TELKOM
NIKA Indonesia
n
Journal of
Electrical En
gineering
Vol. 12, No. 8, August 201
4, pp. 5963 ~ 5968
DOI: 10.115
9
1
/telkomni
ka.
v
12i8.606
8
5963
Re
cei
v
ed Ap
ril 7, 2014; Re
vised Ma
y 25
, 2014; Accep
t
ed Jun
e
14, 2014
Peak Load Chopping Applying Fuzzy Bayesian
Technique for Regional Load Management-
Performance Evaluation
A
r
indam Kumar Sil
1
*, N. K. Deb
1
, Ash
o
k Kum
a
r M
a
itra
2
1
Departme
n
t of Electrical En
gi
neer
ing,
Ja
dav
pur Un
iversit
y
, Kolkata, Indi
a
2
Departme
n
t of Electrical En
gi
neer
ing, Be
nga
l Engi
neer
in
g a
nd Scie
nce U
n
i
v
ersit
y
, Shi
b
p
u
r Ho
w
r
ah, Ind
i
a
*
C
o
rre
sp
on
d
i
ng
a
u
t
h
o
r
, e
-mail
: a
k
_
s
i
l
@
y
ahoo
.co
.
i
n
A
b
st
r
a
ct
In this
pa
per F
u
zz
y
Bay
e
sia
n
Synthetic
al
go
ri
thm b
a
sed
method
ol
ogy
ha
s be
en
eva
l
uat
ed for
its
perfor
m
a
n
ce
u
s
ing r
eal ti
me
data for c
hop
pi
ng off p
eak
loa
d
de
man
d
. T
h
e
pap
er d
eals
w
i
th the
nu
mb
er
of
cond
itions
that
are
to b
e
c
o
nsid
ered
for th
e ch
opp
in
g of
pe
ak d
e
m
a
n
d
an
d th
ere
after ev
alu
a
tin
g
t
h
e
prop
osed
meth
od by us
in
g re
al ti
me d
a
ta from
loa
d
dis
pat
ch centers for
pred
icting
a ne
w
peak de
man
d
pertai
n
in
g to chop
pin
g
of the peak d
e
m
an
d on for a gi
ven
day. T
h
is is achiev
ed by ju
dic
i
ously sch
ed
uli
n
g
loa
d
fro
m
the r
egi
ona
l l
oad
u
nder
a n
e
w
loa
d
man
a
g
e
m
ent
techni
qu
e. T
h
i
s
techni
qu
e val
i
dates th
e ti
me
ly
decisi
on
makin
g
cap
a
city of the syste
m
to r
educ
e pe
ak d
e
m
a
nd
henc
e g
i
ving
us a ch
an
ce to red
u
ce t
h
e
peak
de
man
d
and
he
nce
red
u
ce th
e stress
of g
ener
atin
g
excess
pow
er
duri
n
g
the
pe
ak p
e
rio
d
. T
h
i
s
meth
od us
es d
a
ta of a previ
o
us day a
nd the
n
pred
icts
for the next d
a
y. T
hus by ev
alu
a
ti
ng this pr
ocess
it
w
a
s found th
at the new
p
eak
de
ma
nd
has a
reduc
ed va
lu
e
as co
mp
ared t
o
the act
ual
pe
ak de
mand. It i
s
evid
ent that this metho
d
can
not
only re
duc
e peak d
e
m
an
d by chop
pin
g
of the regio
nal
loa
d
s by follow
i
n
g
the prop
ose
d
alg
o
rith
m but
also h
e
lps i
n
gen
eratin
g
in
di
rect revenu
e by savin
g
en
e
r
gy. T
h
is meth
od
authe
nticates
the
prop
ose
d
meth
od
an
d s
a
ves
peak
de
ma
nd
or
other
w
i
se en
ergy
b
y
ab
out ten
to
fifty
me
gaw
atts o
n
da
ily
basis
d
epe
ndi
ng
on
t
he s
e
rvice
co
nditi
on
of the
netw
o
rk an
d s
o
lar
day
li
ght
hour
avail
a
b
ility ove
r
span of a day
.
