TELKOM
NIKA
, Vol. 11, No. 5, May 2013, pp. 2535 ~
2544
ISSN: 2302-4
046
2535
Re
cei
v
ed
Jan
uary 8, 2013;
Re
vised Ma
rch 11, 2013; A
c
cepted Ma
rch 21, 2013
Main Player in Industrial Carbon Emissions in China
Liu Zhenling
Schoo
l of Man
agem
ent, Hen
an Un
iversit
y
o
f
T
e
chnolo
g
y
e-mail: li
uzh
enl
ing
185
8@
126.
com
A
b
st
r
a
ct
T
he car
bon
e
m
iss
i
ons
h
a
s
attracts great
concer
ns i
n
e
ngi
neer
in
g tec
hno
logy
rese
ar
ches. T
h
e
deco
m
positi
o
n
analysis tech
nol
ogy has b
e
en po
pul
ar in
the stu
d
y o
n
i
n
flue
ncin
g fact
ors of
in
dustri
a
l
carbo
n
e
m
issi
o
n
s (ICE). T
he chan
ge of in
dus
tries
’
s CO
2
emi
ssions fro
m
the
three main i
n
d
u
stries in C
h
in
a
over th
e p
e
ri
o
d
1
980-
20
11
b
a
sed
on
the
lo
garith
m
ic
me
a
n
d
i
visi
a i
n
d
e
x
(LMDI)
metho
d
has
be
en
carr
ied
out. T
he resea
r
ch indic
a
ted t
hat econ
o
m
ic
activity effe
ct
w
a
s the main i
n
flue
nce factor
for ICE increase in
Chin
a ov
er the
entire p
e
ri
od;
the dec
lin
e in
ener
gy in
te
nsit
y and th
e ad
ju
stment of e
ner
gy an
d cha
n
g
e
in
the CO
2
emiss
i
on co
efficie
n
t w
e
re ma
jor d
e
t
ermi
na
nts
for reducti
on of I
C
E. Meanw
hi
l
e
, w
e
found t
hat
Chin
a h
ad
ma
de a s
i
g
n
ifica
n
t
contributi
on t
o
red
u
cin
g
g
l
o
bal
CO
2
emiss
i
ons
by d
e
cre
a
sin
g
its e
ner
gy
intens
ity. Base
d on the for
e
s
t
udy, the mech
anis
m
of CO
2
emissio
n
ch
an
ges h
a
s be
en
ana
ly
z
e
d
an
d the
pressur
e
-driv
e
n envir
on
me
nt protectio
n
mod
e
l has b
e
e
n
pu
t forw
ard.
Ke
y
w
ords
: Industrial CO
2
emi
ssions, Dec
o
mpositi
on, Co
mp
uting,
structural effec
t, efficiency effect
Copy
right
©
2013 Un
ive
r
sita
s Ah
mad
Dah
l
an
. All rig
h
t
s r
ese
rved
.
1. Introduc
tion
The in
crea
sin
g
thre
at of gl
obal
wa
rming
and
climate
cha
nge
ha
s b
een the
majo
r, wo
rld
-
wide, o
n
-g
oi
ng con
c
ern i
n
the la
st two de
ca
d
e
s. Among
st
sev
e
ral enviro
n
m
ental
p
o
llutants
cau
s
in
g clim
ate ch
ang
e, carbon
dioxid
e (CO
2
) i
s
h
e
l
d re
spo
n
si
bl
e for 5
8
.8% of the GHG,
in a
repo
rt of the Wo
rld Ban
k
(2007
a). Environment pol
l
u
tion from fossi
l
fuel combu
s
tion is dama
g
i
ng
human h
ealth
, air and wat
e
r quality, agricultu
re, and
ultimately th
e econ
omy. Many of Chin
ese
cities a
r
e am
ong the most
polluted in the wo
rld.
Th
e increa
se of green
hou
se
gases (GHG) is
mainly due to the gro
w
in
g emission
s
of CO
2
whi
c
h
represents 8
0
% of
the total emission
s
of
GHG. Chi
na is
the wo
rld’
s
se
con
d
-l
arg
e
st sou
r
ce
of
CO
2
emi
ssio
n
s
behin
d
th
e Unite
d
Stat
es,
the CO
2
e
m
ission
s fro
m
fu
el com
b
u
s
tio
n
ha
s in
cre
a
sed from
145
4
.
65 Mton
s in
1980 to
770
6
.
83
Mtons i
n
2
0
1
1
, an
ann
ual
increa
se
of
8.02%.
Many
scienti
s
ts
an
d environm
e
n
tal group
s
a
r
e
attempting to
identify target
s for
CO
2
re
d
u
ction
s
so a
s
to supply the
base i
n
form
a
t
ion for ma
king
the internatio
nal poli
c
ie
s to address gl
obal clim
at
e cha
nge. It is necessa
ry for China’
s en
ergy
and environ
mental poli
c
y
ma
kers
to know
fully
cha
nge
s a
n
d
the
drivin
g fo
rce
s
g
o
verning
CO
2
emission leve
ls and thei
r e
v
olution.
The pu
rpo
s
e
of this study is to decompo
se the facto
r
s that give rise to CO
2
emi
ssi
on
s.
Chin
ese eco
nomy is divided into thre
e aggregate
d
secto
r
s, na
mely agriculture, indu
stry
and
servi
c
e
s
, an
d
ene
rgy sou
r
ce
s u
s
ed
by
these
secto
r
s a
r
e a
g
g
r
eg
ated into fo
u
r
g
r
oup
s:
solid
fuels, petrol
e
um, natural g
a
s an
d ele
c
tri
c
ity. From
rel
a
ted studi
es
we can
de
du
ce that the ou
tput
effec
t
is
the
mos
t
important fac
t
or that
affec
t
s
CO
2
e
m
issi
on red
u
ction
s
.
This p
aper will conti
nue
to provide
a
deep
er u
nde
rstandi
ng of t
he drivin
g force
s
be
hind th
e evolution
of energy-relat
ed
CO
2
emi
ssio
n
s bet
wee
n
1980 a
nd 20
11. A newly
prop
osed factor decomp
o
s
ition metho
d
is
use
d
to q
uan
tify the relati
ve co
ntributio
ns
of
sel
e
cte
d
drivin
g forces to th
e variations i
n
CO
2
emission
s, t
here
b
y providing the
rel
e
vant aut
ho
rities with
m
o
re
advan
ce
d and
con
c
rete
referen
c
e ma
terial in re
gard to policie
s to redu
ce
CO
2
emission
s.
The pap
er i
s
orga
nized a
s
follows: Section
2 briefly reviews the literatu
r
e an
d condu
cts
an expl
orato
r
y analysi
s
of
the data;
Section 3
pr
esen
ts the
de
com
positio
n m
e
th
od u
s
e
d
in
th
is
analysi
s
, while Section
4
pre
s
ent
s the
analysi
s
resu
lts; Section 5
analyses th
e
mech
ani
sm
of
CO
2
emi
s
sio
n
s
and
provides the p
o
licy implicatio
ns
of the e
m
piri
cal
analysi
s
.
