te
s
ow
n
as
be
lo
Figure
I
S
ly
sis o
n
t
he
R
u
re 4. R
e
gr
e
s
5
113.33
2
6
1.01
0
D
W
a
nc
e
te
s
t
m
st
an
c
e
s,
G
D
r
affic
turnov
e
in Figure
4
traffic
t
u
rno
v
n
o
m
ic
s
i
gnif
nc
e
te
s
t
(s
ig
.05
( 2,18 )=3
f
ect of pass
e
2
on GDP is
s
n
g
the mod
e
n
g
values
0
000, evid
e
n
a
m
e
ters are
tes
t.
A
s f
o
r
h
s
the
abov
e
thus we sa
y
Figure 5.
s
t. With reg
a
w:
6. Re
sults o
f
S
SN: 2302-4
0
R
el
ation
s
h
i
p
s
sio
n
Re
sul
t
s
)
1
log(
y
9
(3.560)
W
=1
.105
n
D
P would
in
c
e
r e
quivale
n
t
4
: c
oeffic
i
e
n
v
er volum
e
e
ican
ce, indi
c
nifican
c
e le
v
.55, demo
n
s
e
nger traffic
v
s
ignific
a
nt.
e
l ha
s a
high
e
of t-statist
i
n
tly both
a
r
signifi
cant,
h
etero
s
ced
a
: Figure 5
U
y
the model
Re
s
u
lts of
W
a
rd to
autoc
o
f
Firs
t
-order
A
0
46
Between L
o
g
s
After Corr
e
9
416. 539
l
(
n
=21
（
1
990
-
c
re
as
e
as
th
t
incr
ea
se
s.
n
t
sy
mbol
s
quivalent y
2
c
ating that t
h
v
el
=5%
)
s
trating the
m
v
olume eq
ui
v
e
r
g
o
od
ne
ss
i
cs
of inde
p
r
e l
e
ss th
a
n
namely thei
r
sticity t
e
st,
w
U
nder sig
n
ifi
c
do
esn't exhi
b
W
hite Test
o
rrelatio
n te
s
A
uto
c
orre
lat
g
ist
i
c I
ndu
st
r
e
ct
ion
)
2
l
og(
y
(
8.712)
-
201
0
）
e pa
ssen
ge
r
It can
be
ea
s
of passen
g
are both
p
o
s
h
e model
c
a
m
odel a
s
a
w
v
a
l
ent y
1
an
d
of fit.
p
en
dent va
r
n
significanc
r
r
e
spec
tive
w
e adopt
me
t
c
an
c
e
le
ve
l
b
it heteros
k
e
s
t, we use
m
ion Test
r
y
... (Yu-
p
in
g
r traffic
equi
s
y to find fr
o
g
er traffic
v
o
s
it
ive, thus
b
a
n p
a
ss
ec
o
w
hole is
signi
d
passen
ger
r
iable
s
y
1
a
e level 5%
,
impact on
G
t
ho
d of
Whit
e
=5%, due
t
e
da
sti
c
ity
m
ethod of
L
M
g
Chu
)
1009
(2)
v
alent
o
m the
o
lume
b
oth
of
nomic
ficant,
traffic
nd y
2
,
th
u
s
G
DP
is
e
tes
t,
t
o
nr
M
tes
t
,
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TEL
K
1010
auto
c
mod
e
the
m
squ
a
r
third
-
auto
c
equa
4. C
o
mod
e
eco
n
o
a po
indu
s
gro
w
t
K
OM
NIKA
V
I
t
'
s ea
sy
c
orrelatio
n
a
e
l we then u
s
m
odel, re
sult
s
F
A
cco
rdi
n
g
r
es
is
s
h
o
w
n
y
=-1
2
2
6
t=
(-13.
8
R
2
=0.
9
9
(In w
h
ic
h
-
ord
e
r se
rial
c
orrelatio
n
a
tio
n
as t
he
a
o
nclusio
n
s
On the
o
e
l:
(1) T
her
e
o
mi
c growth
s
i
tive effec
t
s
try woul
d in
(2) L
ogi
s
t
h. Specific
V
ol. 11, No.
2
Figure 7
Figure
8
to find from
nd third-o
r
d
e
s
e Eviews 6
.
s
ar
e
as
fo
ll
o
F
igure 9. Re
s
g
to the o
u
n
a
s
bel
ow:
6
77.8
+
3997.
0
8
38)
9
6
F
= 8
7
2
AR(1), AR(
3
co
rrel
a
tio
n
).
fter reu
s
i
ng
a
bove.
o
ne hand, w
e
ind
eed exi
s
, qu
alitativel
y
on it
s e
c
o
n
a certai
n ex
t
s
tics industr
y
qu
antitativel
y
2
, Februa
ry
.