Ke
y
w
ords
:
en
ergy man
a
g
e
ment, peak l
oad,
regio
nal l
o
a
d
, fu
zz
y
Bay
e
sia
n
techniq
u
e
Copy
right
©
2014 In
stitu
t
e o
f
Ad
van
ced
En
g
i
n
eerin
g and
Scien
ce. All
rig
h
t
s reser
ve
d
.
1. Introduc
tion
This pa
pe
r deals
with the propo
se
d proce
s
s of cho
pping of pea
k dema
nd u
s
ing a
n
artificial intell
igent techniq
ue ba
se
d on
mat
hemati
c
al modeli
ng
dra
w
n from f
u
zzy Bayesi
an
techni
que. T
he tech
nique
evaluates th
e pro
c
e
ss
o
n
sco
ring of p
o
ints by different re
gion
s or
places un
der co
nsi
d
e
r
atio
n for sha
r
ing
of p
o
we
r
for
pe
ak
po
wer
re
d
u
c
t
io
n
.
T
h
e
p
r
op
os
ed
method
con
s
i
ders pe
ak
po
wer dem
and
s of different
states
or
regi
ons i
n
India f
o
r thei
r po
we
r
sha
r
ing
and f
o
llowed by a j
udici
ou
s met
hod of loa
d
m
anag
ement b
y
sheddi
ng of
load on
prio
ri
ty
basi
s
. Th
e p
r
iority is
set
b
y
the fuzzy b
a
sie
an te
ch
nique
whi
c
h
co
mpre
hen
ds the b
o
th p
r
e
s
ent
power p
a
ttern
s an
d othe
r a
s
pe
cts to
be
kept in
co
nsi
deratio
n for
such l
oad
man
ageme
n
t a
s
wel
l
as po
we
r sh
aring. The p
r
esent tech
ni
que as a m
e
thodol
ogy has bee
n termed as
DL
S
techni
que. DLS – Day Lig
h
t Saving techniqu
e is wh
at
we call in
our p
r
o
c
e
ss. In this process the
sola
r d
a
ylight
hou
r fo
r a
gi
ven re
gion
is first
eval
uat
ed. The
p
r
o
c
ess of fin
d
ing
sol
a
r
day lig
ht
hour i
s
cal
c
ul
ated by form
ulas
whi
c
h are alrea
d
y me
ntioned in o
u
r
earli
er rese
arch pap
er [1
].
Then
on th
e
ba
sis of av
ailability of
sun ray,
the
regio
n
s with
maximum
p
eak dem
and
is
con
s
id
ere
d
first whi
c
h is th
en co
mpa
r
ed
with are
a
s of
lesser p
e
a
k
power de
man
d
. Since the
s
e
places
und
er con
s
id
eratio
n are s
epa
rat
ed by q
u
ite a
lot po
sitional
distan
ce
cal
c
ulate
d
by th
eir
latitude and l
ongitud
e
therefore sepa
rati
on by distan
ce is equ
ated to time.