Con
c
lu
sion
s
are
repo
rted in
se
ction 6.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
ISSN: 23
02-4
046
TELKOM
NIKA
Vol. 11, No
. 5, May 2013 : 2535 – 254
4
2536
2.
Literature Rev
i
e
w
and Explorato
r
y
Analy
s
is
With the adv
antage
s of sound the
o
retical fou
ndatio
n, high de
gre
e
of adapta
b
i
lity, ease
of
use,
a
nd e
a
se
of und
erstandi
ng and
result
p
r
e
s
ent
ation [1], the
appli
c
ation
of
de
com
p
o
s
ition
analysi
s
h
a
s increa
sed
since th
e late
1970
s, an
d
has bee
n e
s
pe
cially
wid
e
ly applie
d for
investigatin
g mech
ani
sm
s
influen
cing e
nergy
con
s
u
m
ption an
d its environm
e
n
tal sid
e
effects.
Sun [2] analy
z
ed
ch
ang
es
of CO
2
emi
ssion inten
s
ity in the devel
o
ped
cou
n
trie
s for 19
80-199
4
based on a
complete d
e
co
mpositio
n mo
del, and fou
n
d
that the em
issi
on inten
s
it
ies de
crea
sed
by 33.26% during thi
s
period, a decrea
s
e in ene
rgy
intensity accounts for a
b
out 70% of the
total.
Sun
[3]
used
a
com
p
lete d
e
comp
osition
mod
e
l
to an
alysi
s
e
nergy
co
nsu
m
ption a
nd
CO
2
emission
s
of the OE
CD from
196
0 to
199
5. S
ubh
es [5]
analy
z
ed the
chan
ges in in
du
strial
energy inten
s
ities an
d CO
2
intensitie
s from use of energy
in Thailand du
ring
1981-200
0, and
then identifie
d the factors affect
ing the two inten
s
ities using the LM
DI techni
que.
Lee and Oh [
6
]
decompo
se
d the cha
nge
s
of CO
2
emissions in APEC countri
es
based on the LMDI approach,
and fou
nd th
at the gro
w
th
in per
ca
pita
GDP an
d po
pulation a
r
e t
he two
domin
ant co
ntributo
r
s
to the in
cre
a
s
e in
CO
2
e
m
issi
on
s. Wi
etze [7] a
nal
yzed the
ch
ange
s of
CO
2
emissio
n
s by
unde
rtaki
ng a
com
p
lete decompo
sitio
n
analysi
s
fo
r Turkey ove
r
the pe
riod
1980
-20
03, a
n
d
con
c
lu
ded th
at the bigge
st contributo
r
to the rise in
CO
2
emissi
ons i
s
the e
x
pansi
on of th
e
eco
nomy. Di
ako
u
la
ki and
Manda
ra
ka [
8
] explained t
he ch
ang
es i
n
indu
strial
CO
2
emission
s in
14EU
cou
n
tri
e
s fo
r the p
e
r
iod 1
990
-2
0
03 ba
se
d on
the refin
ed
Laspeyre
s m
odel. Usin
g the
LMDI
app
ro
ach, S
ubh
es [9] an
alyse
d
the
re
du
ction in
g
r
ee
n
hou
se
ga
s
emission
s in
15
cou
n
trie
s of
the Eu
rop
ean
Unio
n b
e
twe
e
n
19
90
and
2
007 to
find
ou
t the
contri
but
ion of
differe
nt
cou
n
t
r
ie
s.
Re
cently so
me effort h
a
s been
pai
d to
t
he facto
r
s for e
nergy-sa
v
ing and
envi
r
onm
ent
quality in Chi
na. Wan
g
et al. [
10] analyzed the chan
ge of aggreg
ated CO
2
em
issi
on
s in Chi
n
a
based o
n
the
LMDI meth
o
d
and
co
ncl
u
ded that the
total theo
retical de
cre
a
se o
f
CO
2
emi
ssi
ons
wa
s 246
6 Mt durin
g 195
7-2000. Wu et al. [11] in
vestigated the ev
olution of ene
rgy-related
CO
2
emission
s from 1
985
-19
99 in
China
and
u
nde
rl
ying d
r
iving
force
s
ba
se
d
on
time-se
r
ies
decompo
sitio
n
of the LMDI approa
ch.
Wu et
al. [12] use
d
the
LMDI meth
od to study CO
2
emission
s f
r
o
m
198
0 to
20
02, an
d
con
c
l
uded
that
e
c
o
nomic scal
e,
fuel mix an
d
energy inten
s
ity
on the e
nerg
y
-dema
nd
si
de mainly d
r
ove the cha
nge
s in
Chin
a’s
CO
2
emi
ssi
on
s, and t
h
e
stru
cture a
n
d
efficien
cy
chang
es
on
the e
nergy-su
pply si
de
pla
y
ed only
a
minor rol
e
b
e
fore
1996. Mo
re,
over the pe
ri
od 199
6-2
0
0
0
, the accele
ration of effici
ency imp
r
ove
m
ent in end
-use
and tran
sformation
se
ctor
s a
c
count
s fo
r the d
e
cli
ne i
n
Chi
na’
s CO
2
emission
s t
hat we
re
rel
a
ted
to the total prima
r
y ene
rgy supply. Li
u et al
. [13] analyzed the
chan
ge of i
ndu
strial
carbon
emission
s fro
m
36 ind
u
st
rial
se
ctors
b
a
se
d on th
e
LMDI a
ppr
o
a
ch, a
nd
co
nclu
ded th
at th
e
indu
strial a
c
tivity and energy intensity were t
he ove
r
wh
elmin
g
co
ntributo
r
s to
the cha
nge
of
Chin
a’s in
du
strial se
ctors’
carbon
emissions in
th
e p
e
riod
199
8-2
005. Fan et a
l
. [14] employed
the input-out
put app
roa
c
h
to co
mput
e
energy req
u
irem
ent and
CO
2
emi
ssi
ons u
nde
r e
a
ch
scena
rio i
n
China, a
nd
sh
o
w
ed
that
Chi
na’s
en
ergy n
eed
s
a
nd rel
a
ted CO
2
emi
ssi
ons will
grow
expone
ntially even with
m
any ene
rgy e
fficiency
imp
r
ovements.
G
uan et al. [1
5] asse
ssed
the
driving force
s
of Chi
na’
s CO
2
emission
s from
1980 to 2
0
30 by com
b
ining
stru
ct
ural
decompo
sitio
n
and in
put-o
utput analy
s
i
s
, and
con
c
lu
ded that p
r
od
uction
-related
CO
2
emi
ssi
o
n
s
will in
crea
se
three
times b
y
2030.
