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[
7
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.
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[
8
]
,
[
9
]
.
T
h
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m
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[
1
0
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[
1
1
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A
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[
1
2
]
.
E
x
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k
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[
1
3
]
.
M
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[
1
4
]
.
T
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m
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[
1
5
]
.
I
n
P
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m
a
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n
g
,
t
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[
1
1
]
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Fo
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n
g
a
n
d
m
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
i
n
t
h
e
s
t
u
d
i
e
d
r
e
g
i
o
n
s
.
2.
M
E
T
H
O
D
T
h
is
s
ec
tio
n
d
etails
th
e
m
e
th
o
d
o
lo
g
ies
em
p
lo
y
ed
in
th
is
s
tu
d
y
,
p
r
o
v
id
in
g
a
co
m
p
r
eh
en
s
iv
e
d
escr
ip
tio
n
o
f
th
e
ex
p
er
im
en
t
al
s
etu
p
,
d
ata
co
llectio
n
,
a
n
d
t
h
e
th
eo
r
etica
l
b
asis
o
f
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
tech
n
iq
u
es
u
s
ed
.
T
h
is
r
e
s
e
a
r
c
h
co
m
p
ar
es
th
e
p
er
f
o
r
m
a
n
ce
o
f
DE
S
an
d
DM
A
tech
n
iq
u
es
in
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
b
ee
f
s
to
ck
r
eq
u
ir
em
e
n
ts
.
T
h
e
s
tu
d
y
e
v
alu
ates th
ese
m
eth
o
d
s
u
s
in
g
th
e
MA
D,
MSE
,
an
d
MA
PE
m
etr
ics.
2
.
1
.
Da
t
a
s
et
d
escript
io
n
T
h
e
d
ataset
u
s
ed
in
th
is
s
tu
d
y
co
m
p
r
is
es
u
n
iv
ar
iate
tim
e
s
er
i
es
d
ata
r
ep
r
esen
tin
g
th
e
to
tal
m
ea
t
s
to
ck
r
eq
u
ir
em
e
n
ts
p
er
d
is
tr
ict
in
Pem
alan
g
,
m
ea
s
u
r
ed
in
to
n
s
p
e
r
m
o
n
t
h
.
T
h
e
d
ata
s
p
a
n
s
s
ix
y
ea
r
s
,
f
r
o
m
J
an
u
ar
y
2
0
1
5
to
Dec
em
b
e
r
2
0
2
0
,
p
r
o
v
id
in
g
7
2
m
o
n
th
ly
r
ec
o
r
d
s
.
T
h
ese
r
ec
o
r
d
s
ar
e
d
iv
id
ed
in
to
tr
ain
in
g
an
d
test
d
atasets
,
with
6
4
r
ec
o
r
d
s
u
s
ed
f
o
r
tr
ain
in
g
an
d
8
f
o
r
test
in
g
,
f
o
llo
win
g
a
9
0
%:1
0
%
r
atio
.
T
h
e
tr
ain
in
g
s
et
is
u
tili
ze
d
to
d
ev
elo
p
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
els,
wh
ile
th
e
test
s
e
t
is
em
p
lo
y
ed
to
ev
alu
ate
th
eir
p
er
f
o
r
m
a
n
ce
.
T
h
e
d
ataset
in
clu
d
es
m
o
n
th
ly
m
ea
t
s
to
ck
r
eq
u
ir
e
m
en
ts
f
o
r
f
o
u
r
d
is
tr
icts
:
Pem
alan
g
,
Petar
u
k
an
,
Am
p
elg
ad
in
g
,
an
d
C
o
m
al,
as
s
h
o
wn
i
n
F
i
g
u
r
e
1
.
T
em
p
o
r
al
p
atter
n
s
in
th
e
d
ataset
r
ef
lect
s
ea
s
o
n
al
v
a
r
iatio
n
s
in
f
lu
en
ce
d
b
y
n
atu
r
al
an
d
g
e
o
p
o
liti
ca
l
f
ac
to
r
s
,
s
u
ch
as
th
e
r
ain
y
s
ea
s
o
n
a
n
d
f
esti
v
e
p
er
i
o
d
s
.
As
illu
s
tr
ated
in
Fig
u
r
e
1
,
th
e
m
o
n
th
ly
m
ea
t
s
to
ck
d
em
an
d
in
Pem
alan
g
s
h
o
ws
s
ig
n
i
f
ican
t
s
ea
s
o
n
al
v
a
r
iatio
n
s
an
d
t
r
en
d
s
.
T
h
is
v
is
u
al
r
ep
r
esen
tatio
n
aid
s
in
u
n
d
er
s
tan
d
in
g
th
e
u
n
d
er
ly
in
g
d
at
a
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
an
d
in
f
o
r
m
s
th
e
s
elec
tio
n
o
f
ap
p
r
o
p
r
iate
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
el
s
.
2
.
2
.