The Indi
an
standard time
is fixed all
over
the
co
u
n
try, but due
to cha
ngin
g
sola
r
positio
n, the l
o
cal
span
of
a day va
rie
s
,
therefo
r
e
as the
sola
r p
o
sit
i
on d
o
e
s
n’t re
main
sam
e
so
whe
n
we mo
ve from fa
r e
a
st to fa
r west throug
hout
t
he st
retch of t
he count
ry
it is foun
d that t
h
e
load p
a
ttern
doe
s al
so va
ries with th
e
local
su
nri
s
e
to sun
set timing. He
nce
usin
g this ti
me
differen
c
e
bet
wee
n
pla
c
e
s
in Fa
r Ea
st to
we
st we h
a
ve mad
e
a
pro
posal to
shift
or
she
d
loa
d
s
by a priority evaluation m
e
thod ba
se
d on fuzzy
basi
ean techniq
u
e
, such that certai
n load
s
can
be red
u
ced from the gri
d
redu
cin
g
so
me dema
nd
dire
ctly [2]. T
hus to do thi
s
and a
c
hi
eve a
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TELKOM
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KA
Vol. 12, No. 8, August 2014: 596
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5968
5964
con
s
id
era
b
le amount of
re
sult we pro
p
o
se
d
a
techn
i
que call
ed
fu
zzy ba
siea
n
t
e
ch
niqu
e whi
c
h
after ind
entifying the l
oad
s
whi
c
h
can
be
she
d
off the
deman
d a
nd
whi
c
h a
r
e
cal
c
ulate
d
by th
e
prop
osed alg
o
rithm which
has a pa
rti
c
ula
r
sco
r
ing
pattern an
d
finally evaluates out whi
c
h
particula
r lo
a
d
can
be
sh
ed o
u
t a
nd
whi
c
h
sh
ould
be
given
po
wer.
Thu
s
af
ter redu
cin
g
the
deman
d the
equivalent
a
m
ount of p
o
w
er so
gen
erat
ed out of lo
ad shed
ding
by this alg
o
rit
h
m,
and j
udi
ciou
s load
man
a
g
e
ment, po
we
r ca
n b
e
sen
d
acro
ss from
one
dema
nd
area
to a
noth
e
r
or othe
rwi
s
e
can b
e
sh
are
d
among utilit
ies with hi
ghe
r pea
k dem
an
d [3].
As we all
kn
o
w
that the federal
agen
cie
s
in India h
a
ve pro
p
o
s
ed a
n
ambitiou
s sche
m
e
“po
w
e
r
for all
by 2012”. Th
us to keep in
pace wi
th the
rapid in
du
stri
alizatio
n and
developm
ent it
is evident tha
t
a new rob
u
st energy man
ageme
n
t tech
nique h
a
s to
be develop
ed
so as to cate
r
the need of the time. In particula
r it is felt that
a fast,
time saving a
nd accu
rate
method woul
d be
able to hel
p tackl
e the cri
s
is
situation
of ener
gy ne
ed. Therefore a
ne
w re
n
e
wa
ble en
ergy
manag
eme
n
t techniqu
e was ne
ce
ssary
to be developed so a
s
th
at it can be used for effici
e
n
t
energy mana
gement.
2.
Calcula
t
ing Solar Da
y
Light Ho
ur
In this contex
t it is evident that use of
sun ray beco
m
es an imp
o
rtant factor fo
r saving
energy, and f
u
lfilling the shortfall. Usin
g sol
a
r b
a
sed
alternate
re
source
s will
b
e
also of inte
rest
for rem
o
te areas. In ge
ne
ral it is eviden
t that
the time for which
we receive solar
radiatio
n
or
sun
r
ays will
deci
de the
le
ngth of the
d
a
y and th
us
help u
s
to
de
cide th
e exa
c
t time and
areas
where
peak
demands
in morning a
nd in the evening
c
a
n be chopp
ed off. The
solar radiation
on
earth surfa
c
e
is a function of geomet
ry of the receivi
ng su
rface rel
a
tive to the sun. As explained
in the figure1
& 2 below it is evident that the
factors which will b
e
governi
ng the cal
c
ul
atio
n of
total daylight hour
whi
c
h is also ne
ce
ssary [5]. In
this context we n
eed to unde
rstand terms li
ke
sola
r d
e
cli
nat
ion a
ngle
δ
, solar tim
e
B a
nd la
stly calculation
of day
light ho
urs. S
o
lar
de
clinati
on
δ
is the angl
e betwe
en th
e sun
-
ea
rth centre
-to ce
ntre line and th
e proje
c
tion o
f
this line on the
equato
r
ial pla
ne. This i
s
given by:
δ
= 23.45
sin
[360/365
(28
4
+
n)];
Whe
r
e n is th
e day of the year.