Ho
u
s
eh
old
co
nsu
m
ption,
capit
a
l inve
stment
and
g
r
o
w
th
in
exports
will l
a
rgely drive the increase i
n
CO
2
emi
s
sions, relying
on efficien
cy
improvem
en
ts
alone
will n
o
t stabilize
Chin
a’s futu
re emissio
n
s.
Zhang et
al. [16] use
d
the com
p
l
e
te
decompo
sitio
n
meth
od to
a
nalyze
the
na
ture
of t
he fa
ctors that influ
ence the
cha
nge
s in
en
erg
y
-
related
C
O
2
emission
s an
d
CO
2
emi
ssi
on inten
s
ity d
u
ring
the p
e
ri
od 19
91
-200
6, and fin
d
th
at
energy intensity effect is confirme
d as t
he domin
ant contri
buto
r
to the declin
e in CO
2
emi
ssi
on
s
and CO
2
emi
ssi
on inten
s
it
y. Zhang et al. [17] used
the compl
e
te decomp
o
sit
i
on tech
niqu
e
to
identify the factors i
n
fluen
cing th
e
se
ctoral
ch
ange
s in CO
2
emi
s
sion
s in
Chin
a for the
pe
ri
od
1991
-20
06, a
nd con
c
lud
e
d
that economi
c
a
c
tivity has
the large
s
t po
sitive effect in
CO
2
emiss
i
on
cha
nge
s i
n
al
l majo
r e
c
o
n
o
m
ic
se
ct
or
s
a
nd
Chin
a h
a
s achieved
a
consi
derable
d
e
crea
se i
n
CO
2
emission
s ma
inly due to the improve
d
e
nergy inten
s
it
y.
However,
with res
p
ec
t to the total CO
2
emission
s in
Chin
a, those
studie
s
d
o
n
o
t take
the impo
rtan
ce of
se
ctora
l
dimen
s
ion i
n
to acco
un
t. This
paper at
tempts
to identify the fac
t
ors
influen
cing
th
e chan
ge
of i
ndu
strial
CO
2
emi
ssio
n
s from the
thre
e
main in
du
stri
es
ba
sed
on
the
LMDI metho
d
, determin
e
s
the co
ntrib
u
tion of
the factors which influen
ce ene
rgy-related
CO
2
,
and th
en a
n
a
l
ysis th
e me
chani
sm of
CO
2
emi
ssi
on
s in China.
To
better i
n
vest
igate
chan
gin
g
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TELKOM
NIKA
ISSN:
2302-4
046
Main Player i
n
Indust
r
ial Carbo
n
Em
issi
ons in
Chin
a (Liu Zh
enling
)
2537
trend
s of the factor’
relative
contrib
u
tion
with time
, the time period o
f
statistical da
ta from 1980
to
2011
used in
this p
ape
r is divided into
three
equ
al time interval
s
(su
b
-peri
o
d
s
), namely 19
8
0
-
1992, 199
2-2
000, and 20
0
0
-20
11. The
variation
s
are
attributed to the factors of overall activi
ty
(activity effect), activity mix (stru
c
ture eff
e
ct),
se
cto
r
al
energy inten
s
ity (int
en
sity effect),
se
ctoral
energy mix (energy
-mix effect) an
d CO
2
emission fa
ctor (emi
ssion
-
f
a
ctor effe
ct).
3. The Metho
dolog
y
and Models
3.1. Estimation of CO
2
E
m
issions
The followi
ng
method is g
i
ven by IPCC [18]; total
CO
2
emi
ssio
n
s in t
he
i
t
h
se
ct
or is
estimated ba
sed ene
rgy con
s
um
ption,
carbon em
i
ssi
on fa
ctors and the fra
c
tion of oxidi
z
ed
carbon by fue
l
as follows.
(1
)
tt
t
t
ii
j
i
j
j
j
j
jj
CC
E
E
F
C
S
O
M
(1)
whe
r
e
t
i
C
is
the total CO
2
emissi
on
s of the
i
th se
ctor in year
t
,
t
ij
C
is
the total CO
2
emission
s of the
i
th secto
r
ba
sed
on fu
el type
j
in y
ear
t
,
t
ij
E
is the to
tal ene
rgy
co
nsum
ption
of
the
i
th secto
r
base
d
on fuel type
j
in year
t
,
EF
j
is the ca
rbo
n
e
m
issi
on
s fact
or of the
j
th fuel
(
t
C/TJ
),
t
j
CS
is th
e fractio
n
of the
j
th fuel is not oxidized
as ra
w mat
e
rial
s in year
t
,
O
j
is the
fraction
of
carbo
n
oxidi
z
ed b
a
sed
on
fuel type
j
,
M
is the m
o
l
e
cul
a
r
wei
ght
ratio
of
carbon
dioxide to carbon (44/12
). In th
is stu
d
y, the emi
ssi
on factors
EF
j
a
r
e assum
ed to be 25.8, 21
.1
and 1
5
.3
t
C/
TJ of en
ergy use
d
for
coa
l
, oil and nat
ural
g
a
s,
re
spectively, an
d the fra
c
tion
s of
carbon oxidi
z
ed
O
j
are
taken as 0.9
0
, 0.98 and 0.99
for co
al,
oil and natural ga
s, re
spe
c
tively,
based on the
IPCC.
3.2. Decomp
osition of
CO
2
Emissions
Ang et al. [19
], Ang and Li
u [20], and A
ng [1] arg
ued
that the loga
rithmic m
ean
Divisia
index (L
MDI)
method
sho
u
l
d
be p
r
eferre
d to ot
her
de
comp
ositio
n
method
s with
the advanta
ges
of path in
dep
ende
ncy, abil
i
ty to handle
zero valu
es
a
nd con
s
iste
n
c
y in a
ggreg
ation. The
r
ef
ore,
we have a
d
o
p
ted this met
hod to analy
s
is CO
2
emi
s
si
ons.
Cha
nge
s in
CO
2
emission
s of the eco
n
o
m
y can b
e
de
comp
osed int
o
cha
nge
s in
overall
ec
onomic
activity
(ac
t
ivity
effec
t
), ac
tivity mi
x (structure effect
), secto
r
al e
nergy inten
s
i
t
y
(inten
sity effect), se
ctoral ener
gy mix (energy-mix e
ffect) and
CO
2
emission
factor (emi
ssi
on-
factor effe
ct). Ang (20
05) d
e
com
p
o
s
e
s
CO
2
emission
s
as follo
ws:
ij
ij
i
ij
i
ij
ij
i
ij
i
i
ij
i
ij
ij
U
F
I
S
G
E
C
E
E
G
E
G
G
G
C
C
(2)
whe
r
e
C
is
the total CO
2
e
m
issi
on
s an
d
ij
C
is the CO
2
emission
s a
r
i
s
ing from en
ergy
sou
r
c
e
j
in se
ct
or
i
;
G
is
the total ec
onomic
ac
tivity le
vel;
G
G
S
i
i
/
is the economi
c
struct
ure
sha
r
e of the
i
t
h
sect
o
r
,
i
i
i
Q
E
I
/
is
the ene
rgy in
tensity of se
ctor
i
;
j
ij
i
E
E
, where
ij
E
is
the con
s
u
m
p
t
ion of energ
y
source
j
in
sect
o
r
i
;
i
ij
ij
E
E
F
/
is the ene
rgy-mi
x variable; a
nd
ij
ij
ij
E
C
U
/
is ca
rbon e
m
issi
on
s co
efficient in secto
r
i
of energy source
j
.
