Indonesi
an
Journa
l
of El
ect
ri
cal Engineer
ing
an
d
Comp
ut
er
Scie
nce
Vo
l.
23
,
No.
1
,
Ju
ly
2021
, p
p.
3
9
6
~
4
04
IS
S
N: 25
02
-
4752, DO
I: 10
.11
591/ijeecs
.v
23
.i
1
.
pp
3
9
6
-
404
396
Journ
al h
om
e
page
:
http:
//
ij
eecs.i
aesc
or
e.c
om
Develop
ment of
a
m
odel fo
r
e
valuating
the
e
ff
ective
ness of
i
nn
ov
ative
s
t
artup
s
b
ased on
i
nf
ormation
c
yc
l
es an
d
u
sing
n
eura
l
n
etworks
Mo
r
oz
ov V
ik
t
or,
Ko
l
omiie
ts
A
n
na,
Mez
entseva Ol
ga
Ta
ras
Shev
che
n
ko
Nati
on
al Uni
ver
sit
y
of
K
y
iv,
K
y
iv
,
Ukrai
ne
Art
ic
le
In
f
o
ABSTR
A
CT
Art
ic
le
history:
Re
cei
ved
Ja
n 1
9
, 2
021
Re
vised
Jun
7
,
2021
Accepte
d
J
un
14
, 202
1
An
int
egr
a
te
d
ap
proa
ch
to
the
cr
e
at
ion
and
develo
pm
ent
of
innovative
sta
rtup
proje
c
ts
in
the
fie
ld
of
in
form
at
ion
t
ec
hno
log
y
is
consid
ere
d
.
To
condu
ct
rese
arc
h
,
th
e
au
thors
proposed
a
m
odel
of
inf
orm
at
ion
c
y
c
le
s
of
start
u
p
proje
c
ts
base
d
o
n
the
cr
ea
t
ion
of
an
informati
o
n
m
odel
of
such
p
roje
c
ts.
At
the
sam
e
ti
m
e
the
re
are
d
y
n
amic
proc
esses
of
cha
nges
in
the
pa
ramet
ers
of
the
m
odel,
whi
c
h
are
turbulent
in
nat
u
re
and
r
e
quire
the
use
of
tool
s
and
m
et
hods
of
art
ifi
ci
a
l
int
e
ll
ig
enc
e
for
rese
arc
h
.
Th
e
ke
y
a
rea
s
of
knowledge
of
such
infl
uence
are
def
in
ed.
The
m
at
hemat
i
ca
l
m
odel
of
proc
esses
of
m
ana
gement
of
deve
lopment
of
informati
on
t
ec
h
nolog
y
(
IT
)
st
artups
on
th
e
basis
of
cr
ea
t
io
n
and
dev
el
op
m
ent
of
a
d
ifficult
I
T
produ
ct
,
ta
king
into
ac
coun
t
infl
uen
c
es
of
envi
ronm
ent
s
of
the
p
roje
ct
is
construc
t
ed
,
the
basic
cha
ra
cteri
sti
cs
are
al
lo
cate
d
an
d
par
amete
rs
ar
e
def
ine
d
.
To
do
thi
s,
th
e
construc
t
ion
of
pre
dictive
m
ode
ls
is
proposed
to
be
ca
rr
ie
d
ou
t
b
y
m
odified
Dem
arc
tre
nds,
t
he
m
et
hod
of
self
-
orga
ni
za
t
ion
a
nd
the
neur
al
ne
twork.
Th
e
m
odel
ing
of
the
m
ai
n
obje
ct
iv
e
func
ti
ons
of
the
m
at
hemati
c
al
m
odel
of
the
se
proc
esses
is
per
f
orm
ed.
The
anal
y
sis
of
th
e
r
ec
e
i
ved
result
s
is
ca
r
rie
d
out
and
the
conc
lusions
are
m
ad
e
.
Ke
yw
or
d
s
:
Eff
ic
ie
ncy
Inform
at
ion
cyc
le
s
Inform
at
ion
i
m
pacts
Neural
netw
orks
Pr
oject
m
anage
m
ent
Ri
sk
s
Startu
p proj
e
ct
s
This
is an
open
acc
ess arti
cl
e
un
der
the
CC
B
Y
-
SA
l
ic
ense
.
Corres
pond
in
g
Aut
h
or
:
Mor
ozov Vikt
or
Dep
a
rtm
ent o
f Te
ch
no
l
og
y M
anag
em
ent
Taras
Sh
e
vc
he
n
ko
Nati
onal
Un
i
ver
sit
y o
f Kyi
v
24, B
ohda
n Ga
vr
il
i
sh
in
str.,
K
yi
v,
01
601, U
krai
ne
Em
a
il
:
kn
um
vv
@
gm
ai
l.co
m
1.
INTROD
U
CTION
An
al
ysi
s
of
the
cu
rr
e
nt
ex
per
ie
nce
of
pro
j
ect
m
anag
em
ent
in
Ukra
ine
ind
ic
at
es
the
rap
i
d
dev
el
op
m
ent
of
pro
j
ect
m
anag
em
ent
m
et
ho
do
l
og
ie
s
,
es
pe
ci
al
ly
in
the
IT
fiel
d
[1]
-
[
8]
.
A
s
pecial
pl
ace
is
occupied
by
m
et
hodo
l
og
ie
s
f
or
in
novative
s
ta
rtup
pro
j
ect
s
(S
U
P)
[
2],
wh
i
ch
a
re
ass
ociat
ed
with
the
an
al
ysi
s
of
num
ero
us
risk
e
ven
ts
[
3]
duri
ng
t
he
im
pl
e
m
entat
ion
of
su
c
h
pr
oj
ect
s.
This
is
es
pecia
ll
y
true
in
c
onnecti
on
with
t
he
e
ff
ec
t
of
qua
ran
ti
ne
m
easur
es
in
the
c
onte
xt
of
the
gl
ob
al
CO
VID
-
19
pa
nd
em
ic
[4
]
,
wh
i
c
h
sign
ific
a
ntly
i
ntr
oduces
unpredict
abili
ty
in
the
res
ults
of
i
m
ple
m
enting
al
read
y
ris
ky
inno
vations
[
5].
Bu
t
furthe
r devel
opm
ent o
f
hum
anity
is n
ot
po
s
sible wit
ho
ut in
novatio
n.
To
day,
the
co
m
pet
it
iveness
of
a
ny
com
pany
is
so
m
eho
w
connecte
d
with
an
inno
vative
appr
oach
[6
]
to
s
olv
in
g
bus
iness
pro
blem
s
.
A
ce
rtai
n
m
anag
e
m
ent
m
e
thodo
l
og
y
is
ne
cessary
for
st
artu
p
perform
e
rs
t
o
achieve
the
set
resu
lt
s
and
i
m
ple
m
ent
the
idea
[7
]
.
This
is
especial
ly
i
m
po
rtant
for
the
high
-
te
c
h
industry,
wh
e
re s
ta
rtu
ps
are cr
eat
e
d
i
n
t
he fo
rm
o
f
ec
osy
stem
s [
8].
Howe
ver,
it
sh
ou
l
d
be
note
d
that
the
creati
on
of
su
c
h
ec
os
yst
em
s
req
ui
res
sign
i
ficant
inv
est
m
ent.
The
a
uthors
a
naly
zed
the
sta
ti
sti
cs
sh
ow
that
the
re
are
a
num
ber
of
r
isks
that
a
ff
ec
t
the
res
ults
of
th
e
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
Ind
on
esi
a
n
J
E
le
c Eng &
Co
m
p
Sci
IS
S
N:
25
02
-
4752
Develo
pm
e
nt
of
a
model fo
r e
valu
ating t
he
e
ff
ect
iv
eness
of
innovativ
e st
art
up
s
b
as
e
d on…
(
Moro
z
ov
Vi
kt
or
)
397
i
m
ple
m
entat
io
n
of
su
c
h
pro
je
ct
s,
accor
ding
ly
red
uce
the
eff
ic
ie
ncy
of
inv
e
stm
ent
in
su
ch
pro
j
ect
s
and
ca
n
reduce all
e
ffort
s to
create
and
d
e
velo
p
IT
products
[9
]
of s
uch pr
oj
ect
s t
o no
t
hing.
A
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
i
s
a
s
m
a
l
l
c
o
m
p
a
n
y
t
h
a
t
t
r
i
e
s
t
o
i
m
p
l
e
m
e
n
t
t
h
e
f
o
u
n
d
e
r
s
b
u
s
i
n
e
s
s
i
d
e
a
a
n
d
i
s
l
o
o
k
i
n
g
f
o
r
a
s
c
a
l
a
b
l
e
b
u
s
i
n
e
s
s
m
o
d
e
l
[
1
0
]
.
T
h
e
m
a
i
n
f
e
a
t
u
r
e
o
f
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
s
i
s
i
n
n
o
v
a
t
i
o
n
.
T
o
d
a
y
,
t
h
e
r
e
i
s
f
i
e
r
c
e
c
o
m
p
e
t
i
t
i
o
n
i
n
t
h
e
m
a
r
k
e
t
a
n
d
m
o
s
t
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
s
f
a
i
l
w
i
t
h
o
u
t
r
e
a
c
h
i
n
g
t
h
e
p
r
o
d
u
c
t
m
a
r
k
e
t
f
i
t
(
P
M
F
)
p
o
i
n
t
(
t
h
e
s
t
a
t
e
o
f
t
h
e
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
w
h
e
n
i
t
f
u
l
l
y
m
e
e
t
s
t
h
e
n
e
e
d
s
o
f
t
h
e
m
a
r
k
e
t
)
.