Solar
Time i
s
the time
ba
sed o
n
the
ap
pare
n
t an
gul
ar m
o
tion
of the
sun
a
c
ro
ss the
sky,
with sol
a
r no
on the time the sun
cro
s
se
s the meri
dia
n
of the obse
r
ver.
Solar tim
e
=st
anda
rd tim
e
+4(L
st
- L
loc
) +E
.
Whe
r
e E i
s
th
e equ
ation of
time in minut
es, L
st
is th
e
stand
ard
meridian for l
o
cal
time zon
e
, a
n
d
L
loc
is the longitude of the locatio
n
in qu
estion in d
egrees e
a
st.
E= 9.87 sin 2
B
-7.53
c
o
s
B-1
.
5sinB
B= [360(n-8
1
)
]/364; whe
r
e
n= day
s of the year.
1
≤
n
≤
3
65
Figure 1
Figure 2
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TELKOM
NIKA
ISSN:
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046
Peak Lo
ad Choppi
ng Appl
ying Fu
zzy B
a
ye
sia
n
Te
ch
nique for
Reg
i
onal… (A
rind
am
Kum
a
r Sil)
5965
The hou
r ang
le
ω
of a poin
t
on the earth’s su
rface
is d
e
fined as the
angle through
which
the earth wou
l
d turn to brin
g the meridia
n
of the
point directly und
e
r
the sun. Th
us a co
ncl
u
si
ve
formulatio
n te
lls u
s
the
rela
tionshi
p b
e
tween th
e
di
fferent an
gle
s
a
n
d
he
nce th
e role of
sun
ra
y
in deci
d
ing th
e req
u
ire
m
en
t of electrical
power fr
o
m
p
l
ace to pl
ace. Thus from Fi
gure
1 & 2 the
angle
s
an
d the relation
shi
p
are as follo
ws:
Φ
=Latitud
e,
δ
=Decli
nation,
β
=sl
ope, that is, the angle
betwe
en the
plane
surfa
c
e
in questio
n
a
nd the hori
z
o
n
tal
γ
=su
r
fa
ce a
z
i
m
uth an
gle;
ω
=hou
r a
ngl
e;
θ
=
angl
e o
f
incide
nce, the an
gle of i
n
cid
e
n
c
e
of beam ra
dia
t
ion on a Surf
ace a
nd the n
o
rmal to that surfa
c
e.
The equ
ation
relating the a
ngle of beam
radiatio
n
θ
an
d the other a
ngle
s
is:
Co
s
θ
= {
s
in
δ
sin
Φ
co
s
β
– sin
δ
cos
Φ
sin
β
co
s
γ
+c
os
δ
co
s
Φ
cos
β
cos
ω
+c
os
δ
si
n
Φ
sin
β
co
s
γ
co
s
ω
+cos
δ
Sin
β
sin
γ
sin
ω
}.
For ho
rizontal
surfa
c
e
β
=0
° and the an
g
l
e of incide
nce is the ze
nith angle of the
sun
θ
z.
Thus we
hav
e:
Co
s
θ
z =
co
s
δ
co
s
Φ
co
s
ω
+
sin
δ
sin
Φ
.
The above e
q
uation can be
solved for th
e sun
s
et ho
ur angle
ω
s, wh
en
θ
z =
90°.
Co
s
ω
s=
-(s
in
Φ
sin
δ
/c
os
Φ
cos
δ
)
= - t
a
n
Φ
tan
δ
.
It also follows that the number of dayligh
t
hour s i
s
given by:
N=2/15 cos-1
(- tan
Φ
tan
δ
)
Thus fo
r any
given day at a particula
r point
on the
surfa
c
e of e
a
rth it is possible to
cal
c
ulate
a n
u
mbe
r
of day
light hou
rs. T
h
is b
a
si
ca
lly
help
s
u
s
in p
r
edi
cting the
total length o
f
a
day at any given point on
earth surfa
c
e.
Thus applyin
g
these
fo
rm
ulas we can cal
c
ul
ate the
total availabl
e sola
r daylig
ht hour.