Let
C
o
and
C
t
be total CO
2
emission
s
i
n
year
0
a
nd ye
ar
t
. T
he
ch
a
nge i
n
CO
2
e
m
issi
on
s
betwe
en th
e two ye
ars, the
n
△
C
=
C
t
－
C
t-1
,
△
C
ca
n be
decompo
se
d
to five effects as follows: th
e
cha
nge in th
e GDP de
not
ed by
△
C
act
, the cha
nge i
n
the eco
n
o
m
ic structu
r
e
effect denot
ed by
△
C
str
, the
ch
ange
in the
sectoral e
n
e
r
g
y
intensity eff
e
ct d
enote
d
by
△
C
int
, the
ch
ang
e in th
e
se
ctoral
en
ergy-mix effect
denote
d
by
△
C
mi
x
, and the chan
ge i
n
the CO
2
emi
ssi
on
coeffici
ent
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4
2538
effect denote
d
by
△
C
em
f
, which refle
c
ts the
contribution of ch
ange in the
CO
2
e
m
iss
i
on
coeffici
ent to cha
nge in
CO
2
emissi
on
s,
resp
ect
i
v
e
ly
.
emf
mix
str
act
C
C
C
C
C
C
int
(3)
)
/
(
)
,
(
1
1
t
t
i
t
i
t
i
act
G
G
Ln
C
C
L
C
(4)
)
/
(
)
,
(
1
1
t
i
t
i
i
t
i
t
i
str
S
S
Ln
C
C
L
C
(5)
)
/
(
)
,
(
1
1
int
t
i
t
i
i
t
i
t
i
I
I
Ln
C
C
L
C
(6)
)
/
(
)
,
(
1
1
t
ij
t
ij
i
t
i
t
i
mix
F
F
Ln
C
C
L
C
(7)
)
/
(
)
,
(
1
1
t
ij
t
ij
i
t
i
t
i
emf
U
U
Ln
C
C
L
C
(8)
whe
r
e
11
1
(,
)
(
)
/
(
/
)
tt
t
t
t
t
ii
i
i
i
i
LC
C
C
C
L
n
C
C
Bec
a
us
e
△
C
act
is the main effects resulting in CO
2
emission
s an
d can b
e
reg
a
rde
d
as
the theoretical ch
ang
e of
CO
2
e
m
issio
n
s
cau
s
e
d
b
y
econ
omic
activities [4]. No
w, we
gi
ve a
definition on t
he theoretical
decrea
s
e a
s
△
C
*
as
follow.
)
(
int
*
emf
mix
str
act
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
(9)
w
h
er
e
△
is
t
he differenc
e in the time interval [0,
t
]. The
rate
of t
heoretical
de
cre
a
se
of
CO
2
emi
ssi
on
s (
R
t
) in the
t
th year is
%
100
0
*
act
t
C
C
C
R
(10
)
4. Analy
s
is o
f
The Results
4.1. The Da
ta
The data
use
d
in the
study
whi
c
h
span
s from 19
80 to
2011
we
re
collecte
d
from
variou
s
years of Chin
a’s Statisti
cal
Yearb
o
o
k
pu
blish
ed
by
China’
s Nation
al Bure
au of
Statistics
(NB
S
).
The G
D
P dat
a and e
n
e
r
gy
data are in 1
0
8
Yuan in
co
nstant 1
978 p
r
ice
and i
n
ten thou
sand to
ns
of coal
equiv
a
lent (10
4
tce) in
calorific
value calculation, respecti
vely. CO
2
em
issi
on
s f
o
r
ea
ch
fuel type com
e
from the US Energy
Informatio
n Administration [30], and CO
2
emission
s for the
three ind
u
st
ri
es are cal
c
ul
ated by usin
g
the am
ount o
f
each fuel co
nsum
ed in ea
ch secto
r
.
The wh
ole e
c
on
omy of China is divide
d into
three i
ndu
strie
s
: the primary, se
conda
ry,
and te
rtiary i
ndu
strie
s
. Th
e pri
m
ary i
n
d
u
stry in
clu
d
e
s
o
ne
se
ctor——“F
a
rmi
n
g
,
Fore
stry, An
imal
Hu
sba
ndry,
Fishe
r
y and
Wate
r Co
nse
r
vancy
”
(FFA
FW). Th
e se
con
dary in
du
stry is
cla
ssif
i
ed
into two se
ctors: “In
dust
r
y” and “Con
struction
”
.
The “indu
stry” se
ct
or is equival
e
nt to “Mining”,
“Man
ufactu
rin
g
”, and “Ele
ctric Power, G
a
s an
d Wa
te
r” (EG
W
). Te
rtiary indu
stry
includ
es three
se
ctors-“T
ran
s
po
rtation, St
orag
e, Post
a
nd Tel
e
comm
unication Se
rvices” (TSPT
S), “Whole
s
al
e
,
Retail Trade
and Caterin
g
Service
s
” (WRTCS
),
an
d “Resi
denti
a
l Con
s
u
m
pti
on and
Othe
rs”
(Ho
u
sehol
ds).
This
study co
nsid
ers mainl
y
four types
of
energy, includi
ng p
r
ima
r
y ene
rgy, se
con
dary
energy, ele
c
tricity, and
he
at. The p
r
ima
r
y ene
rgy is
comp
osed of
coal, oil,
nat
ural ga
s,
hyd
r
o,
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TELKOM
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ISSN:
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046
Main Player i
n
Indust
r
ial Carbo
n
Em
issi
ons in
Chin
a (Liu Zh
enling
)
2539
and
nu
clea
r
energy. Seco
ndary
ene
rgy
incl
ude
s
co
ke
,
co
ke
ove
n
ga
s,
ga
soli
ne, kerosene
,
diesel oil, fuel oil, liquefied petrole
um ga
s (LPG
), refin
e
ry gas, an
d other pet
role
um pro
d
u
c
ts.
Due to data limitations, total con
s
um
ption
inclu
de fin
a
l energy con
s
umptio
n and
losse
s
in ele
c
tri
c
ity
gene
ration,
el
ectri
c
ity is co
nverted
to
co
al eq
uivalent
based
on th
e
qua
ntity of coal
need
ed to produ
ce the el
ectri
c
ity at the averag
e
co
al input per
kilowatt hou
r fro thermal po
wer
gene
ration in
the relevant year, inste
ad o
f
t
he calorific
value of the electri
c
ity itself.