I
n
o
t
h
e
r
w
o
r
d
s
,
t
h
e
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
w
a
s
u
n
a
b
l
e
t
o
s
e
l
l
i
t
s
p
r
o
d
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c
t
t
o
p
o
t
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n
t
i
a
l
c
u
s
t
o
m
e
r
s
a
n
d
i
t
t
u
r
n
e
d
o
u
t
t
o
b
e
u
n
n
e
c
e
s
s
a
r
y
f
o
r
t
h
e
m
a
r
k
e
t
.
T
h
e
n
e
e
d
f
o
r
v
a
l
u
e
f
o
r
c
u
s
t
o
m
e
r
s
i
s
o
n
e
o
f
t
h
e
k
e
y
s
t
o
p
r
o
m
o
t
i
n
g
a
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
i
n
t
h
e
m
a
r
k
e
t
.
A
c
c
o
r
d
i
n
g
t
o
r
e
s
e
a
r
c
h
[
1
1
]
,
7
0
%
o
f
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
s
f
a
i
l
e
d
e
v
e
n
b
e
f
o
r
e
t
h
e
s
t
a
r
t
o
f
t
h
e
p
a
n
d
e
m
i
c
-
r
e
l
a
t
e
d
c
r
i
s
i
s
,
a
n
d
t
h
e
m
a
i
n
r
e
a
s
o
n
s
f
o
r
t
h
e
i
r
f
a
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l
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r
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n
t
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a
r
k
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a
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h
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p
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b
y
t
h
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m
a
r
k
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(
d
o
e
s
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t
b
r
i
n
g
v
a
l
u
e
t
o
t
h
e
u
s
e
r
)
,
l
a
c
k
o
f
i
n
v
e
s
t
m
e
n
t
a
n
d
a
w
e
a
k
p
r
o
j
e
c
t
t
e
a
m
.
I
t
s
ho
ul
d
be
no
t
e
d
t
ha
t
t
hi
s
a
r
t
i
c
l
e
di
s
c
us
s
e
s
a
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
pe
of
s
t
a
r
t
up
s
f
or
c
om
pa
ni
e
s
w
i
th
a
bu
s
i
ne
s
s
m
od
e
l
of
S
a
aS
(
s
of
t
w
a
r
e
a
s
a
s
e
r
vi
c
e
)
a
nd
B
2B
(
b
us
i
ne
s
s
t
o
bu
s
i
ne
s
s
)
[
7]
.
S
uc
h
c
o
m
pa
ni
e
s
ha
ve
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
pr
o
bl
em
s
w
i
t
h
l
on
g
s
a
l
e
s
c
y
c
le
s
of
I
T
p
r
o
du
c
t
s
,
s
i
nc
e
t
he
cl
i
e
nt
'
s
de
ci
s
i
on
i
s
c
ol
l
ec
t
i
ve
an
d
de
pe
n
ds
o
n
m
a
ny
f
a
c
t
or
s
a
nd
c
o
n
di
t
i
on
s
f
or
us
i
n
g
t
he
s
t
a
r
t
up
'
s
pr
o
du
c
t
f
o
r
t
he
i
r
ow
n
b
us
i
ne
s
s
.
T
he
r
e
f
o
r
e
,
t
h
e
qu
a
l
i
t
y
of
c
us
t
om
e
r
s
e
r
vi
c
e
s
i
gn
i
f
i
c
a
nt
l
y
a
f
f
e
c
t
s
t
he
pe
r
f
or
m
a
nc
e
of
s
uc
h
c
om
pa
ni
e
s
a
nd
i
s
a
c
om
pl
e
x
i
nd
i
c
a
t
or
t
ha
t
de
pe
nd
s
on
m
a
ny
f
a
ct
or
s
.
I
n
a
dd
i
t
i
on
,
t
he
B
2B
m
od
e
l
i
n
t
hi
s
c
a
s
e
i
s
c
ha
r
a
c
t
e
r
i
z
e
d
by
cu
s
t
om
e
r
e
xp
e
r
ie
nc
e
,
w
hi
c
h
i
s
ba
s
e
d
on
nu
m
e
r
ou
s
i
nt
e
r
a
c
t
i
on
s
w
i
t
h
t
he
s
t
a
r
t
up
o
w
ne
r
c
om
pa
ny
.
S
o,
t
o
so
l
ve
t
he
pr
ob
l
e
m
s
of
e
f
f
e
c
t
i
ve
ne
s
s
of
c
om
pl
e
x
i
nn
o
va
t
i
ve
s
t
a
r
t
up
pr
o
je
c
t
s
i
n
t
he
f
i
e
l
d
of
hi
g
h
t
e
c
hn
ol
og
i
e
s
,
y
ou
s
ho
ul
d
f
i
r
s
t
ou
t
l
i
ne
t
he
r
a
ng
e
of
q
ue
s
t
i
on
s
t
ha
t
ne
e
d
t
o
be
a
ns
w
e
r
e
d.
A
m
on
g
ot
he
r
s
,
s
uc
h
qu
e
s
t
i
on
s
a
r
e
r
e
l
a
t
e
d
t
o
at
t
r
a
ct
i
ng
i
nv
e
s
tm
e
nt
t
o
s
t
a
rt
up
pr
oj
e
c
t
s
[10]
,
a
m
on
g
w
hi
c
h
i
nv
e
s
t
m
e
nt
r
ou
nd
s
a
r
e
a
na
l
y
z
e
d,
a
nd
t
he
di
f
f
e
r
e
nc
e
i
n
s
e
t
t
i
ng
go
a
l
s
by
s
t
a
r
t
up
m
a
na
ge
m
e
nt
f
or
s
e
l
e
c
t
i
ng
a
nd
a
t
t
r
a
c
t
i
ng
s
pe
c
i
f
ic
i
nv
e
s
t
or
s
i
s
e
xp
l
a
i
ne
d.
Y
o
u
s
ho
ul
d
a
l
s
o
pa
y
a
t
te
nt
i
on
t
o
t
he
e
xp
e
c
t
a
t
i
on
s
of
i
nv
e
s
t
or
s
,
w
hi
c
h
a
r
e
im
po
r
ta
nt
f
o
r
y
ou
n
g
c
om
pa
ni
e
s
t
o m
e
e
t
.
A
t
t
he
sam
e
t
im
e
,
t
he
pr
i
or
i
t
y
t
a
s
k
f
or
t
he
d
e
ve
l
o
pm
en
t
of
s
t
a
r
t
up
s
i
n
t
he
de
ve
l
op
m
e
nt
a
nd
im
pl
em
e
nt
at
i
on
o
f
m
od
e
r
n
i
nt
e
gr
a
t
e
d
s
o
f
t
w
a
r
e
a
p
pl
i
c
a
t
io
ns
i
s
t
he
a
va
i
l
a
bi
li
t
y
of
i
nt
e
ll
i
ge
nt
s
up
p
or
t
t
ha
t
w
i
ll
a
l
l
ow
op
t
im
iz
in
g
c
os
t
s
[
1
2]
f
or
s
uc
h
de
ve
l
o
pm
e
nt
a
nd
i
nt
e
gr
a
t
i
on
,
a
s
w
e
l
l
a
s
op
t
im
i
z
i
ng
(r
e
d
uc
i
ng
)
t
he
t
im
e
f
or
t
he
i
r
de
ve
l
op
m
e
nt
.
T
hi
s
w
i
l
l
dr
a
m
at
i
c
al
ly
a
f
f
e
c
t
t
he
e
f
f
e
c
t
iv
e
ne
s
s
o
f
t
he
de
ve
l
op
m
e
nt
of
a
n
i
n
no
va
t
i
ve
I
T
pr
o
du
c
t
a
n
d
be
com
es
a
t
op
pr
i
or
i
t
y
i
n m
od
e
r
n
m
a
r
ke
t
c
on
di
t
i
on
s
.
T
he
w
o
r
ks
o
f
t
he
f
ol
l
ow
i
n
g
U
kr
a
i
ni
a
n
s
c
i
e
nt
is
t
s
w
e
r
e
de
vo
t
e
d
t
o
t
he
de
ve
l
op
m
e
nt
of
m
ode
r
n
pr
o
je
c
t
m
a
na
ge
m
e
nt
m
e
t
ho
do
l
o
gi
e
s
[
7
]
,
[1
3
]
-
[
17
]
.
C
on
s
i
de
r
i
ng
t
he
p
r
ob
l
e
m
s
of
m
an
a
gi
ng
s
t
a
r
t
u
p p
r
o
je
c
t
s
i
n h
i
gh
-
t
e
c
h
i
nd
us
t
r
i
e
s
,
w
e
s
ho
ul
d
f
oc
us
o
n
t
he
w
o
r
ks
o
f
s
uc
h
s
c
i
e
nt
i
s
t
s
a
s
:
[
18
]
-
[
20
]
.