Thereafter de
pendi
ng
upo
n the
re
sult
a
nd the
con
s
id
ered
day
in
a
given ye
ar
we
have i
nde
ed
set the
facto
r
by which the
load
s th
at coul
d be bro
u
ght
un
der DL
S
tech
nique.
We have
fo
u
nd
that 6 to 8 solar daylight h
ours are req
u
i
red fo
r
su
ch
DLS tech
niqu
e impleme
n
ta
tion for ene
rg
y
saving o
r
pea
k load
cal
c
ula
t
ion.
Table 1. Day
Light Ho
urs in a whol
e Year in India
Month
Average
sunlight
(hours/da
y)
Month
Average sunlight
(hours/da
y)
Januar
y 7.6
July
5.6
Februa
r
y
8.6
August
6.2
March
Apr
il
Ma
y
June
7.8
9.2
8.1
6.4
September
October
November
December
7.5
9.4
9.5
8.0
The latitude
and longitu
de that are
to be con
s
id
ered fo
r the
application
of DLS
techni
que
sh
ould h
a
ve at
least
8 to 1
0
hours
of day
light. The
reg
i
on in In
dia
suitable fo
r
su
ch
appli
c
ation
s
are st
ates al
ong the line
starti
ng from
We
st Bengal,
J
harkh
and, Madhya
Pra
d
e
sh,
Gujarat, Raja
sthan,
Delhi
and Punj
ab i
n
the no
rth,
and
south
e
rn
part of
Uttar Prade
sh. T
h
ese
states a
s
a
belt of a
r
ea
s ca
n be
utilized for DLS tech
niqu
e p
r
o
v
ided the
r
e i
s
a
sm
ooth
an
d
stable p
a
ttern
of demand. If there is an
abno
rmal
d
e
m
and
situatio
n whe
r
e the
r
e is a sh
arp rise
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or fall
of de
m
and, tha
n
wh
at wa
s
pre
d
icted coul
d
get
deviated
fro
m
the p
r
e
d
icti
on the
n
a
factor
of load define
d
as:
“load
re
du
ctio
n facto
r” i
s
suppo
se
d to b
e
in
tro
d
u
c
ed
su
ch that it
should
be b
r
o
ught into
action to a
c
hi
eve the desi
r
ed re
sult. Oth
e
rwi
s
e
syste
m
doesn’t wo
rk a
s
pe
r our
assumptio
n
s.
3.
Proposed
F
u
zz
y
Ba
y
esian and F
u
zz
y
s
y
nthetic Metho
dolog
y
to Red
u
ce Pea
k
Dem
a
nd
An algo
rithm
has be
en
dev
elope
d b
a
sed
on
Fu
zzy Ba
yesian
de
ci
si
on meth
od
to
predi
ct,
cal
c
ulate,
an
d dete
r
min
e
t
he exa
c
t am
o
unt of
pe
ak
po
w
e
r
de
man
d
. T
o
ac
h
i
e
v
e
th
is
, d
a
t
a us
ed
for sha
r
e
of p
o
we
r to
re
du
ce pe
ak dem
a
nd am
ong
st
region
s
are
co
nsid
ere
d
. Fo
r this, two
states
of the cou
n
try namely we
st Bengal
an
d Punjab a
r
e
con
s
ide
r
e
d
whi
c
h a
r
e th
e two regio
n
lying
apart in the F
a
r East an
d we
st
of the country. Two
states or
the
region
s are ap
art by about
one
hour time, which i
s
the ti
me differe
nce by whi
c
h th
e su
n ri
se
s l
o
cally. The
p
o
we
r de
man
d
an
d
gene
ration p
a
ttern for the
s
e state
s
are
almost sam
e
or nea
rly same [3, 6]. Both regio
n
s a
l
so
have simila
r
power patte
rn durin
g pea
k hou
rs.
