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c
o
u
nt
ri
e
s
i
n
v
o
l
v
e
d
,
w
a
s
t
he
l
a
s
t
m
a
j
o
r
i
s
s
ue
.
T
h
e
f
i
r
s
t
r
o
u
nd
o
c
c
u
rre
d
d
u
ri
ng
t
h
e
u
nde
r
v
a
l
ue
d
o
f
t
h
e
T
ha
i
B
a
ht
,
t
he
M
a
l
a
y
s
i
a
n
R
i
ngg
i
t
,
t
h
e
P
hi
l
i
pp
i
ne
P
e
s
o
,
a
nd
t
h
e
I
ndo
ne
s
i
a
n
R
u
p
i
a
h.
H
o
w
e
v
e
r
,
a
f
t
e
r
t
h
e
c
u
rre
nc
i
e
s
r
e
-
s
t
a
b
i
l
i
z
e
,
t
h
e
s
e
c
o
n
d
r
o
u
nd
b
e
g
a
n
w
he
n
t
he
T
a
i
w
a
n
e
s
e
D
o
l
l
a
r,
S
o
u
t
h
K
o
re
a
n
W
o
n,
S
i
ng
a
po
r
e
D
o
l
l
a
r,
a
nd
H
o
n
g
K
o
ng
D
o
l
l
a
r
w
e
r
e
s
e
v
e
r
e
l
y
fo
r
c
e
d
do
w
n.
D
u
ri
ng
t
hi
s
pe
ri
o
d
,
t
h
e
M
a
l
a
y
s
i
a
n
go
v
e
rnm
e
nt
w
a
s
a
b
l
e
t
o
c
u
r
b
t
he
i
r
c
u
rre
n
c
y
by
t
a
k
i
ng
d
ra
s
t
i
c
i
ni
t
i
a
t
i
v
e
s
t
o
s
e
l
l
t
h
e
i
r
f
o
r
e
i
g
n
e
xc
ha
nge
re
s
e
r
v
e
s
a
nd
ra
i
s
e
t
h
e
i
nt
e
re
s
t
ra
t
e
s
.
T
hi
s
ha
s
s
l
o
w
e
r
do
w
n
t
h
e
e
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
g
r
o
w
t
h
a
nd
c
r
e
a
t
e
m
o
r
e
a
t
t
ra
c
t
i
v
e
s
e
c
u
ri
t
i
e
s
t
ha
n
e
qu
i
t
y
.
T
h
e
re
a
re
s
e
v
e
ra
l
m
o
de
l
s
b
e
i
ng
us
e
d
i
n
s
t
udy
i
ng
t
he
b
e
ha
v
i
o
r
o
f
f
i
n
a
nc
i
a
l
v
a
ri
a
t
i
o
n
i
nc
l
u
s
i
v
e
o
f
t
h
e
e
xc
ha
nge
ra
t
e
b
e
ha
v
i
o
r
s
[3
,
4]
.
F
o
r
e
x
a
m
p
l
e
,
m
o
de
l
l
i
ng
t
he
K
L
CI
s
t
o
c
k
m
a
rke
t
us
i
ng
t
w
o
m
o
de
l
s
;
S
t
o
c
ha
s
t
i
c
V
o
l
a
t
i
l
i
t
y
(S
V
)
a
nd
G
e
n
e
ra
l
i
z
e
d
A
ut
o
-
R
e
g
r
e
s
s
i
v
e
Co
n
d
i
t
i
o
na
l
H
e
t
e
r
o
s
c
e
d
a
s
t
i
c
i
t
y
(
G
A
R
CH
)
[5
]
.
E
a
rl
y
s
t
ud
y
o
n
t
h
e
e
xc
h
a
nge
ra
t
e
b
e
h
a
v
i
o
r
by
us
i
n
g
M
a
r
k
ov
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
w
a
s
c
o
n
duc
t
e
d
by
[6,
7]
.
T
h
e
y
pr
ov
e
d
t
h
a
t
t
h
e
M
a
r
ko
v
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
w
a
s
a
goo
d
e
s
t
i
m
a
t
i
o
n
m
o
de
l
f
o
r
t
h
e
l
i
m
i
t
e
d
da
t
a
a
n
d
t
h
e
y
us
e
d
qua
rt
e
rl
y
da
t
a
of
e
xc
h
a
n
ge
r
a
t
e
.
[8
]
r
a
n
a
s
t
ud
y
o
n
M
a
r
ko
v
S
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
t
o
de
s
c
r
i
b
e
t
h
e
b
e
h
a
v
i
o
r
o
f
e
i
gh
t
e
e
n
e
xc
ha
n
ge
r
a
t
e
s
a
n
d
t
h
e
r
e
s
ul
t
s
s
h
o
w
e
d
t
ha
t
t
h
e
M
a
r
ko
v
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
ng
m
o
de
l
w
a
s
a
s
uf
f
i
c
i
e
n
t
m
o
de
l
t
o
p
r
e
di
c
t
t
h
e
e
xc
ha
n
ge
ra
t
e
s
.