T
he
pr
o
bl
e
m
s
of
im
pr
ov
i
ng
t
h
e
e
f
f
i
c
i
e
nc
y
of
p
r
oj
e
c
t
i
m
pl
em
en
t
a
t
i
on
us
i
ng
a
r
t
i
f
i
c
i
al
i
nt
el
li
ge
nc
e
m
e
t
ho
ds
t
o
s
ol
ve
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
ng
pr
ob
l
e
m
s
w
e
r
e
de
vo
t
e
d
t
o
t
he
w
or
ks
o
f
s
uc
h
s
c
i
e
nt
i
st
s
a
s
[
21
]
-
[2
3
].
A
na
l
y
s
i
s
of
i
nf
or
m
a
ti
on
s
ou
r
c
e
s
[
5
]
-
[
2
3
]
a
ll
ow
s
us
t
o
c
o
nc
l
ud
e
t
ha
t
f
or
e
f
f
e
c
t
i
ve
m
a
n
a
ge
m
e
nt
of
c
om
pl
e
x
inno
va
ti
ve
s
t
a
r
t
up
s
,
t
he
r
e
a
r
e
r
e
a
l
l
y
no
i
nt
e
g
r
a
t
e
d
m
od
e
l
s
a
nd
m
et
ho
ds
t
ha
t
a
l
l
ow
us
t
o
r
e
s
po
n
d
t
o
t
he
t
ur
bu
l
e
nt
im
pa
c
t
s
of
t
he
pr
oj
e
c
t
e
nv
i
r
on
m
e
nt
a
t
t
he
l
ow
e
s
t
co
s
t
.
T
hi
s
s
i
gn
i
f
i
c
a
nt
ly
r
e
du
c
e
s
t
he
op
po
r
t
u
ni
t
ie
s
f
or
e
f
f
e
c
t
i
ve
m
a
na
ge
m
e
nt
of
s
uc
h
pr
oj
e
c
t
s
.
I
n
t
ur
n
,
t
he
po
s
s
i
b
i
l
it
i
es
of
pr
oa
c
t
i
ve
m
a
na
ge
m
en
t
[
2
4
]
i
n
hi
gh
-
t
e
c
h
pr
o
je
c
t
s
,
w
hi
c
h
w
ou
l
d
a
l
l
ow
t
a
ki
ng
i
nt
o
a
c
c
ou
nt
c
om
pl
ex
dy
na
m
i
c
im
pa
c
t
s
on
t
he
pr
oc
e
s
s
e
s
of
p
r
od
uc
t
c
r
e
a
t
i
on
a
nd
pr
oj
e
c
t
m
a
na
ge
m
e
nt
,
a
r
e
i
ns
uf
f
i
c
i
e
nt
ly
s
t
ud
i
e
d.
The
pu
rpose
of
the
arti
cl
e
is
to
sub
sta
ntiat
e
and
dev
el
op
a
con
ce
ptu
al
m
od
el
of
in
form
at
ion
cy
cl
es
for
creati
ng
a
nd
de
velo
ping
i
nnovat
ive
sta
rt
up
pro
j
ect
s,
to
stud
y
the
e
ff
ec
ti
ven
ess
functi
on
s
of
su
c
h
proj
ect
s
us
in
g forecast
ing m
et
ho
ds
ba
sed on i
ntell
ect
ual sup
port to
ol
s.
This a
ppr
oa
ch wil
l
ta
ke
int
o
acc
ount the
im
pact
of
num
erical
ri
sk
s
on
t
he
ef
fe
ct
iveness
of
i
nnovat
ive
pro
j
e
ct
s,
w
hich
in
t
urn
will
ta
ke
into
acc
ount
re
s
pons
es
to d
y
nam
ic
ch
ang
e
s a
nd turb
ul
ence.
2.
RESEA
R
CH MET
HO
D
As
note
d
ab
ov
e,
wh
e
n
m
aking
a
decisi
on
on
fina
ncin
g
va
rio
us
ty
pes
of
sta
rtups,
it
is
n
ecessa
ry
to
ta
ke
int
o
acc
ount
not
only
t
he
in
novati
on
of
the
c
reated
pro
du
ct
or
it
s
ver
sat
il
it
y,
but
al
so
t
o
e
valu
at
e
its
eff
ect
ive
ness.
H
owe
ver,
in
m
od
e
r
n
conditi
ons
of
co
ns
ta
nt
changes
a
nd
va
rio
us
kinds
of
exter
nal
influ
e
nces,
i
t
is som
et
i
m
es q
uite dif
ficult
to
d
et
erm
ine this
clea
rly
enoug
h.
Unde
r
these
conditi
ons,
the
auth
or
s
propos
e
an
inform
at
i
on
cy
cl
e
m
od
e
l,
it
erati
ve
m
o
deling
of
the
sta
ges
of
wh
ic
h
will
al
low
for
a
m
or
e
accur
at
e
assess
m
ent
of
the
sta
te
of
sta
rtup
s
with
gr
a
du
al
foreca
sti
ng
of
their
pa
ram
et
e
rs
to
asses
s
pe
rfor
m
ance.
F
or
this
pur
po
se
,
certai
n
set
s
of
data
on
the
sta
te
of
s
uch
pro
je
ct
s
at
the
sta
ges
of
their
creati
on
a
nd
dev
el
op
m
ent
will
be
reco
r
de
d,
with
th
e
abili
ty
to
us
e
su
ch
data
set
s
for
trai
ning
intel
li
gen
t
t
oo
ls.
A
nd
with
t
he
he
lp
of
these
t
oo
ls
,
it
will
be
possible
to
pr
e
dict
the
sta
te
of
eff
ect
ive
ness
of
s
uc
h
pro
j
e
ct
s
and
at
the
sa
m
e
tim
e
e
ns
ure
a
m
or
e
accurate
decisi
on
-
m
aking
proce
s
s
reg
a
rd
i
ng tre
nc
h
in
vestm
ent in suc
h proj
ect
s
. An
e
xam
ple of the
prop
os
e
d m
od
el
can
be
s
how
n
in
Fig
ure
1
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
IS
S
N
:
2502
-
4752
Ind
on
esi
a
n
J
E
le
c Eng &
Co
m
p
Sci,
Vo
l.
23
, N
o.
1
,
Ju
ly
2021
:
3
9
6
-
4
0
4
398
Con
si
der
i
ng
th
e
com
po
ne
nts
of
the
pro
pose
d
inf
orm
ation
cy
cl
e
m
od
el
,
w
e
can
see
that
it
s
first
sta
ge
is
to
create
a
descr
i
ption
of
the
el
e
m
ents
of
the
inform
at
i
on
syst
em
.
At
the
sa
m
e
t
i
m
e,
the
sta
rtup
it
sel
f
i
s
consi
der
e
d
a
s
su
c
h
a
syst
em
.
Af
te
r
cr
eat
ing
su
c
h
a
desc
rip
ti
on
,
y
ou
sho
ul
d
def
i
ne
in
div
i
du
al
pa
ram
et
er
s
that
are
af
fected
by
certai
n
c
ha
nges
in
t
he
pro
j
e
ct
env
i
ronm
ent.
S
uch
an
e
nv
i
ronm
ent
chang
es
al
l
the
ti
m
e,
these
changes
are p
oorly
pr
e
dicte
d and ha
ve
a
s
pontane
ous
a
nd s
om
eti
m
es h
ighl
y t
ur
bule
nt c
ha
racter.
Along
with
t
he
fact
that
it
is
necessa
ry
to
a
ssess
possi
ble
changes
as
a
r
esult
of
su
c
h
i
m
pacts,
it
is
necessa
ry
to
si
m
ula
te
the
sta
te
of
the
in
for
m
at
ion
syst
em
(S
ta
rt
up)
a
nd
determ
ine
the
pr
e
dicte
d
sta
te
s
of
it
s
par
am
et
ers.
Th
is
can
be
done
than
ks
to
a
trai
ned
neural
net
work
[
25
]
,
w
hich
is
based
on
data
from
the
i
niti
al
sta
ges
of
creati
ng
a
nd
de
velo
ping
a
sta
rtu
p.
In
acc
orda
nce
with
the
asses
s
m
ent
of
the
sta
te
of
ef
fecti
ve
ne
ss
of
su
c
h
a
pro
j
ect
, a
decisi
on
is
m
ade
w
hethe
r
to
m
ake
su
c
h
ch
ang
e
s
to
the p
a
ram
et
ers
of
the
Inform
at
ion
Syst
e
m
or not. T
he
n
th
is cy
cl
e can be
rep
eat
e
d weekl
y.
Figure
1
.
Mo
de
l of the i
nform
at
ion
cyc
le
of ec
os
yst
em
d
evelo
pm
ent
SUP
Turnin
g
t
o
the
form
al
descr
ipti
on
of
the
pro
pose
d
co
nce
ptua
l
m
od
el
,
it
shou
l
d
be
no
te
d
t
hat
the
vast
m
ajo
rity
of
high
-
te
c
h
sta
rtu
ps
are
associat
ed
with
the
creati
on
of
in
f
or
m
at
i
on
syst
em
s
(
IS
).
S
uch
syst
em
s,
on
the
one
ha
nd,
autom
at
e
certai
n
ty
pes
of
busin
ess
act
ivit
ie
s,
on
the
oth
e
r
hand,
are
th
e
sub
j
ect
of
c
ertai
n
researc
h
i
n ord
er to m
od
el
and im
pr
ove the
char
act
e
risti
cs and p
a
ram
et
ers
of the
startu
p
i
tse
lf.