Hen
c
e the alg
o
rit
h
m is suitabl
e for cal
c
ulat
ing
how
mu
ch
a
nd whi
c
h
loa
d
s ca
n be co
nsid
ere
d
fo
r
l
oad sh
eddi
ng
and hen
ce take
s ca
re of all
asp
e
ct
co
rrespondi
ng to
th
is a
nd th
en
d
e
termin
es ho
w to
ch
op
th
e pe
ak de
ma
nd a
nd
re
duce
the power
stress in the
s
e pea
k pe
rio
d
s. Ce
rtain
major a
s
p
e
ct
s like
geo
graphi
cal di
sta
n
ce,
available solar day light hour
, peak peri
od power pattern, tari
ff, human habit
s
of energy usage,
workin
g hou
rs and
system
conditio
n
s h
a
s be
en take
n into con
s
id
eration fo
r evaluating the l
oad
s
and th
eir
prio
rity setting. T
h
is m
e
thod
chop
s o
ff p
e
a
k
po
wer de
ma
nd by
abo
ut
50MW to 9
0
MW
as calculated
from our p
r
e
v
ious work [1
1]. In
this paper a furth
e
r
valedictio
n of this method
is
done
by predi
cting a
dem
a
nd patte
rn fo
r the region
of
we
st Ben
gal
whi
c
h i
s
cal
c
ulated from t
h
e
data availa
bl
e from o
u
r
previous fin
d
in
g .This i
s
a con
s
id
era
b
le amount
of en
ergy saved. On
daily ba
sis a
t
two of the
pea
k p
e
rio
d
s
subje
c
te
d
to othe
r ci
rcu
m
stan
ce
s. T
he alg
o
rithm
of
resea
r
ch method is
written
below for o
u
r finding and f
u
rthe
r valedi
ction of the sa
me.
a)
The state
s
or region u
nde
r con
s
ide
r
atio
n ar
e to foun
d out on the basi
s
of powe
r
dema
nd an
d
power g
ene
ration pattern. The
s
e both
regio
n
s
sh
oul
d be alm
o
st i
dentical po
wer ge
ne
ratio
n
or dem
and p
a
ttern.
b)
These
state
s
are
sup
p
o
s
ed to
be
ap
art g
eog
rap
h
i
c
ally by latitude and lon
g
itude whi
c
h
sho
u
ld
equat
e to time
differen
c
e
of
su
n ri
se
and
su
nset
by ab
ou
t 45 min
u
tes
to one
ho
ur
approximatel
y
c)
These regi
on
s are then ta
ken into a
c
c
ount on their demand pat
tern, load type and thei
r
ultimate usa
g
e
type on any given day, month or in a year.
d)
Then fu
zzy B
a
yesia
n
synt
hetic meth
od
is appl
i
ed o
n
these l
oad
s to determin
e
whi
c
h lo
ad
s
are to be
sup
p
lied with p
o
w
er imm
ediat
ely and whi
c
h
can be
she
d
of.
e)
This i
s
de
cid
ed by Fu
zzy
Bayesian te
chniqu
e
whi
c
h
evaluate
s
po
int score
d
by
load
s, on th
e
basi
s
of percentage of load
that can be
chopped off.
f)
This is again
achi
eved
by t
he
condition
prevailing to l
oads at
a given
time, clim
ate,
weather,
duratio
n of th
e day an
d work culture
of human
s
at that regio
n
, a
s
pe
cts li
ke
g
eographi
ca
l
dis
t
anc
e
, available
s
o
lar day
light hour,
peak
period power
pa
ttern, tariff, human habits
of
energy usa
g
e
,
working ho
u
r
s et
c are
con
s
ide
r
ed.
g)
Thus on that
basi
s
the loads
with hi
gh
scorin
g
will have high pri
o
rity power
supply whereas
low scoring loads
can be shed off.
h)
Load
s th
at
are
co
nsi
d
e
r
ed for this
appli
c
ati
on
a
r
e a
g
ri
cultu
r
al loa
d
, com
m
ercial l
oad
,
indu
strial loa
d
, public lig
hting etc.