U
n
f
o
r
t
u
n
a
t
e
l
y
,
t
h
e
m
o
de
l
do
e
s
n
o
t
p
r
o
duc
e
t
h
e
b
e
s
t
p
r
e
di
c
t
i
o
n
f
o
r
a
ra
n
do
m
w
a
l
k.
O
n
t
h
e
o
t
h
e
r
h
a
nd,
[9]
c
o
n
duc
t
e
d
a
n
o
t
h
e
r
s
t
ud
y
t
o
ob
s
e
r
v
e
t
h
e
be
h
a
v
i
o
r
o
f
E
ur
o
pe
a
n
M
o
n
e
t
a
r
y
S
y
s
t
e
m
e
xc
h
a
nge
ra
t
e
s
,
a
l
s
o
by
e
m
pl
oy
i
n
g
t
h
e
M
a
r
ko
v
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
a
n
d
t
h
e
e
xc
h
a
nge
ra
t
e
w
a
s
vo
l
a
t
i
l
e
.
L
a
t
e
r,
[10
]
s
t
ud
i
e
d
t
h
e
d
a
i
l
y
e
x
c
h
a
n
ge
ra
t
e
o
f
t
hr
e
e
c
o
un
t
ri
e
s
a
ga
i
n
s
t
t
h
e
U
S
do
l
l
a
r
by
us
i
n
g
t
h
e
M
a
rko
v
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
.
T
h
e
s
t
udy
c
o
n
c
l
ude
d
t
ha
t
t
h
e
d
a
t
a
w
e
r
e
w
e
l
l
e
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
b
y
t
h
e
m
o
de
l
,
h
o
w
e
v
e
r
,
t
h
e
o
ut
o
f
s
a
m
pl
e
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
w
a
s
ve
r
y
p
oo
r
due
t
o
t
h
e
pa
r
a
m
e
t
e
r
i
n
c
o
n
s
t
a
n
c
y
.
In
a
dd
i
t
i
o
n
,
[
11
]
e
xa
m
i
n
e
d
t
h
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
of
t
h
e
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
r
e
gi
m
e
m
o
de
l
t
o
c
a
pt
ur
e
t
h
e
d
y
n
a
m
i
c
s
of
fo
r
e
i
g
n
e
xc
h
a
n
ge
ra
t
e
s
.
T
h
e
t
e
s
t
s
s
h
o
w
e
d
t
h
a
t
t
h
e
m
o
de
l
s
h
i
f
t
s
r
e
g
i
m
e
s
w
i
t
h
i
n
de
pe
n
de
n
t
s
h
i
f
t
s
i
n
m
e
a
n
a
n
d
v
a
r
i
a
n
c
e
s
h
o
w
i
n
g
a
go
o
d
f
i
t
a
n
d
a
c
c
ura
t
e
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
v
a
r
i
a
n
c
e
a
s
c
o
m
pa
r
e
d
t
o
o
t
h
e
r
m
o
de
l
s
,
e
v
e
n
t
h
o
ug
h
t
h
e
o
pt
i
o
n
p
r
i
c
e
di
d
n
o
t
de
m
o
n
s
t
ra
t
e
r
e
gi
m
e
c
ha
n
ge
[12
,
1
3]
p
r
o
v
e
d
t
h
a
t
t
h
e
2
-
s
t
a
t
e
M
a
r
ko
v
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
ng
A
R
(1)
m
o
de
l
o
ut
pe
r
fo
r
m
e
d
t
w
o
c
o
m
pe
t
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
s
w
h
e
r
e
t
h
e
r
e
a
l
e
xc
h
a
nge
ra
t
e
w
a
s
n
o
n
s
t
a
t
i
o
n
a
r
y
.
T
h
e
y
a
l
s
o
fo
un
d
o
ut
t
ha
t
t
h
e
e
xi
s
t
e
n
c
e
of
di
ffe
r
e
nt
r
e
gi
m
e
s
,
a
s
i
n
t
h
e
M
a
r
ko
v
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
ng
m
o
de
l
,
w
a
s
i
n
l
i
n
e
w
i
t
h
u
ni
t
r
o
o
t
s
i
n
re
a
l
e
xc
h
a
nge
r
a
t
e
s
.