Let
'
s
assum
e th
at
a certai
n
ty
pe
of s
uch
IS
ca
n
be rep
rese
nted
as
a
giv
e
n
tu
ple
,
IS
=
<
P
′
,
F
′
,
I
C
′
>
(1)
wh
e
re
:
′
-
an
in
form
ation
pr
oduct
that
is
th
e
m
ai
n
value
f
or
th
e
cust
ome
r
an
d
f
or
m
s
the
basis
of
IS
;
′
-
inf
or
m
at
ion
syst
e
m
fu
nctiona
li
ty
,
wh
ic
h
is
rep
rese
nted
by
a
set
of
bu
si
ne
ss
functi
ons
for
processi
ng
in
com
ing
inf
or
m
at
ion
un
ti
l
the
desire
d
com
m
ercial
resu
lt
is
obta
ine
d;
′
–
an
in
form
at
ion
cy
cl
e
tha
t
include
s
a
li
s
t
of
processes
for c
reati
ng and
de
velo
ping a
sta
r
tup
,
as
well
as
it
s p
r
oduct
′
.
Give
n
the
fact
that
each
of
th
ese
syst
e
m
s
na
turall
y
de
velo
ps
over
ti
m
e,
for
ef
fecti
ve
m
anag
em
ent,
it
would
be
nec
essary
to
m
o
nitor
the
sta
te
of
su
c
h
a
s
yst
e
m
du
rin
g
the
processes
of
it
s
creati
on
a
nd
dev
el
op
m
ent unti
l posi
ti
ve
bu
siness
resu
lt
s a
re
ob
ta
ine
d.
Wi
th this i
n
m
ind
,
you can
use t
he
foll
ow
i
ng
,
IS
(
t
)
=
<
P
(
t
)
,
F
(
t
)
,
IC
(
t
)
>
(2)
wh
e
re
:
(
)
–
an
′
c
reati
on
a
nd
de
velo
pm
ent
pro
j
ect
t
hat
has
cl
early
de
fine
d
s
ta
te
s
at
any
giv
en
ti
m
e
t
;
P(
t)
–
pro
j
ect
pro
duct
co
nfi
gu
rati
on
[
26
]
,
w
hich
co
ns
ist
s
of
m
any
el
e
m
ents
with
th
ei
r
own
par
am
eter
s
a
nd
char
act
e
risti
cs
an
d
w
hich
c
an
c
ha
ng
e
at
any
giv
e
n
ti
m
e
t
;
(
)
–
in
f
or
m
at
ion
syst
em
fu
nctio
nalit
y
th
at
pro
vid
es
use
rs
of
the
Saa
S
bu
siness
m
od
el
with
a
certai
n
set
of
f
un
ct
io
ns
fo
r
de
velo
ping
their
ow
n
bu
siness
and
s
uch
a
set
increase
s o
ve
r
t
i
m
e,
that
is
(
)
<
(
+
1
)
;
(
)
–
sta
te
of
t
he
s
ta
ges
of
the
inf
or
m
at
ion
cy
cl
e
that determ
ines the
processes
of m
anag
ing t
he
eff
ect
i
ven
es
s
of cr
eat
io
n an
d dev
el
op
m
ent
′
.
Desp
it
e
t
he
fac
t
that
∈
,
wh
e
re
Т
-
is
the
tim
e
horizo
n
for
m
ana
ging
t
he
c
reati
on
a
nd
dev
el
opm
ent
of a start
up. T
he
set
T
it
sel
f
ca
n be
represe
nted
,
T
=
{
t
0
,
t
1
,
…
,
t
9
,
t
10
,
…
,
t
i
,
…
,
t
n
;
i
=
0
,
N
;
̅
̅
̅
̅
̅
̅
n
∈
N
}
,
(3)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
Ind
on
esi
a
n
J
E
le
c Eng &
Co
m
p
Sci
IS
S
N:
25
02
-
4752
Develo
pm
e
nt
of
a
model fo
r e
valu
ating t
he
e
ff
ect
iv
eness
of
innovativ
e st
art
up
s
b
as
e
d on…
(
Moro
z
ov
Vi
kt
or
)
399
w
h
e
r
e
:
0
-
p
e
r
i
o
d
o
f
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
a
n
d
a
p
p
r
o
v
a
l
o
f
t
h
e
t
e
r
m
s
o
f
r
e
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
f
o
r
c
r
e
a
t
i
n
g
t
h
e
s
y
s
t
e
m
;
1
–
t
h
e
p
e
r
i
o
d
o
f
c
r
e
a
t
i
o
n
o
f
t
h
e
p
r
o
j
e
c
t
c
o
n
c
e
p
t
,
g
o
a
l
s
,
r
e
s
u
l
t
s
a
n
d
p
r
o
d
u
c
t
o
f
t
h
e
s
y
s
t
e
m
;
t
h
e
v
o
l
u
m
e
o
f
i
n
v
e
s
t
m
e
n
t
,
t
h
e
r
a
t
e
o
f
r
e
t
u
r
n
a
n
d
t
h
e
v
i
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
o
f
t
h
e
p
r
o
j
e
c
t
a
r
e
d
e
t
e
r
m
i
n
e
d
;
9
–
s
t
a
g
e
s
o
f
t
h
e
e
i
g
h
t
p
h
a
s
e
s
o
f
t
h
e
s
t
a
n
d
a
r
d
I
T
p
r
o
j
e
c
t
l
i
f
e
c
y
c
l
e
o
f
a
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
;
10
–
r
e
l
e
a
s
e
p
e
r
i
o
d
o
f
t
h
e
f
i
r
s
t
s
y
s
t
e
m
r
e
l
e
a
s
e
;
–
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
p
r
o
d
u
c
t
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
p
e
r
i
o
d
s
;
–
f
i
n
a
l
s
t
a
g
e
o
f
P
r
o
j
e
c
t
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
D
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
;
N
–
t
h
e
t
o
t
a
l
n
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
s
t
a
g
e
s
o
f
t
h
e
m
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
h
o
r
i
z
o
n
f
o
r
t
h
e
c
r
e
a
t
i
o
n
a
n
d
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
o
f
a
s
t
a
r
t
u
p
.
B
a
s
e
d
o
n
t
h
e
p
r
a
c
t
i
c
e
o
f
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
i
n
g
s
u
c
h
p
r
o
j
e
c
t
s
,
t
h
e
p
r
o
j
e
c
t
m
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
a
n
d
s
u
p
p
o
r
t
h
o
r
i
z
o
n
i
s
s
e
l
e
c
t
e
d
f
o
r
t
h
r
e
e
o
r
f
o
u
r
y
e
a
r
s
.
I
n
o
u
r
c
a
s
e
,
N
=
3
6
,
t
h
a
t
i
s
,
t
h
r
e
e
y
e
a
r
s
.
Th
us
,
we
ca
n
c
on
si
der
t
he
m
on
thly
sta
te
s
of
is
(
)
,
durin
g
w
hich
the
ge
ner
al
s
yst
e
m
′
pr
im
e
has
un
c
ha
ng
e
d
Sta
te
s
fr
om
pr
evi
ou
s
versi
ons
or
it
s
new
release
s
(v
e
rsion
s)
are
release
d.
I
n
this
cas
e,
the
inf
or
m
at
ion
cyc
le
at eac
h
sta
ge
can ha
ve
t
he follo
wing
form
(
in
acco
rd
a
nce
w
it
h Fi
gure
1
)
,
IC
(
t
i
)
=
{
∓
∆
P
(
t
i
)
,
∓
∆
F
(
t
i
)
,
C
(
t
i
)
,
I
,
Pr
(
t
i
)
,
R
(
t
i
)
,
Q
1
(
t
i
)
,
Q
2
(
t
i
)
}
(4)
wh
e
re:
∓
∆
P
(
t
i
)
–
rem
ov
e
d
or
a
dd
e
d
com
po
ne
nts
of
a
sta
rtup
pro
je
ct
pr
od
uct;
∓
∆
F
(
t
i
)
–
rem
ov
ed
or
a
dd
e
d
bu
si
ness
f
unct
ion
s
for
syst
em
us
e
rs;
(
)
–
t
he
c
os
t
of
total
c
ost
s
f
or
the
de
vel
op
m
ent
an
d
m
ai
ntenance
of
a
sta
rtup,
t
he
de
velo
pm
ent
of
new
ve
rsi
on
s
of
the
pro
duct
,
an
d
s
o
on;
I
–
total
co
st
of
i
niti
al
inv
est
m
e
nt
in
a
sta
rtup,
incl
uding
ref
i
nan
ci
ng;
(
)
–
c
um
ulativ
e
im
pact
of
r
isk
eve
nts
on
the
pro
j
ect
at
a
giv
e
n
ti
m
e
t
i
;
(
)
–
pro
j
ect
e
d
e
xp
ect
e
d
reven
ue
from
us
in
g
a
sta
rt
up
pro
du
ct
;
1
(
)
–
total
i
m
pact
of
the
i
ntern
al
env
i
ronm
ent
on
pr
oj
ect
par
a
m
et
ers
and
c
ha
racteri
sti
cs
at
a
giv
e
n
ti
m
e
t
i
;
2
(
t
i
)
–
total
im
p
act
of
t
urbu
le
nt
exter
nal envir
onm
ent o
n p
roje
ct
p
aram
et
ers
and cha
racteri
sti
cs at t
i
m
e
.