Therefore in
our work wh
a
t
we sugg
est
ed wa
s alrea
d
y implement
ed usi
ng these data’s
obtaine
d from
Eastern regi
on load di
spa
t
ch ce
nter.
But to validate
the algorithm
it was esse
ntial
to predi
ct a p
o
we
r de
man
d
of a date
a
s
pe
r ou
r
suit
ability and to
find out ho
w much
of act
ual
deman
d co
ul
d have bee
n saved.
4.
Validation of Fuzzy
Sy
nth
e
tic Me
thod
In ord
e
r to ev
aluate th
e a
c
t
ual lo
ad that
will b
e
requi
red to
red
u
ce t
he p
e
a
k
d
e
m
and
and
also to asce
rt
ain the perfo
rmance of this algorit
hm; it wa
s deci
ded
to predi
ct a particul
a
r day’
s
power d
e
man
d
well in
adv
ance con
s
ide
r
ing all th
e
dif
f
erent types
of con
d
ition a
nd cl
au
se
s th
at
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TELKOM
NIKA
ISSN:
2302-4
046
Peak Lo
ad Choppi
ng Appl
ying Fu
zzy B
a
ye
sia
n
Te
ch
nique for
Reg
i
onal… (A
rind
am
Kum
a
r Sil)
5967
we
had
al
rea
d
y discu
s
sed
in ou
r
previo
u
s
re
sea
r
ch
work [9], [3-4]. So what
we
d
i
d is to
co
nsi
d
er
the po
we
r de
mand fo
r a
p
a
rticul
ar
day i
n
a given
mo
nth of a yea
r
.
We d
e
ci
ded t
o
wo
rk on
a d
a
ta
that wa
s of th
e sa
me d
a
y b
u
t about
a m
onth befo
r
e.
So that usi
n
g
it we
can
pre
d
ict the foll
owing
date’s po
we
r deman
d. In orde
r to
achie
v
e it we got
data of 10
th
Janua
ry 2011,
using which we
predi
cted
the
deman
d p
a
ttern
of 10
th
F
e
brua
ry 20
11.
Then
we
hav
e compa
r
ed
it with the
a
c
tu
al
data of the same day o
b
tained from th
e load di
sp
atch
cente
r
. What we fou
n
d
wa
s exactly
the
same
a
s
we
had
prove
d
in
ou
r e
a
rlie
r p
apers. T
he
re
sults a
r
e
sh
o
w
n i
n
the
Mat
l
ab p
r
og
ram
m
ing
and pl
ot. The
two time
s
co
nsid
ere
d
a
r
e
morni
ng 9:0
0
am an
d that
of evening
9:
00 pm. In
bot
h
these pla
c
e
s
we find pea
k
power ha
s re
duced by
abo
ut 57.5MW a
nd 74M
W re
spectively as
wa
s
earlie
r predi
cted by us.
The entire
concept of load
reduction is based
on utiliz
ing two main mathematical
model
s. On
e
Fuzzy Bayesi
an Te
ch
nique
for sco
r
in
g a
nd loa
d
ide
n
tification fo
r sh
aring
of po
we
r
betwe
en regi
ons
or
state
s
[4]. There
a
fter u
s
i
ng th
e
Fuzzy Synthetic meth
od t
o
evaluate th
e
amount of loa
d
that can be
she
d
off to reduce pea
k de
mand [1].
This pa
rticul
ar
p
ape
r
i
s
written ke
epi
ng
th
e
process of val
e
d
i
ction
of the
se
co
nd
mathemati
c
al
model. Even though both
the models
are con
s
ide
r
ed for evalua
tion of load and
t
hereaf
t
e
r it
s su
cc
es
s.
5.
Resul
t
and Conclusion
Figure 3. Cha
nge in Pea
k
Dema
nd after Applying DL
S Techni
que
6. Conclu
sion
It is fou
nd th
a
t
much of
the
predi
ction
ha
s h
e
lpe
d
in
re
duci
ng th
e p
e
a
k
dem
and
b
y
about
50-1
00 M
W
. Such ki
nd of mathemati
c
al
model
to red
u
ce
d pea
k de
mand is a
su
ccess only whe
n
the sola
r
ray
availability an
d judi
cio
u
s sche
duling
of l
oad i
s
don
e.