T
hi
s
s
t
udy
w
a
s
s
uppo
r
t
e
d
by
[1
4
],
w
h
e
r
e
t
h
e
y
e
m
pl
oy
e
d
t
h
e
M
a
rko
v
s
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
t
o
c
a
pt
u
r
e
t
hr
e
e
r
e
gi
m
e
s
hi
f
t
s
i
n
t
h
e
M
a
l
a
y
s
i
a
n
e
xc
h
a
n
ge
r
a
t
e
s
a
ga
i
n
s
t
f
o
ur
c
o
un
t
r
i
e
s
,
f
r
o
m
t
h
e
y
e
a
r
1990
t
o
2005.
T
h
e
y
c
o
n
c
l
ude
d
t
ha
t
t
h
e
M
a
r
ko
v
S
h
i
f
t
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
s
uc
c
e
s
s
f
ul
l
y
c
a
pt
u
r
e
d
t
h
e
t
i
m
e
r
e
gi
m
e
i
n
f
o
ur
s
e
r
i
e
s
.
T
h
e
r
e
s
ul
t
s
w
e
r
e
a
l
s
o
s
uppo
r
t
e
d
b
y
[1
5
].
N
o
t
e
t
h
a
t
t
h
e
r
e
a
r
e
o
t
he
r
t
y
pe
s
o
f
M
a
rko
v
r
e
g
i
m
e
s
w
i
t
c
hi
ng
m
o
de
l
s
u
c
h
M
R
S
-
G
A
R
CH
-
N
,
M
R
S
-
G
A
R
CH
-
t
a
nd
M
R
S
-
G
A
R
CH
-
G
E
D
f
o
r
a
m
o
r
e
t
h
o
r
o
ug
h
c
o
m
p
a
ri
s
o
n
b
y
i
n
c
o
rpo
ra
t
i
ng
t
he
p
re
s
e
n
c
e
o
f
o
u
t
l
i
e
rs
i
n
t
h
e
m
o
de
l
s
[
16
,
1
7]
.
In
c
o
n
t
ra
s
t
,
[1
8
]
a
n
d
[1
9
]
i
n
t
r
o
duc
e
d
t
h
e
M
a
r
ko
v
Re
gi
m
e
S
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
A
R
CH
(M
R
S
A
R
C
H
)
m
o
d
e
l
t
h
a
t
c
o
m
b
i
n
e
s
t
h
e
M
a
rko
v
S
w
i
t
c
h
i
n
g
m
o
de
l
s
[
20
,
2
1]
w
i
t
h
t
h
e
A
R
CH
s
pe
c
i
f
i
c
a
t
i
o
n
.
T
h
e
M
R
S
A
R
C
H
m
o
de
l
i
s
de
s
i
g
n
e
d
t
o
c
a
p
t
u
r
e
r
e
gi
m
e
c
ha
n
ge
i
n
u
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
nt
y
w
i
t
h
un
o
b
s
e
r
v
e
s
t
a
t
e
v
a
ri
a
b
l
e
s
a
f
t
e
r
t
h
e
f
i
r
s
t
M
a
r
ko
v
Cha
i
n
o
r
de
r
p
r
o
c
e
s
s
.
P
a
ra
m
e
t
e
r
s
i
n
t
h
e
A
R
CH
pr
o
c
e
s
s
a
re
a
l
l
o
w
e
d
t
o
c
h
a
n
ge
w
i
t
h
r
e
s
pe
c
t
t
o
di
f
fe
r
e
n
t
c
o
un
t
r
i
e
s
.
A
R
CH
s
pe
c
i
f
i
c
a
t
i
o
n
s
w
e
r
e
us
e
d
t
o
d
e
a
l
w
i
t
h
i
n
f
i
n
i
t
e
pa
t
h
de
pe
n
de
n
c
i
e
s
.
[
2
2
]
de
v
e
l
o
p
e
d
n
e
w
f
un
c
t
i
o
n
o
f
G
A
R
C
H
,
f
G
A
R
C
H
(1,
1)
m
o
de
l
,
by
i
n
c
o
r
po
r
a
t
i
n
g
s
t
r
i
c
t
l
y
s
t
a
t
i
o
na
r
y
c
o
n
di
t
i
o
n
i
n
t
h
e
m
o
de
l
.
Cu
rr
e
nt
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[
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18
,
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pp.
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-
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,
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0.
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.
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ki
m
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v
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l
.
42
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3]
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.
3
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no
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pp
.
69
-
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,
2011
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3
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525
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[
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10]
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.
55
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96.
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11]
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12]
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13]
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14]
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15]
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18]
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.
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-
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.
[
19]
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.
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,
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.
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20]
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.
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o
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onom
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c
s
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v
o
l
.
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,
p
p.
307
-
333
,
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4.
[
21]
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.
D
.
,
H
a
m
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35
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-
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.
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22]
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.
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.
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24]
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25]
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.
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