A
m
on
g
t
he
m
a
i
n
c
om
po
ne
nt
s
of
t
he
i
nf
or
m
a
ti
on
c
y
c
l
e
co
ns
i
de
r
e
d
,
t
he
m
ost
s
i
gn
i
f
i
c
an
t
i
s
t
he
r
i
s
k
f
a
c
t
or
,
w
hi
c
h
s
om
e
ho
w
a
c
c
um
ul
a
te
s
t
he
i
nf
l
ue
nc
e
of
t
he
p
r
oj
e
c
t
e
n
vi
r
o
n
m
e
nt
,
i
t
s
r
e
a
ct
io
n
i
s
a
n
i
nc
r
e
a
s
e
i
n
t
he
c
os
t
of
t
he
pr
o
je
c
t
a
nd
,
of
c
o
ur
s
e
,
i
t
s
a
s
s
e
s
sm
e
nt
(
a
c
ti
on
)
a
f
f
e
c
t
s
t
he
e
f
f
e
c
t
i
ve
ne
s
s
of
t
he
pr
o
je
c
t
.
R
i
s
k
′
(
)
pro
j
ect
de
c
i
s
i
on
s
on
in
vestin
g
in
a
pro
j
ect
at
the
sta
ges
of
it
s
c
reati
on
a
nd
dev
el
opm
ent
in
tu
r
bule
nce
conditi
ons are
a set o
f descri
pt
ion
s
of s
pecific risk
s c
har
act
erized
by th
ree
m
a
in p
a
ram
eter
s
[
27
]
,
R
′
(
t
i
)
=
{
[
s
i
;
p
(
s
i
)
;
Mr
(
s
i
)
]
}
(5)
wh
e
re:
-
risk
sit
uation;
(
)
-
de
gr
ee
of
risk
(a
ssessm
ent
of
t
he
possibil
it
y
of
a
ris
k
sit
uat
ion);
(
)
-
risk
m
easur
e
(
assessm
ent
of
t
he
c
onseq
ue
nc
es
of
a
risk
sit
uation).
F
or
pr
oj
e
c
t
s
with
a
hig
he
r
le
vel
of
risk,
t
he
com
pan
y
sho
ul
d
us
e
a
highe
r
disc
ou
nt
rate
.
At
t
he
sam
e
tim
e,
the
disc
ount
rate
us
e
d
to
acco
unt
f
or
ris
k
dep
e
nds
on the
ty
pe
of
pro
j
ect
,
r
i
=
r
f
+
R
′
(
t
i
)
(6)
w
he
r
e
:
-
risk
-
f
ree r
at
e.
Ther
e
is
a
nee
d
f
or
str
uct
ur
a
l
m
ulti
-
factor
analy
sis
of
va
rio
us
ris
k
fact
or
s
a
nd
costs
for
anti
-
risk
m
easur
es
in
or
der
to
m
ake
op
tim
a
l
m
anag
em
ent
decisi
on
s
in
the
co
ur
se
of
in
vestm
ent
and
pro
j
ect
act
ivit
ie
s
.
Let
'
s
pr
ese
nt
t
he
pr
of
it
V
(
)
pro
j
ect
as
inc
o
m
e
difference
(
)
an
d
the
s
um
of
three
va
lues:
inte
gr
al
pro
j
ect
c
os
t
s
exclu
ding
ris
k
m
anag
e
m
ent
costs
С
(
)
,
integ
ral
pro
j
ect
costs,
ta
king
into
acc
ount
t
he
c
os
ts
of
ris
k
pr
e
ve
ntion
i
n
sta
ti
on
ary
co
ndit
ion
s
1
(
)
,
integ
ral
costs
of
ri
sk
pre
ven
ti
on
in
non
-
sta
ti
onary
conditi
on
s
2
(
)
w
hen
=
0
,
̅
̅
̅
̅
̅
:
R
(
t
i
)
=
R
′
(
t
i
)
+
С
(
t
i
)
+
Q
1
(
t
i
)
+
Q
2
(
t
i
)
V
(
t
i
)
=
P
r
(
t
i
)
−
(
R
(
t
i
)
)
V
(
t
i
)
=
P
r
(
t
i
)
−
(
R
′
(
t
i
)
+
С
(
t
i
)
+
Q
1
(
t
i
)
+
Q
2
(
t
i
)
)
(7)
E
va
l
ua
t
i
ng
the
eff
ect
ive
ness
of
a
pro
j
ect
is
ba
sed
on
plo
tt
in
g
it
s
cash
fl
ow
in
a
tim
e
con
te
xt,
w
hich
determ
ines
the n
eed
f
or d
isc
ountin
g. W
it
h
th
is
in
m
ind
, w
e w
il
l
buil
d
a
m
od
el
f
or
e
valuati
ng
the
ef
fecti
ve
nes
s
of
a
n
inve
stm
ent
pro
j
ect
,
w
hich
m
akes
it
po
s
sible
to
ta
ke
into
acco
un
t
the
structu
re
of
po
s
sible
an
ti
-
risk
m
easur
e
s.
T
he
m
at
he
m
at
ic
a
l exp
ect
at
io
n of a
r
isk
-
a
dju
ste
d
disco
unte
d val
ue
ca
n be
wr
it
te
n
,
M
{
V
(
t
i
)
}
=
−
I
+
∑
p
j
3
j
=
0
∑
1
(
1
+
r
i
)
t
{
Pr
(
t
)
−
[
R
′
(
t
)
+
C
(
t
)
+
Q
1
(
t
)
+
Q
2
(
t
)
]
}
T
t
=
1
(8)
wh
e
re
:
-
di
s
c
o
un
t
rate
(r
at
e);
-
wei
gh
ti
ng
fa
ct
or
s
t
hat
re
flect
the
pro
ba
bili
ty
of
eac
h
of
t
he
th
ree
sce
nari
o
var
ia
nts
(
j
=
1,
2,
3)
-
op
ti
m
i
sti
c,
pessim
isti
c,
an
d
m
os
t
li
ke
ly
,
resp
ect
iv
el
y.
To
c
on
du
ct
a
struct
ur
al
a
na
ly
sis
of
the
c
os
ts
of
anti
-
ris
k
m
easur
es
,
a
n
i
ntegral
risk
cost
optim
iz
ation
m
odel
can
be
us
e
d
,
w
hich
al
lows
you
t
o
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
IS
S
N
:
2502
-
4752
Ind
on
esi
a
n
J
E
le
c Eng &
Co
m
p
Sci,
Vo
l.
23
, N
o.
1
,
Ju
ly
2021
:
3
9
6
-
4
0
4
400
determ
ine the ex
pecte
d
va
lue
o
f
t
he
gro
ss li
ste
d
pro
j
ect
cost
s f
or r
is
k pr
e
ve
ntion
(
Р
GС
),
on the
basis of
wh
ic
h
the expect
e
d v
al
ue
of
pro
j
ect
co
sts
for ri
sk
preve
ntio
n wil
l be
,
PGC
=
∑
p
j
3
j
=
0
∑
1
(
1
+
r
i
)
t
{
[
Q
1
(
t
)
+
Q
2
(
t
)
]
}
T
t
=
1
(9)
3.
SIMULATI
O
N RESULTS
W
he
n
m
a
ki
ng
i
nv
e
s
tm
e
nt
de
c
i
s
i
on
s
,
i
t
i
s
a
dv
i
s
a
bl
e
t
o
us
e
no
t
a
pr
i
or
i
i
nf
or
m
at
i
on
a
bo
ut
t
he
pa
r
a
m
et
e
r
s
t
ha
t
c
ha
r
a
c
t
e
r
i
z
e
t
he
pr
oj
e
c
t
un
de
r
s
t
ud
y
,
t
he
e
nt
er
pr
i
s
e
a
nd
t
he
e
c
on
om
i
c
e
nv
i
r
on
m
e
nt
a
s
a
w
ho
l
e
,
bu
t
t
he
i
r
f
or
e
c
a
s
t
.
Usu
al
ly
,
b
ui
l
di
ng
a
f
or
e
c
a
s
t
of
i
n
no
va
t
iv
e
s
t
a
r
t
up
pr
oj
e
c
t
s
i
nv
ol
ve
s
a
pr
i
o
r
i
m
at
he
m
a
t
i
c
al
m
od
e
l
s
.
H
ow
e
ve
r
,
i
n
t
he
c
o
n
di
t
i
on
s
of
s
t
oc
ha
s
t
i
c
un
c
e
r
t
a
in
t
y
of
t
he
t
ur
b
ul
e
nt
e
nv
i
r
o
nm
e
nt
of
t
he
pr
oj
e
c
t
,
it
i
s
ne
c
e
s
s
a
r
y
t
o
us
e
a
di
f
f
e
r
e
nt
a
p
pr
oa
c
h.
T
he
m
os
t
pr
om
i
si
ng
am
on
g
m
at
he
m
at
i
c
al
m
et
ho
ds
,
w
e
c
on
s
i
de
r
e
d
t
he
m
et
ho
d
of
s
e
l
f
-
or
ga
ni
z
a
t
i
on
,
ne
ur
a
l
ne
t
w
or
k
s
a
nd
pr
e
di
c
t
i
ve
t
r
e
nd
s
of
D
e
M
a
r
c
us
.