R
e
sult
s of
S
8
. Results
o
f
Figu
re 6, Fi
e
r
a
u
t
oc
or
re
.
0 with meth
o
win
g
:
s
ults of Gen
e
u
tput in
Fig
u
0
2
)
1
log(
y
(2.766)
2
.197
DW
3
) respectiv
e
Th
e m
o
d
e
l
method o
f
L
e ca
n
draw
s
t
s
c
o
rrel
a
tio
y
sp
ea
king,
n
o
m
ic
gr
ow
t
t
ent promot
e
y
of Hen
an
y
spe
a
ki
n
g
,
2013 : 100
5
S
ec
on
d
-
or
d
e
f
T
h
ir
d-
or
d
e
r
gu
re 7
and
F
lation. In or
d
od of gene
r
a
e
raliz
ed Diffe
u
re 9,
esti
m
+104
15.15
= 2.
799
n
e
ly represe
n
t
do
esn't exi
s
L
M tes
t, th
u
the f
o
llowin
n bet
ween l
o
logi
stics ind
u
t
h, in other
e
its eco
nom
y
Provinc
e
h
a
if other co
n
d
5
– 1011
e
r
A
uto
c
orrel
Autoc
o
rrela
t
F
ig
ur
e
8 th
a
t
d
er to elimi
n
a
lized differ
e
rential Regr
e
m
ation
equa
t
)
2
log(
y
+
0
(9.238)
n
= 21
（
199
0
t
form
of
the
s
t firs
t-order,
s
we get th
e
g con
c
lu
sio
n
o
gi
st
ic
s i
ndu
s
u
st
ry
d
e
v
e
lo
words, the
y
developm
e
a
s sig
n
if
ica
n
d
itions rem
a
ation Te
st
t
ion Te
st
t
the mo
d
e
l
n
ate the aut
o
e
ntial regres
s
e
ssi
on Re
su
t
io
n of the
0
.536
)
1
(
*
AR
(2.80
2
0
-20
1
0
）
rand
om err
o
se
con
d
-o
r
d
e
final form
n
s
from the
s
try of He
na
pme
n
t o
f
H
e
de
ve
lo
p
m
e
n
e
nt;
n
tly impetus
a
in un
ch
ang
e
ISSN: 230
2
exhibits first
o
correlation
s
i
on to re-e
s
t
lt
s
ge
neralized
)
-0.608
AR
2
)
(-2.7
0
o
r is
firs
t-ord
e
d
er and
third
of the regr
e
ab
ove regr
e
n Provin
ce
a
e
na
n Provin
c
n
t of the lo
g
on its
eco
e
d
,
the pa
s
s
2
-4
046
-o
rde
r
of t
he
t
im
a
t
e
least
)
3
(
R
0
3)
e
r a
n
d
-o
rder
e
ss
ion
e
ss
ion
a
nd its
c
e ha
s
g
i
s
t
i
cs
nomi
c
s
en
ger
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TELKOM
NIKA
ISSN:
2302-4
046
An Em
pirical Analysis on the Rel
a
tionship
Between Logisti
c
Indu
stry... (Yu-pi
ng
Chu)
1011
traffic
volume y
1
for each
a
dditional of 1
0
million pe
rsons
will d
r
ive the total GDP
an incre
a
se of
3997.0
231 bi
llion yuan; the sa
me token, if ot
her
con
d
ition
s
re
main un
cha
n
ged un
der t
he
premi
s
e, th
e
passe
nge
r tu
rnove
r
volum
e
y
2
for
every
increa
se
of one billion pe
rso
n
-kilom
e
te
rs,
the GDP of the whol
e pro
v
ince will ma
ke an in
crea
se of 10415.1
51 billion yua
n
, indicating t
hat
logist
i
c
s
ind
u
st
ry
Hen
a
n
P
r
ov
in
ce h
a
s a signi
fi
cant role in
stimulating
o
n
its
econo
mic
developm
ent.
On the other hand, due to the logi
stics indu
stry in Chin
a start
e
d
relatively late, thus it
has
not yet establi
s
h
ed a
unified ind
e
x
system
on
logisti
cs i
ndu
stry, in additi
on the logi
sti
c
s
indu
stry itself
would b
e
infl
uen
ced by m
any other
fa
ctors, in ad
dition, the definit
ion of the ind
e
x
system i
s
no
t entirely
cle
a
r, the
r
efore, in this
arti
cl
e we ju
st on
ly sele
ct ap
p
r
oximate in
d
e
x
system to measure the d
e
velopme
n
t of the logi
stics indust
ry, thus in which may exist some
factors we didn't taking int
o
accou
n
t, so
some p
r
obl
e
m
s still nee
d furthe
r re
sea
r
ch.
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