4.2. Results and Disc
uss
i
on
Acco
rdi
ng to
the e
c
on
omic develo
p
ment
of Ch
ina,
Th
e calculated
result
s a
r
e
ten
t
atively
pre
s
ente
d
over thre
e peri
o
ds, from 19
80
to 1992, fro
m
1993 to 20
00 and fro
m
2001 to 20
11.
In this
se
ction
,
we a
pply th
e propo
se
d m
odel
s to expl
ore th
e
contri
bution
s
of the
variou
s
effects to th
e chan
ge
s i
n
China’
s
e
nergy
con
s
u
m
ption. Ta
bl
e 1
and
Fig
u
re
2
sh
ow the
decompo
sitio
n
re
sults. It
indicates th
at dur
in
g 19
80-2
011,
Chi
na expe
rien
ced spe
c
tacul
a
r
eco
nomi
c
g
r
o
w
th, the i
n
crease of
CO
2
emission
s ca
use
d
by eco
nomic
a
c
tivities wa
s 990
8
.
19
Mtons, a
c
cou
n
ts for +194.
52% of CO
2
e
m
issi
on chan
ges ove
r
the entire pe
rio
d
of 1980-201
1
.
The cent
ral govern
m
ent’
s
develo
p
men
t
policy and
investment p
r
ioritie
s
we
re
bia
s
ed
towards rapid
indu
striali
z
ati
on b
e
fore
20
00,
which in
crea
sed
not
o
n
ly the e
nerg
y
con
s
u
m
ptio
n of
the whol
e economy, but a
l
so CO
2
emission
s, duri
n
g
the sub
-
pe
ri
od of 1980
-1
992 an
d 199
2-
2000,
th
e structural shifts
increa
se
d CO
2
emi
ssi
on
s 118.3
3
a
nd
116.48
Mton
s, a
c
count
s f
o
r
15.36% and
14.35% of CO
2
emission
chang
es, re
sp
ectively.
The en
ergy intensity effect plays an
im
portant
role i
n
mitigation o
f
CO
2
emi
ssi
ons. O
u
r
results al
so
sho
w
that techn
o
logi
cal chang
e plays the domina
n
t role in d
e
crea
sing
CO
2
emission
s,
whi
c
h i
s
co
nsi
s
tent with
the co
n
c
lu
sion
s of
pre
v
ious e
m
piri
cal
studie
s
.
The
improvem
ent
of ene
rgy
efficien
cy de
creased
CO
2
e
m
issi
on
s by
4351.8
5
Mto
n
s, a
c
cou
n
ts for
85.43% of
CO
2
emi
ssio
n
de
cre
a
se o
v
er the
entire of
19
80
-20
11. Due to i
m
provem
ents in
energy effici
ency, the a
c
cumul
a
ti
ve theoretical
de
cre
a
se of CO
2
emission
s durin
g the
sub
-
perio
d of 198
0-19
92, 199
2
-
200
0 and 20
00-2
011 am
o
unted to 104
3.85 Mtons,
1063.1
7
Mtons
and 1
195.0
2
Mtons,
re
spe
c
tively, and t
he theo
re
ti
cal
decre
ase rate wa
s
26.36
%, 23.09% a
nd
10.36%, resp
ectively. Fro
m
Fig.1, it
sh
ows that
e
n
e
r
gy inte
nsity
of the i
ndu
stry is th
e hi
gh
est
intensity
se
ctor
and
its en
ergy i
n
ten
s
ity is im
p
r
oved
throug
hout
th
e stu
d
y p
e
rio
d
. At the
sa
me
time, ene
rgy i
n
tensity of
pri
m
ary i
s
d
e
cre
a
se
d g
r
ad
uall
y
durin
g the
p
e
riod.
Thi
s
ca
n be
attribute
d
to the enco
u
rage of efficie
n
t energy
poli
c
ie
s towa
rd
s su
staina
bility.
As a re
sult
of energy mix adjustme
n
t in
indu
stry and mo
stly contri
buted
b
y
clean
electri
c
ity,
th
e
con
s
umpti
on sha
r
e of electri
c
ity increased while in
the same timeframe
the
electri
c
ity wa
s mainly gen
erated from coal-b
urning therm
a
l powe
r
, which ha
s a highe
r ca
rb
on
emission
co
efficient valu
e than any other type
o
f
fossil fuel. So the decrea
s
e of carbon
emission
s
re
sulting f
r
om
energy mix a
nd the
CO
2
emission
coe
fficient is
39
7.49 Mton
s
and
268.55 Mton
s during 1
980
-2011, re
sp
ect
i
vely.
Table 1. De
compo
s
ition of
the chan
ge
s in CO
2
emi
ssi
ons in
Chin
a:1980
-20
1
1
(million tons)
Index
Decomposition of changes in CO
2
emissions
Real
change
Theoretical
decrease
△
C*
Rate of
theoretical
decrease (%
)
△
C
em
f
△
C
in
t
△
C
st
r
△
C
mi
x
△
C
ac
t
1980-
1992
-136.05
-914.94
118.33
-111.19
1814.08
770.22.
-1043.85
26.36
-17.66
-118.79
15.369
-14.439
235.53
100
-135.53
%
1992-
2000
65.09
-1149.82
116.48
-94.91
1874.74
811.57
-1063.17
23.09
8.02 -141.68
14.35
-11.69
231.01
100
-131.0
%
2000-
2011
165.96
-1054.56
-155.43
-150.99
4605.37
3410.34
-1195.02
10.36
4.86 -30.92
-4.56
-4.43
135.04
100
-35.04
%
1980-
2011
-268.55
-4351.85
203.45
-397.49
9908.19
5093.74
-4814.45
29.77
-5.27
-85.43
3.99
-7.80
194.52
100
-94.51
%
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. 5, May 2013 : 2535 – 254
4
2540
0
4
8
12
16
20
1
98
0
1
98
2
19
8
4
19
8
6
19
8
8
1
99
0
1
99
2
1
99
4
19
9
6
19
9
8
20
0
0
2
00
2
2
00
4
20
0
6
20
0
8
Year
ton
s/1
000
0 y
uan
Primary
Second
ary
Ter
tiary
T
otal
Figure 1. Indu
strial en
ergy intensit
ie
s and total ene
rgy intensity in China (198
0-2011
)
-800000
-400000
0
400000
800000
1200000
Cemf
Cint
Cstr
Cmix
Cact
Ctot
Figure 2.The
influen
cing fa
ctors for ICE
cha
nge
s bet
wee
n
198
0 a
nd 201
1 in China
As sho
w
n in
Figure 3, be
cau
s
e the in
dustri
a
l struct
ural shift or the ene
rgy efficien
cy
improvem
ent
in
sub
-
secto
r
s
or both
a
c
cele
rated
after the
mid
-
19
90, the
real
CO
2
emiss
i
on
s
in
Chin
a increa
sed slo
w
ly fro
m
1997 to 20
00.