T
he
m
e
t
ho
d
of
s
e
l
f
-
o
r
ga
ni
z
i
ng
m
od
el
s
a
ll
ow
s
us
t
o
ob
t
a
i
n
a
m
or
e
a
c
c
ur
at
e
s
ho
r
t
-
t
e
rm
f
or
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
c
om
pa
ri
s
on
w
i
t
h
D
e
M
a
r
c
us
trends
[
28
]
.
T
he
m
et
ho
d
i
s
us
e
d
i
n
c
on
di
t
i
on
s
of
a
na
r
r
ow
e
d
v
o
l
um
e
of
a
pr
i
or
i
i
nf
o
r
m
at
i
on
w
i
t
ho
ut
t
a
ki
ng
i
nt
o
a
c
c
o
u
nt
s
i
gn
i
f
i
c
a
nt
f
a
c
t
or
s
.
H
ow
e
ve
r
,
w
i
t
h
s
ha
r
p
c
ha
ng
e
s
i
n
t
he
pr
e
di
c
t
ed
pr
oc
e
s
s
or
a
n
e
xt
r
em
el
y
sm
al
l
sam
pl
e
of
da
t
a
,
D
e
M
a
r
c
us
tr
e
nd
s
s
ho
w
r
e
s
ul
t
s
of
hi
gh
e
r
e
f
f
i
c
i
e
nc
y
[
29
].
I
n
bo
t
h
c
a
s
e
s
,
a
t
r
a
i
ni
ng
a
nd
ve
r
i
f
i
c
a
t
i
on
s
am
pl
e
is
us
e
d.
T
he
s
t
r
uc
t
ur
e
of
m
od
i
f
i
e
d
D
e
M
a
r
c
us
t
r
e
nd
s
l
oo
ks
l
i
ke
t
hi
s
:
x
n
=
x
n
−
1
+
p
n
−
1
(10)
w
h
e
r
e
:
-
d
y
n
a
m
i
c
o
b
j
e
c
t
s
t
a
t
e
v
a
r
i
a
b
l
e
;
−
1
–
c
o
e
f
f
i
c
i
e
n
t
o
r
f
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
t
h
a
t
c
h
a
r
a
c
t
e
r
i
z
e
s
t
h
e
s
t
e
e
p
n
e
s
s
o
f
t
h
e
t
r
e
n
d
.
U
s
i
n
g
−
1
–
t
h
e
t
r
e
n
d
o
f
c
h
a
n
g
e
s
i
n
t
h
e
s
t
a
t
e
o
f
a
d
y
n
a
m
i
c
o
b
j
e
c
t
,
n
a
m
e
l
y
i
n
o
u
r
c
a
s
e
P
G
C
,
i
s
d
e
t
e
r
m
i
n
e
d
.
U
s
u
a
l
l
y
,
D
e
M
a
r
c
u
s
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
t
r
e
n
d
s
a
r
e
i
m
p
l
e
m
e
n
t
e
d
o
n
s
h
o
r
t
m
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
s
a
m
p
l
e
s
(
2
-
1
0
m
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
s
)
.
T
h
e
r
e
f
o
r
e
,
w
e
u
s
e
d
a
m
o
d
i
f
i
e
d
d
e
m
a
r
c
a
t
i
o
n
t
r
e
n
d
u
s
e
d
f
o
r
a
b
r
o
a
d
e
r
i
n
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
S
a
m
p
l
e
.
i
t
i
s
a
d
v
i
s
a
b
l
e
t
o
u
s
e
m
o
r
e
c
o
m
p
l
e
x
m
e
t
h
o
d
s
f
o
r
c
o
n
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
n
g
m
o
d
e
l
s
t
h
a
t
a
l
l
o
w
y
o
u
t
o
g
e
t
a
m
o
r
e
a
c
c
u
r
a
t
e
p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
v
e
m
o
d
e
l
.
T
h
e
s
e
m
e
t
h
o
d
s
i
n
c
l
u
d
e
,
i
n
p
a
r
t
i
c
u
l
a
r
,
t
h
e
c
l
a
s
s
i
c
a
l
m
e
t
h
o
d
o
f
s
e
l
f
-
o
r
g
a
n
i
z
a
t
i
o
n
a
n
d
n
e
u
r
a
l
n
e
t
w
o
r
k
s
.
W
he
n
b
ui
l
di
ng
a
nd
t
r
a
i
ni
ng
a
ne
u
r
a
l
ne
t
w
o
r
k,
t
he
m
a
i
n
t
hi
ng
i
s
t
o
a
p
pr
o
xi
m
a
te
t
he
f
u
n
c
t
i
on
[
3
0]
.
T
r
a
i
ni
ng
t
a
ke
s
pl
a
c
e
a
c
c
or
di
ng
t
o
t
he
f
ol
l
o
w
i
ng
a
l
g
or
i
t
h
m
:
i
)
t
he
i
ni
t
ia
l
w
e
i
gh
t
s
a
r
e
r
a
n
do
m
ly
s
e
t
;
ii
)
t
he
l
e
a
r
ni
ng
e
r
a
i
s
im
pl
em
e
nt
e
d;
iii
)
t
he
ne
ur
a
l
ne
t
w
or
k
s
hu
t
do
w
n
c
on
di
t
i
on
i
s
c
he
c
ke
d
.
F
or
a
l
l
i
np
ut
ve
c
t
or
s
(
a
gg
r
e
ga
t
e
s
,
ne
ur
a
l
ne
t
w
or
k
t
r
a
i
ni
ng
e
p
oc
hs
a
r
e
pe
r
f
or
m
e
d
i
n
t
ur
n:
i
)
t
he
v
a
l
ue
s
of
t
he
i
n
pu
t
ve
c
t
o
r
a
r
e
pa
s
s
e
d
t
hr
ou
gh
t
he
ne
t
w
or
k,
w
e
ge
t
t
he
r
e
s
ul
t
of
ne
t
w
or
k
op
e
r
a
t
i
on
;
ii
)
t
he
r
e
i
s
a
de
vi
a
t
i
on
of
t
he
ne
t
w
or
k
r
e
s
ul
t
f
r
om
t
he
or
i
gi
na
l
va
lu
e
;
ii
i
)
t
he
w
e
ig
ht
s
of
c
on
ne
c
t
i
on
s
of
ne
t
w
o
r
k
e
l
em
e
nt
s
c
ha
ng
e
f
r
om
t
he
la
s
t
l
a
y
e
r
s
t
o
t
he
f
i
r
s
t
.
T
he
c
ha
ng
e
oc
c
ur
s
a
c
c
or
di
n
g
t
o
t
he
gr
a
di
e
nt
de
s
c
e
nt
m
e
t
ho
d.
A
f
t
e
r
c
om
pl
e
t
i
ng
t
he
t
r
ai
ni
ng
e
r
a
,
t
he
c
on
di
t
i
on
f
or
t
he
e
nd
of
t
he
a
l
go
r
i
t
hm
'
s
op
e
r
a
t
i
on
i
s
c
he
c
ke
d.
M
or
e
pr
e
c
i
s
e
ly
,
ho
w
m
uc
h
t
he
r
e
s
ul
t
s
of
t
he
ne
ur
a
l
n
e
t
w
or
k
di
f
f
e
r
f
r
om
t
he
or
i
gi
na
l
va
l
ue
s
.
T
he
f
i
r
s
t
m
ost
im
po
r
t
a
nt
c
r
it
e
r
i
a
a
r
e
t
he
cr
i
t
e
r
i
a
f
or
e
va
l
ua
t
i
ng
t
he
e
f
f
e
c
t
i
ve
ne
s
s
of
i
nv
e
s
tm
e
nt
pr
o
je
c
t
s
,
w
hi
c
h
a
r
e
un
c
on
di
t
i
on
a
l
r
e
q
ui
r
em
e
nt
s
:
t
he
c
on
d
i
t
i
on
s
of
t
he
i
nv
e
s
t
m
e
nt
s
i
t
ua
t
i
on
,
t
he
v
ol
u
m
e
of
i
nv
e
s
tm
e
nt
s
a
nd
t
he
pa
y
ba
c
k
pe
r
i
od
.
i
n
on
e
of
t
he
c
a
s
e
s
s
t
ud
i
e
d,
f
o
r
e
xa
m
pl
e
,
i
n
c
on
di
t
i
on
s
of
s
t
a
gf
l
a
t
i
on
,
i
nv
e
s
tm
e
nt
pr
oj
e
c
t
s
w
i
t
h
s
ho
r
t
pa
y
ba
c
k
pe
r
i
o
ds
a
r
e
m
a
i
nl
y
us
e
d.
T
he
r
e
f
o
r
e
,
f
or
t
he
I
n
ve
s
t
or
po
r
t
f
ol
i
o,
p
r
oj
e
c
t
s
a
r
e
s
e
l
e
c
t
e
d
ba
s
e
d
o
n
a
di
s
c
o
u
nt
e
d
pa
y
ba
c
k
p
e
r
i
od
(
P
P
)
.