Load
ide
n
tification, de
man
d
redu
ction
by load
s of less prio
rity is utmost im
p
o
rt
a
n
t
in su
ch
ki
nd of
wo
r
k
.
We al
so
sug
ges
t
identifying such m
e
thod
s with better performan
ce so that it beco
m
e
s
a
new rene
wable
techni
que for peak po
we
r redu
ction. Ot
her countri
es or regio
n
s fo
llowing thi
s
method can ch
o
p
off peak dem
and. Thu
s
it is evident that this method
is a very robu
st yet very effective metho
d
to
redu
ce p
e
a
k
deman
d.
Referen
ces
[1]
Arindam Kumar Sil, Nirmal Kumar Deb, As
hok Ku
ma
r Mai
t
ra
. En
e
r
gy
Sa
vi
ng
by
Ch
opp
i
n
g
o
ff
Pe
a
k
Dema
nd Usi
n
g
Da
y
Lig
h
t.
T
E
LKOMNIKA, Indon
esia
n Jour
nal
of El
ectric
al Eng
i
n
eeri
n
g
.
2011; 9(
2):
395-
400, e-ISS
N
: 2087-
27
8
X
(p-ISSN: 1693-
693
0)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
ISSN: 23
02-4
046
TELKOM
NI
KA
Vol. 12, No. 8, August 2014: 596
3 –
5968
5968
[2]
Ahuj
a DR, Gu
pta DPS, Agra
w
a
l
VK. En
erg
y
Sav
i
n
g
s fro
m
Advanc
ing t
he Ind
i
a
n
Stan
dard T
i
me b
y
Half an H
our. Current Sci
enc
e. 2007; 9
3
(3): 101-
106.
[3]
Sil AK, Deb
NK, Maitra AK, Sen, PS. Choppin
g Off Peak Demand Using DLS T
e
chnique Formulating
an Intel
lig
ent
T
e
chnique f
o
r Lo
ad Ide
n
t
ification
. IEE
E
Internatio
na
l Conf
erenc
e
on Ind
u
strial
T
e
chno
logy (IC
I
T
)
.
Chile. 201
0: 909-9
13.
[4]
Sil AK, De
b
NK, Maitra AK
.
Chop
pi
ng off
Peak
Loa
d B
e
tw
een Si
mi
lar
Group States
-Using
DL
S
T
e
chni
que.
Int
e
rnati
ona
l Co
n
f
erence
on En
erg
y
a
nd Env
i
r
onme
n
t (Envir
o Ener
g
y
20
09
). Chan
dig
a
rh,
India. 20
09.
[5]
Cha
uha
n DS, Srivastava SK.
Non-C
onve
n
ti
ona
l Ener
g
y
R
e
sourc
e
s.
New
Age Publ
icati
o
n.
2005.
[6]
Rep
o
rt on East
ern Re
gio
n
Po
w
e
r Sector Pro
f
ile.
Ministry of Pow
e
r, Governme
nt of India
. 200
7.
[7]
Annu
al Re
port
of Central El
ec
tricit
y
Auth
orit
y.
Ministry of Pow
e
r, Government of India.
20
07-2
008.
[8] Annu
al
Re
port.
Ministry of Power.
Government of India.
20
05-0
6
.
[9]
Ross T
J
. F
u
zzy L
ogic
w
i
t
h
En
gin
eeri
ng Ap
pli
c
ations. Seco
n
d
Editio
n.
[10]
Sil AK, Deb N
K
, Maitra AK.
An Appro
a
ch f
o
r
Cho
ppi
ng O
ff Peak Load D
e
man
d
b
y
DLS
T
e
chniq
ue for
Regi
on
al L
oad.
1st Internation
a
l Co
nferenc
e ICAECT
.
Manipal Karn
ataka, Indi
a. 201
0.
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