5. Polic
y
Imp
lications
From th
e pa
p
e
r, we find th
at eco
nomi
c
activity
effect is the m
o
st i
m
porta
nt co
ntributo
r
to
increa
sed CO
2
emission
s in all the sub-p
e
ri
od
s a
s
we
ll as i
n
the entire
pe
riod; the e
n
e
r
gy
intensity effe
ct is
confirm
ed a
s
the d
o
minant
cont
ributo
r
to th
e de
cline in
CO
2
emi
ssi
ons.
No
wad
a
ys, China’
s econo
my is in a sta
ge of ene
rgy
transitio
n: fro
m
low efficie
n
c
y solid fu
els
to
oil, gas a
nd
electri
c
p
o
we
r, from ag
riculture
to u
r
b
anization an
d
indust
r
iali
zat
i
on, from he
avy
indu
stry to lighter a
nd hi
gh tech
nolo
g
y
industry,
from low m
o
to
rizatio
n
to ra
pid growth of
the
motor ve
hicle
pop
ulation.
Con
s
id
erin
g t
he e
ner
gy de
pletion a
nd
e
n
vironm
ent d
a
mage
b
r
oug
ht
about by
the over-heate
d
eco
nomy,
it i
s
b
e
st to
ke
e
p
a m
ode
st e
c
on
omic dev
elopme
n
t in
o
r
de
r
to save ene
rg
y and prote
c
t environ
ment.
We
will
dee
p
l
y analysi
s
th
e me
cha
n
ism
of environm
ent a
c
cordi
n
g to the
situ
ation of
Chin
a. Environment quality
’
s scale in
d
e
x
es are the
decrea
s
e am
ount of CO
2
, SO
2
, s
o
lid offal
and et
c. In the mid i
ndu
strializatio
n in
Chin
a, m
any
co
rpo
r
ation
s
are i
ndiffere
nt to the ide
a
of
environ
ment
prote
c
tion. T
he drive
r
of environ
ment
prote
c
tion co
me
s from
stress of the ce
ntra
l
and dist
rict g
o
vernm
ents,
inclu
d
ing co
mpulsory
poli
c
y and incen
t
ive policy. The com
pul
so
r
y
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TELKOM
NIKA
ISSN:
2302-4
046
Main Player i
n
Indust
r
ial Carbo
n
Em
issi
ons in
Chin
a (Liu Zh
enling
)
2541
policy
provid
es im
petu
s
by admini
s
tration a
nd l
a
w me
an
s to
reg
u
late th
e contamin
ation
stand
ard. T
h
e incentive p
o
licy en
cou
r
a
ges
enviro
n
m
ent prote
c
tion
by econ
omi
c
mean
s such
as
colle
cting e
n
vironm
ent tax and contami
n
ation emi
ssi
o
n
fee. In addition, publi
c
izi
n
g enviro
n
men
t
-
prote
c
ting kn
owle
dge p
r
o
m
otes
so
cial willingn
ess fo
r enviro
n
ment
protectio
n
as well.
-40
0000
-20
0000
0
20
0000
40
0000
60
0000
80
0000
1
9
80
19
8
2
19
8
4
19
8
6
19
8
8
19
9
0
19
9
2
1
9
94
1
99
6
1
99
8
20
0
0
20
0
2
2
0
04
20
0
6
20
0
8
Y
ear
I
ncr
ea
se
of
c
ar
bon
d
io
xid
e
em
is
s
i
o
n
s
c
o
mp
ar
e
to
1
9
8
0
(
100
00
to
ns)
R
e
a
l
c
a
r
b
on d
i
oxi
d
e
e
m
i
s
s
i
on
s
E
f
f
e
ct
o
f
em
i
s
s
i
o
n
f
a
c
t
o
r
s
E
f
f
e
c
t
o
f
s
e
ct
o
r
al
en
e
r
g
y
i
n
t
e
n
s
i
t
y
E
ffe
c
t
o
f
a
c
t
i
v
i
t
y
s
t
ru
c
t
u
r
e
E
f
f
e
c
t
o
f
s
e
ct
o
r
al
en
e
r
g
y
-
m
i
x
E
f
f
e
c
t
of
ove
r
a
l
l
a
c
t
i
vi
t
y
Figure 3. De
compo
s
ition of
CO
2
emissio
n
cha
nge
s in
Chin
a, 1980
-2011
The ce
ntral
govern
m
ent establi
s
h
e
s environ
ment
protectio
n
policy
ba
sed
on
the
environ
ment i
m
provem
ent. Mean
while, t
he ind
u
stry
a
nd en
ergy
structure rea
c
h
e
s o
p
timizati
on
by its internal
industry do
m
i
no effect, reg
i
on dom
in
o effect and en
ergy domino eff
e
ct, and finall
y
improve
s
env
ironm
ent qual
ity and forms
a benig
n
clo
s
ed loop
syste
m
(se
e
Figu
re 4).
Since
the
e
m
issi
on
s m
a
i
n
ly re
sult fro
m
co
n
s
umpti
on of fo
ssil f
uels,
re
duci
n
g en
ergy
con
s
um
ption seem
s
to be the
dire
ct wa
y
of
handlin
g
the pro
b
lem.
Ho
wever, d
u
e
to its ne
gati
v
e
impact
s
on e
c
on
omic d
e
velopme
n
t, re
duci
ng ene
rg
y consumptio
n may not be viable for Ch
ina.
In the future, the Chin
ese
gove
r
n
m
ent shoul
d
actively ab
sorb
su
ccessful inte
rnati
onal
experie
nces
and d
r
a
w
o
u
t feasibl
e
an
d
ope
rable
pol
icie
s an
d me
asu
r
e
s
to e
n
c
ou
rag
e
en
ergy
con
s
e
r
vation
and environm
ent prote
c
tion
.
Firstly, the m
ode of e
c
on
o
m
ic devel
op
ment
ca
n affect environm
ent quality. The se
co
nd
sector
appears to
have t
he highest share
of
responsi
b
ility on
the cont
inuous
rise of CO
2
emission
s,
the CO
2
emissi
ons m
a
inly come fro
m
the
indu
strial
se
ctor
and
coal
con
s
um
ption
,
in
the perio
d of 1980
-20
11, the indu
strial
CO
2
emissio
n
account
s for about
66.31
-85.93% of total
CO
2
emi
ssi
o
n
s. If China’
s economi
c
gro
w
th ke
ep
s relying o
n
these resou
r
ce
and e
n
e
r
gy
depe
ndent in
dustri
e
s, the
future of Chi
na’s e
c
o
nomi
c
gro
w
th is d
oomed. Hen
c
e China
sho
u
l
d
jump thro
ug
h the mesh
of heavy indu
striali
z
atio
n to a more
efficiency
-
oriented an
d less
resou
r
ce-d
epl
eted develo
p
m
ent mode,
so that mo
re ene
rgy can be save
d and a bet
ter
environ
ment
can b
e
re
se
rved for the nex
t generatio
n.