I
t
w
a
s
de
c
i
de
d
t
o
us
e
i
t
f
or
e
va
l
ua
t
i
ng
a
n
i
n
ve
s
tm
e
nt
pr
oj
e
c
t
1
s
e
ve
r
a
l
c
r
i
t
e
r
i
a
i
n
t
he
f
o
r
m
of
a
t
ot
a
l
c
r
i
t
e
r
i
on
a
t
t
he
s
am
e
t
im
e
.
T
he
s
i
gn
i
f
i
c
a
nc
e
of
e
a
c
h
s
pe
c
i
f
i
c
cr
i
t
e
r
i
on
w
he
n
e
va
l
ua
t
i
ng
a
n
i
nv
e
s
tm
e
nt
pr
oj
e
c
t
i
s
de
t
e
rm
i
ne
d
by
i
t
s
w
e
i
gh
t
c
oe
f
f
i
c
i
e
nt
.
_
1
=
1
(
_
)
+
2
(
_
)
+
3
+
4
+
⋯
(
11
)
wh
e
re:
1
-
t
ot
a
l
c
r
i
t
e
r
i
a
f
or
e
va
l
ua
t
i
ng
a
n
i
n
ve
s
tm
e
nt
st
a
r
t
up
p
r
oj
e
c
t
;
a
1
,
a
2
,
a
3
,
a
4
–
w
e
i
gh
t
i
ng
f
a
c
t
or
s
.
We
i
g
ht
i
ng
f
a
c
t
or
s
ha
ve
c
or
r
e
s
po
n
di
ng
di
m
e
ns
i
on
s
.
T
he
i
r
va
l
ue
s
a
r
e
de
t
e
rm
i
ne
d
f
r
om
pr
a
c
t
ic
al
r
e
po
r
t
s
:
t
he
hi
gh
e
r
t
he
c
oe
f
f
i
c
i
e
nt
,
t
he
m
or
e
w
e
i
gh
t
a
pa
r
t
ic
ul
a
r
c
r
i
t
e
r
i
on
i
s
i
nc
l
ud
e
d
i
n
th
e
t
ot
a
l
c
ri
t
e
r
io
n
f
or
e
va
l
ua
t
i
ng
a
n
i
nv
e
s
t
m
e
nt
pr
o
j
e
c
t
.
S
uc
h
a
ba
l
a
nc
e
d
a
s
s
e
s
s
m
e
nt
of
i
n
ve
s
tm
e
nt
pr
o
je
c
t
s
a
l
lo
w
s
y
o
u
t
o
a
na
l
y
z
e
al
l
t
he
pr
o
po
s
e
d
p
r
oj
e
c
t
s
a
t
on
c
e
a
nd
ge
t
a
nu
m
er
i
c
a
l
a
s
s
e
s
sm
e
nt
of
t
he
m
.
I
t
i
s
pr
op
os
e
d
t
o
f
i
r
s
t
s
e
a
r
c
h
f
or
a
n
a
pp
r
o
xi
m
a
te
e
r
r
or
m
i
nim
um
us
i
ng
t
he
s
e
l
f
-
or
ga
ni
z
a
t
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e
r
e
d
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
IS
S
N
:
2502
-
4752
Ind
on
esi
a
n
J
E
le
c Eng &
Co
m
p
Sci,
Vo
l.
23
, N
o.
1
,
Ju
ly
2021
:
3
9
6
-
4
0
4
402
T
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t
ur
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nt
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4.
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r
a
p
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s
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r
a
i
ni
ng
s
a
m
pl
e
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r
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a
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a
l
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s
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nk
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t
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l
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s
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t
s
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m
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l
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s
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nk
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de
d
4.
RESU
LT
A
N
D DIS
CUSSI
ON
T
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uthors
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od
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l
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be
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to
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d
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od
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s
of
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im
pact
on
the
ef
fecti
ven
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s
s
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te
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pro
j
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s
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the
form
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rtup
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si
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m
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ls
based
on
Sa
aS
and
B
2B.
Wh
e
n
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plyi
ng
the
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velo
pe
d
m
a
them
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ti
ca
l
m
od
el
s
in
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i
t
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possi
ble
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influ
e
nce
the
e
ff
ect
ive
ness
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te
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h
sta
rt
up
s
with
a
si
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ed
uct
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in
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m
ent r
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a
re
identifie
d:
The
total
cost
of
init
ia
l
inv
es
t
m
ent
in
a
sta
rtup
,
i
nclu
ding
ref
ina
ncin
g,
ha
s
alm
os
t
no
im
pact
on
the
tot
al
riskin
e
ss
of the
project
;
The
cum
ulati
ve
i
m
pact
on
the
pro
j
ect
of
risk
e
ven
ts
at
a
tim
e
directl
y
flagg
e
d
or
with
an
inc
r
easi
ng
coeffic
ie
nt
(
1.3
-
1.5
)
is
relat
ed
to
the
pro
j
ect
e
d
ex
pected
i
nc
om
e
fr
om
us
ing
the
sta
rt
up
product,
es
pecial
ly
at
the stage
of l
aun
c
hing t
he p
rod
uct to t
he
m
ark
et
;
The
t
otal
im
pa
ct
of
the
t
urb
ulent
exte
rn
al
en
vir
on
m
ent
on
t
he
par
am
et
ers
and
cha
ra
ct
eris
ti
cs
of
t
he
pro
je
ct
reduces
the
te
r
m
of
possible
prof
it
abili
ty
by
up
to
64%
,
pro
vid
e
d
that
the
c
um
ulati
ve
i
m
pact
of
ris
ky
even
ts
on t
he p
roject inc
rease
s;
Break
-
eve
n of
a startu
p pro
j
e
ct
b
ecom
es m
o
re aff
ordab
le
i
f
the
pro
j
ect
'
s w
orkin
g
ca
pital
incr
ea
se
s
.
5.
CONCL
US
I
O
N
To
s
uccess
fu
ll
y
m
ake
a
decisi
on
on
t
he
im
p
lem
entat
ion
of
the
inv
e
stm
ent
process,
it
is
ne
cessary
t
o
hav
e
a
r
e
a
s
o
na
bl
e
fo
recast
of the
dev
el
op
m
ent
of
the
sit
uation
in
the
f
utur
e.
Fo
r
this pur
po
s
e,
it
is
pr
opos
e
d
to
bu
il
d
pr
e
dicti
ve
m
od
el
s
us
in
g
DeMarc
us
tr
ends,
m
od
ifie
d
DeMarcus
tre
nd
s
,
the
sel
f
-
orga
nizat
ion
m
e
thod,
and
t
he
V
olter
ra
ne
ur
al
netw
ork.
A
gen
e
ral
crit
erio
n
f
or
e
valuati
ng
in
ve
st
m
ent
pr
oject
s
is
pro
po
se
d,
wh
i
c
h
include
s
def
in
ing
c
rite
ria
th
at
char
act
erize
the
in
vestm
e
nt
pro
j
ect
it
se
lf
an
d
determ
ine
the
i
nv
est
m
ent
at
tract
iveness
of
t
he
orga
niza
ti
on
.
T
he
a
uthors
of
t
he
stu
dy
of
the
pro
posed
m
od
el
s
an
d
f
or
eca
sti
ng
m
et
ho
ds
hav
e
s
how
n
th
ei
r
eff
ect
ive
ne
ss
and
ca
n
be
use
d
in
pract
ic
e
wh
e
n
co
ns
i
der
i
ng
oth
e
r
sta
rtu
p
pro
j
ect
s
in
va
rio
us
fiel
ds
of tec
hnic
al
acti
vity
.
As
f
urt
her
res
earch
,
it
shou
l
d
be
note
d
t
ha
t
there
is
a
ne
ed
to
i
den
ti
fy
the
proce
sses
i
nvolv
e
d
i
n
creati
ng
c
om
pl
e
x
IT
Product
s,
pro
j
ect
m
anag
em
ent
pr
oce
sses
involvin
g
con
sta
nt
dy
na
m
ic
s
of
chang
es
in
interact
ion wit
h
tu
r
bu
le
nt env
iro
nm
ents an
d t
heir
m
utu
al
in
flue
nce.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
Ind
on
esi
a
n
J
E
le
c Eng &
Co
m
p
Sci
IS
S
N:
25
02
-
4752
Develo
pm
e
nt
of
a
model fo
r e
valu
ating t
he
e
ff
ect
iv
eness
of
innovativ
e st
art
up
s
b
as
e
d on…
(
Moro
z
ov
Vi
kt
or
)
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e
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Softwar
e
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i
n
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Com
pani
es:
A
S
y
stema
ti
c
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ud
y
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og
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p
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By
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St
ep
Guide
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Bui
l
ding
a
Gr
eat
Compan
y
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DIATEINO
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r
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n
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a
n
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S
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M
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u
d
a
m
b
i
,
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h
e
u
n
t
a
p
p
e
d
p
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
o
f
B
2
B
a
d
v
e
r
t
i
s
i
n
g
:
A
l
i
t
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
r
e
v
i
e
w
a
n
d
f
u
t
u
r
e
a
g
e
n
d
a
,
”
I
n
d
u
s
t
r
i
a
l
M
a
r
k
e
t
i
n
g
M
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
, v
o
l
.
8
9
,
p
p
.