Secon
d
ly, en
ergy
co
nserv
a
tion i
s
so
far th
e m
o
st
impo
rtant
mean
to
red
u
ce
CO
2
emission
s, th
e comp
ositio
n of
ene
rgy
consumptio
n
i
n
China
is un
balan
ce
d in
compa
r
ison
wi
th
other
countri
e
s. China’
s heavy reliance on c
oal
will
make it the l
a
rgest emitter of CO
2
in t
h
e
worl
d. Furth
e
r
more, Chi
na’
s ene
rgy mix
has n
o
t ch
a
nged
signifi
cantly. In the
early 19
80
s, coal
accou
n
ts fo
r
71% of total
energy
con
s
u
m
ption. It d
r
o
pped
to its lo
we
st poi
nt of
66% in
20
02,
but
by 2011, it
had
climbe
d
back to 7
0
% [30]. This
si
tuation ha
s i
m
posed a
hi
gh cost o
n
the
eco
nomy in terms of en
vironme
n
tal damag
e associate
d
with
excessive use of coal. The
environ
menta
l
impact
asso
ciated
with e
nergy u
s
e
attracte
d wi
de
concern
as a result of the
n
e
w
eviden
ce lea
d
ing to a heat
ing deb
ate re
gardi
ng glo
b
a
l
climate ch
an
ges [25].
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
ISSN: 23
02-4
046
TELKOM
NIKA
Vol. 11, No
. 5, May 2013 : 2535 – 254
4
2542
Figure 4. The
mecha
n
ism of pressu
re
-d
riv
en environ
ment prote
c
ti
on model in
Chin
a
Becau
s
e oth
e
r option
s
like fuel swit
chi
ng and rene
wabl
e re
sou
r
ce
s have mu
ch le
ss
potential in
t
he
sho
r
t an
d
medium
term
. Chin
a i
s
a
cou
n
try sho
r
t of cl
ean
ene
rgy (su
c
h
a
s
oil,
natural g
a
s
a
nd hydro
po
wer an
d others), and ne
ar
ly
half of dome
s
tic oil con
s
u
m
ption dep
en
ds
on impo
rt currently. Theref
ore, one effe
ctive long-te
rm policy is to
diversify ene
rgy sup
p
ly wi
th
prefe
r
en
ce o
n
ren
e
wa
ble
energy (hydro, bioma
ss,
wind, ge
othermal, sola
r, a
nd tidal). In 2
005,
Chin
a firstly ena
cted the
Ren
e
wable E
nergy A
c
t
to
provide
the l
egal b
a
se for the develo
p
m
ent
of rene
wable
energy and
formulate its prin
cipl
e of R&D, industriali
zation,
popul
ari
z
atio
n &
appli
c
ation a
nd econo
mic incentive for rene
wa
ble
e
nergy expl
oitation and
utilization. In 20
07,
the Medi
um
and
Lon
g Te
rm
Develo
pm
ent Plan fo
r
Ren
e
wable E
nergy
stipul
ated a
con
c
ret
e
goal that the ratio of ren
e
wable en
ergy i
n
to
tal energy
con
s
umptio
n
shoul
d be no
less tha
n
10
%
in 20
10 a
nd
15% in
202
0, whil
e the
re
newable
sh
o
u
ld a
c
count f
o
r n
o
le
ss th
an 3
0
% of to
tal
power ge
neration ca
pa
city in
2020. Additionally, there is p
o
tential for ch
ange
s thro
u
g
h
addition
al p
r
o
ductio
n
of n
u
c
lea
r
e
nergy
and al
te
rn
ate
ene
rgy sou
r
ce
s
in Chi
na and/or
thro
ugh
polici
e
s to im
prove en
ergy efficien
cy in the Chi
n
e
s
e e
c
on
omy.
Thirdly, the central government sh
oul
d place
tight
limitations o
n
the export
of high
energy-inte
n
sive prod
uct
s
and the inve
stment in
th
e ene
rgy-inte
nsive p
r
od
ucts. As a maj
o
r
exporte
r of e
nergy
-inten
si
ve pro
d
u
c
ts,
Chin
a con
s
u
m
ed m
u
ch en
ergy
while
e
m
itted mu
ch
GHG,
su
ch a
s
CO
2
.
Increa
se
s in
the ratio
of
exports to do
mestic dem
a
nd of
se
con
d
ary en
ergy
e
x
er
t
an in
cre
a
si
n
g
impa
ct on
CO
2
emi
s
sions
relate
d to prim
ary e
nergy in
put for expo
rts [
12].
Ho
wever, giv
en Chin
a’s h
i
gh use of coal in el
ectri
c
ity produ
ctio
n and ineffici
ent prod
uctio
n
system
s rel
a
tive
to
tho
s
e nation
s
exporting
go
ods to
Chin
a, this
assu
mption la
rg
e
l
y
overe
s
timate
s the a
c
tual
embodi
ed CO
2
in Chin
a’s imports. Pet
e
rs
and
He
rtwich (2
008
) found
that the a
c
tu
al emi
ssio
n
s
embodi
ed in
Chin
ese im
p
o
rts
we
re al
most fou
r
tim
e
s lo
we
r tha
n
the
emission
s em
bodie
d
in Chi
nese export
s
.
Im
prove
m
e
nt of e
n
v
i
ro
nm
e
n
t
qua
lity
:
·
d
ecr
eas
e o
f
CO
2
em
issions
·
d
ecr
eas
e o
f
S
O
2
em
issions
·
d
ecr
eas
e o
f
s
o
l
i
d
o
f
f
a
l
Ind
u
s
t
ry
dom
ino o
f
f
e
c
t:
·pr
o
d
u
c
t
str
u
c
t
ure
o
p
tim
iz
a
tion
·te
c
hnol
ogy
e
q
u
i
pm
e
n
t a
dva
nc
em
e
n
t
·m
a
n
a
g
eme
n
t le
ve
l
e
x
a
lta
tion
R
e
gion d
o
m
i
no of
fe
c
t:
·e
c
onom
y
de
ve
lopm
e
n
t
·re
so
urc
e
optim
iz
e
coll
oc
a
tion
·
i
nd
us
t
r
y s
t
ru
ct
ur
e a
d
j
u
s
t
E
n
e
r
gy
dom
ino of
fe
c
t:
·e
ne
rgy
str
u
c
t
ure
ra
tiona
l
i
z
a
tion
·e
ne
rgy
pric
e
ma
rke
tin
g
·sc
i
e
n
c
e
a
nd te
c
hnol
ogy
le
ve
l
a
dva
nc
e
E
nvir
onm
e
n
t-p
r
o.
m
o
tivity
Envir
onm
e
n
t-p
r
o. a
b
ili
ty
:
·te
c
hnol
ogy
e
q
u
i
pm
e
n
t
·
p
ro
du
ct
s
t
ru
ct
u
r
e
·c
a
p
ita
l gua
ra
nte
e
·e
ne
rgy
str
u
c
t
ure
E
nvir
onm
e
n
t-p
r
o.
a
c
tion:
·pu
r
c
h
a
s
in
g a
dva
nc
e
d
e
quipm
e
n
t
·im
p
rov
i
n
g
pr
od
uc
t str
u
c
t
ure
·
u
si
ng
cl
ean
en
er
g
y
E
c
onom
ic
m
e
a
n
s:
·e
nvi
ro
nm
e
n
t ta
x
·e
xc
ha
nge
pol
lu
tio
n
righ
t
·po
llu
tio
n c
h
a
r
ge
Educ
a
tion p
u
b
lic
iz
e
s
:
·e
nvi
ro
n.
-p
ro.
k
now
le
dge
·e
nvi
ro
n.-p
ro. ide
a
s
A
d
m
i
nistra
ti
on m
e
ans:
·re
gu
la
tio
n di
re
c
tly
·su
b
si
dy
dire
c
tly
C
o
m
pulsory
p
o
lic
ie
s
Law me
an
s
:
·e
nvi
ro
nm
e
n
t la
w
s
·e
nvi
ro
nm
e
n
t supe
r
v
ise
Inc
e
n
tive
p
o
lic
ie
s
Na
tiona
l po
lic
y
·
i
nd
us
t
r
y p
o
l
i
c
y
·re
ge
ne
ra
tio
n e
n
e
r
g
y
polic
y
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
TELKOM
NIKA
ISSN:
2302-4
046
Main Player i
n
Indust
r
ial Carbo
n
Em
issi
ons in
Chin
a (Liu Zh
enling
)
2543
Fourthly, Te
chnolo
g
ical i
n
novation
s
an
d im
prove
m
e
n
ts are one
of the most
effective
w
a
ys
o
f
r
edu
c
i
ng
C
O
2
e
m
issi
on
s. As the leading
emitter of CO
2
, China will com
e
under
increasing
pressure to assume mo
re responsi
bility for its emi
ssi
ons. Some Chinese busi
nesses
are al
rea
d
y willing to take action
s. Incre
a
ses in
e
nergy efficie
n
c
y will also lead to ch
ang
es in
other
emi
ssi
o
n
s. G
o
vern
m
ent-supp
orte
d R&
D, te
c
h
nical
a
ssi
st
a
n
ce,
t
r
ainin
g
,
and
inf
o
r
m
a
t
ion
excha
nge
co
ntinued to
play an impo
rt
ant role i
n
Chin
a’s e
n
e
r
gy efficien
cy improvem
en
t in
1990
s.
Wu
e
t
al. [12] poi
nted o
u
t, as
one
of t
he
m
o
st imp
o
rta
n
t economi
c
i
m
petuses d
r
i
v
ing
energy effici
ency im
provements, i
n
ve
stment in
technical up
gra
des an
d tra
n
s
form
ation i
n
the
electri
c
ity sector in
cre
a
sed
sha
r
ply in
1
990 a
nd a
ccelerate
d furth
e
r
sin
c
e 1
9
9
6
. Introdu
cin
g
the
CO
2
tax i
s
a
n
effective
way
to de
crea
se
emission
s.
Wheneve
r
fea
s
i
b
le, en
ergy
conservation
a
n
d
redu
ction
of output sh
are
of ener
gy
-in
t
ensive secto
r
s a
r
e imp
o
rt
ant strate
gie
s
for redu
cin
g
energy intensity.
Lastly, it is urg
ent to
set u
p
an
d
com
p
lete a
n
effective
environ
ment-prote
ction
manag
eme
n
t system, i
n
crea
se inv
e
stment
of
environm
e
n
t-protectio
n
, and en
act
the
environ
ment-prote
ction l
a
ws. In
addit
i
on,
promoti
ng regul
atio
n mea
s
u
r
e
s
and
enh
an
cing
sup
e
rvisi
on o
f
pollution e
m
issi
on ca
n also
gu
ar
a
n
tee the
re
alization of
environment
-prote
ction
goal
s. At the sam
e
tim
e
, it is imp
o
rtant to
em
pha
size the
criti
c
al role
played by
local
govern
m
ent
s in enviro
n
m
ent-p
rote
ction. The
cen
t
ral gove
r
nm
ent ha
s forb
idden
som
e
low
efficien
cy pro
ductio
n
, inclu
d
ing shutting
down ine
fficie
n
t gene
rators in the ele
c
tri
c
ity se
ctor a
n
d
terminatin
g in
efficient mini
n
g
op
eratio
ns.
In t
he
future, the
Chine
s
e govern
m
ent must
im
plem
ent
more e
c
o
nom
ic incentive p
o
licie
s to enh
ance ene
rgy efficien
cy.
China plans
to rehabilitat
e old
plant
s
with
large
and rel
a
tively efficient unit
s
. These
initiatives cou
l
d be exp
e
cte
d
to play a
ro
le in
continu
e
d
re
du
ction
s
i
n
Chi
na’
s carbon inte
nsity,
thus re
du
cin
g
fuel con
s
u
m
ption and i
m
provin
g
the environme
n
t. With the growth of average
labor p
r
od
uct
i
vity, which
has a domi
n
ant positive effect on CO
2
emissio
n
s,
is expected
to
recover in the
near future d
ue to re
forms in the industrial se
ctor [29]
.
6. Conclusio
n
s
In this p
ape
r, we a
nalyze
d the n
a
ture
of the fa
cto
r
s th
at influe
nce t
he
cha
nge
s of
energy-relate
d
CO
2
emi
s
si
ons in
Chin
a
betwee
n
19
80-2
011
based on the L
M
DI, and trie
d to
she
d
light on
the role of the driving fa
ct
ors in thi
s
p
e
riod. Th
e factors in
cludin
g
CO
2
e
c
ono
mic
activity effect, structu
r
e
effect, energy intens
ity effect, energy-mix
effect, and
emission
-fa
c
tor
effect. The p
e
riod i
s
divid
ed into th
ree
intervals a
c
cording to
th
e economi
c
developm
ent
of
Chin
a. Con
s
istent
with p
r
evious stu
d
ie
s, the
de
com
positio
n a
nal
ysis
reveal
ed
that, of all t
he
individual fa
ctors, e
c
o
nomi
c
growth
a
ccounts fo
r the l
a
rge
s
t in
crea
se in
CO
2
e
m
issi
on
s in the
all
sub
-
pe
rio
d
s,
and d
e
cli
n
e
s
in en
ergy in
tensity and
e
nergy mix
ad
justment
we
re ca
uses to the
slo
w
do
wn
of
ca
rbo
n
e
m
i
ssi
on
s in
Ch
ina fro
m
1
9
8
0
to 2
011.
The a
c
cum
u
l
a
tive theoretical
decrea
s
e
of
CO
2
emissio
n
s
between
1980
to
201
1 am
ounte
d
to 4
814.4
5
Mton
s a
n
d
the
theoreti
c
al d
e
crea
se rate
was 94.5
1
%, the resu
lt wa
s mainly attributed by
improving e
nergy
effic
i
enc
y
.
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