5
8
1
-
5
9
3
,
2
0
1
9
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d
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i
:
1
0
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1
0
1
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nte
r
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odeling
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arn
ing
th
e
n
e
ura
l
n
et
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c
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”
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ivi
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ec
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ie
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e
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a
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i
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c
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ur
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i
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ll
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s
to
chur
n
pre
dict
ion:
A
dat
a
m
ini
ng
appr
oac
h
,
”
Ex
pert
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ms
wit
h
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licati
on
s
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ss
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y
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te
ring
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orkow
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c
es,
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ture
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s
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te
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e
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h
y
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a
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ea
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ng
?
,
Mac
h
ine
L
ea
rning
Mast
er
y,
20
17
.
[Onlin
e
].
Avail
ab
le
at:
ht
t
ps://
m
ac
hin
el
e
ar
ningmaster
y
.
co
m
/why
-
on
e
-
hot
-
enc
ode
-
d
ata
-
in
-
m
ac
hine
-
l
ea
rn
in
g/
[24]
IT
Exp
ert
Tr
ai
ning
and
e
xaminat
ion
cente
r,
Proac
t
ive
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t
Man
age
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ent
.
[Onli
ne]
.
Avail
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le:
htt
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ww
w.i
t
ex
per
t.
ru
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MS
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[25]
A.
H.
Alsae
edi
,
A.
H.
Alja
nabi,
M.
E.
Manna
,
and
A.
L.
Albukhnef
i
,
“
A
proa
ctive
m
et
ah
eur
isti
c
m
odel
for
opti
m
iz
ing
weig
hts
of
art
ificial
neur
al
n
et
work,
”
Indone
sian
Jo
urnal
of
El
e
ct
ri
cal
Engi
n
ee
ring
and
Computer
Sci
en
ce
(
IJE
ECS
)
,
vol.
20
,
no
.
2
,
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976
-
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,
20
20
,
doi
:
10
.
1159
1/i
jeec
s.v20
.
i2
.
p
p976
-
984
.
[26]
Projec
t
Mana
g
e
m
ent
Instit
ute,
P
racti
c
e
Standard
for
Pr
oje
ct
Con
fi
guration
Mana
geme
nt
,
Newto
wn
Square
,
USA:
Projec
t
Mana
g
e
m
ent
Instit
u
te
,
2
007,
p
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.
[27]
S
.
Manika
m
,
S
.
Sahibudi
n
and
V
.
Kasina
th
an
,
“
Business
int
ellige
n
ce
addr
essi
ng
service
quali
t
y
for
big
d
ata
ana
l
y
t
ic
s
in
pub
l
ic
sec
tor
,
”
Indon
esian
Journal
of
El
e
ct
rica
l
Enginee
ring
and
Co
mputer
Sci
en
ce
(
IJE
ECS)
,
v
ol
.
1
6
,
no.
1
,
pp
.
491
-
4
99
,
20
19
,
doi
:
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pp491
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.
[28]
T.
R
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De
M
a
rk,
Technical
ana
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si
s
-
new
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n
ce
,
N
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Jerse
y
,
US
A:
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il
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y
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9
4
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
IS
S
N
:
2502
-
4752
Ind
on
esi
a
n
J
E
le
c Eng &
Co
m
p
Sci,
Vo
l.
23
, N
o.
1
,
Ju
ly
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:
3
9
6
-
4
0
4
404
[29]
A.
G.
Iva
khnen
ko
and
Y.
A.
Mulle
r,
Se
lf
-
org
anizati
on
of
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models
in
Russian
Са
моорг
анизация
прог
нозных
мод
елей
,
Ki
ev: T
ec
h
nika
,
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[30]
K.
A.
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pin
and
J.
L.
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ei
ss
,
“
Modific
a
ti
on
of
the
neur
a
l
net
wo
rk
te
chni
qu
e
of
self
-
orga
n
izati
on
,”
in
Aut
omation
and
Mode
rn
Technol
ogi
es
in
R
uss
ia
Автоматиз
ация
и
совр
е
ме
нн
ы
е
тех
нол
ог
ии
,
Mos
cow:
Mashinostroeni
e
,
2007,
p
p
.
8.
BIOGR
AP
HI
ES OF
A
UTH
ORS
Viktor
Morozov
,
Ph.D.
,
profe
ss
or,
Hea
d
of
Dep
t.
of
Technol
og
y
Man
age
m
ent
of
Facul
t
y
of
Inform
at
iona
l
T
ec
hnolog
y
of
Taras
Shevche
nko
Nati
ona
l
Univer
sit
y
of
K
y
iv,
Uk
rai
ne
.
He
has
a
te
a
chi
ng
and
r
ese
arc
h
ex
per
i
en
ce
m
ana
ging
co
m
ple
x
p
roje
ct
s
f
or
m
ore
tha
n
30
y
e
ars.
He
is
the
aut
hor
of
ov
er
240
art
i
cl
es
i
n
var
ious
int
ern
at
ion
al
journals
and
edi
t
ions
of
well
-
known
nat
ion
al
and
inte
rna
ti
on
al
conf
er
enc
es.
Author
of
seve
n
m
onogra
phs
and
six
te
xt
books
in
the
fie
ld
of
informat
ion
te
chno
log
y
a
nd
IT
proje
c
t
m
ana
gement.
Curr
e
nt
rese
ar
ch
int
er
ests
inc
lude
proble
m
s
of
complex
distri
butional
IT
proj
ects
with
using
cl
ou
d
te
chnol
og
y
аn
d
m
et
hods
of
art
if
ic
i
al
intelli
ge
nce
.
Co
-
orga
niz
er
of
five
int
ern
a
ti
ona
l
conf
ere
n
ce
s
on
informati
on
te
chno
log
y
and
i
nte
ra
ct
ion
.
Mem
ber
of
IEEE.
Anna
Kolom
ii
ets
,
Ph.D.,
As
soci
at
e
p
rofe
ss
or
of
Dept.
of
Techno
log
y
Mana
g
ement
of
Facu
l
t
y
of
Inform
at
ion
al T
e
chnol
og
y
of
Ta
ras
Shev
che
n
ko
Nati
on
al Uni
ver
sit
y
of
K
y
iv,
Ukrai
ne.
R
ec
e
ive
d
an
M
Sc
degr
e
e
in
C
yber
netics
from
t
he
Nat
iona
l
T
echnic
a
l
Univer
si
t
y
o
f
Ukra
ine
“
Igor
Sikorsky
K
y
iv
Pol
y
t
ec
hni
c
Instit
ut
e”,
Ukrai
ne
in
2011
.
R
ec
e
ive
d
PhD
degr
ee
in
2015
and
since
2015,
she
is
a
l
ecture
r
of
the
Fa
cul
t
y
of
Inform
at
ion
T
e
chnol
og
y
,
Ta
r
as
Shevche
nko
Nati
ona
l
Univer
sit
y
of
K
y
iv
,
Uk
rai
ne
.
Author
of
m
ore
tha
n
60
s
ci
en
ti
fi
c
and
m
e
thodol
ogical
works
,
inc
ludi
ng
2
m
onogra
phs,
2
te
xtbooks,
a
n
um
ber
of
publi
c
at
ions i
n
dom
est
ic
and
for
ei
gn
scie
ntific
co
ll
e
c
ti
o
ns.
Her
rese
arc
h
intere
sts
i
ncl
ude
proj
ec
t
m
ana
gement,
informati
on
te
chno
logi
es,
bu
siness a
naly
t
ic.
Olga
Mez
ent
sev
a
,
Ph.D.,
As
soci
at
e
profe
ss
or
of
Dept.
of
Techno
log
y
Man
age
m
e
nt
of
Facult
y
of
Inform
at
iona
l
Te
chnol
og
y
of
Ta
ras
Shevch
en
ko
Nati
onal
Uni
ver
sit
y
of
K
y
iv,
Ukrai
ne.
For
succ
esses
in
tea
chi
ng
and
r
ese
a
rch
activit
y
,
th
e
aut
hor
was
awa
rde
d
a
scho
la
r
ship
of
the
Verkhovna
Rad
a
of
Ukrai
ne
an
d
a
schola
rship
of
the
President
of
Ukrai
ne.
Au
thor
of
m
ore
tha
n
50
scie
n
tific
a
nd
m
et
ho
dologi
c
al
works
,
inc
ludi
ng
3
m
onogra
phs,
a
num
ber
of
publi
c
at
ions
in
dom
esti
c
and
fo
rei
gn
sc
ie
nt
ifi
c
col
l
ec
t
ions,
in
cluding
7
in
th
e
s
ci
en
tometri
c
dat
ab
ase
Scopus
.
Olga
activel
y
par
ticipates
in
i
nte
rna
ti
ona
l
con
fer
ences,
th
e
achie
vements
of
which
a
r
e
inde
x
ed
in
th
e
Scopus
and
W
oS
ref
erence
d
ataba
ses
an
d
pla
ns
to
cont
in
ue
th
is
work
fruit
fully
.
In
te
r
m
s
of
publi
ca
ti
o
n
ac
t
ivi
t
y
.
Th
e
priori
t
y
area
of
scie
ntific
r
ese
ar
ch
on
prior
i
t
y
are
as
of
s
cienc
e
and
t
ec
hnolog
y
deve
lopment
is
t
he
dir
ec
t
ion:
inf
orm
at
io
n
and
co
m
m
unic
at
ion
te
chno
logi
es.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.