T
heo
re
t
ica
l ba
s
is
o
f
f
o
r
ec
a
s
t
ing
m
et
ho
ds
Fo
r
ec
asti
n
g
tech
n
iq
u
es
ar
e
ess
en
tial
f
o
r
p
r
ed
ictin
g
f
u
tu
r
e
v
al
u
es
b
ased
o
n
h
is
to
r
ical
d
ata.
T
h
is
s
tu
d
y
co
m
p
ar
es
two
p
r
im
ar
y
m
eth
o
d
s
:
DE
S
an
d
DM
A
[
1
6
]
,
[
1
7
]
.
DE
S
is
an
ex
ten
s
io
n
o
f
SES
d
esig
n
ed
to
a
d
d
r
ess
lin
ea
r
tr
en
d
s
in
t
h
e
d
ata
[
1
8
]
.
I
t
in
v
o
l
v
es
two
s
tag
es
o
f
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
:
f
ir
s
t,
ap
p
ly
i
n
g
ex
p
o
n
en
tial
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
t
o
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
d
o
n
esian
J
E
lec
E
n
g
&
C
o
m
p
Sci
I
SS
N:
2
5
0
2
-
4
7
52
S
ea
s
o
n
a
l m
e
a
t sto
ck
d
ema
n
d
u
s
ed
co
mp
a
r
is
o
n
o
f
p
erfo
r
ma
n
ce
s
mo
o
th
in
g
-
a
ve
r
a
g
e
fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
(
Tu
n
d
o
)
627
th
e
r
aw
d
ata
to
g
en
e
r
ate
a
s
m
o
o
th
ed
v
alu
e,
an
d
s
ec
o
n
d
,
ap
p
ly
in
g
ex
p
o
n
en
tial
s
m
o
o
t
h
in
g
to
t
h
e
s
m
o
o
th
e
d
v
alu
es o
b
tain
ed
i
n
th
e
f
ir
s
t stag
e.
T
h
e
DE
S m
eth
o
d
is
d
ef
i
n
e
d
b
y
ca
lc
u
latin
g
(
1
)
-
(
8
)
.
T
h
e
f
ir
s
t
s
m
o
o
th
i
n
g
v
alu
e
is
c
alcu
lated
b
y
(
1
)
.
′
is
th
e
s
m
o
o
t
h
ed
v
alu
e
at
tim
e
t
,
α
is
th
e
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
p
ar
am
eter
(
w
h
er
e
0
<
<
10
)
,
is
th
e
ac
tu
al
v
alu
e
at
tim
e
t
,
an
d
−
1
′
is
th
e
s
m
o
o
th
ed
v
alu
e
at
tim
e
−
1
.
T
h
is
eq
u
atio
n
ap
p
lies
ex
p
o
n
e
n
tial
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
to
th
e
r
aw
d
ata
to
g
e
n
er
ate
a
s
m
o
o
th
ed
v
a
lu
e.
Nex
t,
th
e
s
ec
o
n
d
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
v
alu
e
is
ca
lcu
lated
b
y
(
2
)
.
′′
is
th
e
twice
s
m
o
o
th
ed
v
al
u
e
at
tim
e
t
an
d
−
1
′
.
T
h
is
s
ec
o
n
d
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
s
tag
e
f
u
r
th
er
r
ef
in
e
s
th
e
s
m
o
o
th
ed
v
alu
es to
ca
p
tu
r
e
tr
en
d
s
m
o
r
e
ac
cu
r
ately
.
′
=
α
X
+
(
1
−
α
)
−
1
′
(
1
)
′′
=
α
′
+
(
1
−
α
)
−
1
′′
(
2
)
T
h
e
co
n
s
tan
t
v
alu
e
(
)
is
d
eter
m
in
ed
as
(
3
)
b
y
ad
ju
s
tin
g
th
e
s
m
o
o
th
ed
v
alu
es
o
b
tai
n
ed
f
r
o
m
th
e
f
ir
s
t
an
d
s
ec
o
n
d
s
tag
es
,
p
r
o
v
i
d
in
g
a
b
aselin
e
f
o
r
th
e
f
o
r
ec
a
s
t.
Ad
d
itio
n
ally
,
th
e
s
lo
p
e
v
al
u
e
(
)
is
ca
lcu
lated
as
(
3
)
b
y
t
h
e
d
if
f
e
r
en
ce
b
etw
ee
n
th
e
f
ir
s
t
an
d
s
ec
o
n
d
s
m
o
o
th
ed
v
alu
es,
s
ca
led
b
y
th
e
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
p
ar
am
eter
.
T
h
is
v
alu
e
r
ep
r
esen
ts
th
e
tr
en
d
co
m
p
o
n
en
t o
f
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast.
b
=
1
−
(
′
−
′′
)
(
3
)
T
h
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
ex
te
n
d
s
th
e
S
MA
b
y
in
c
o
r
p
o
r
atin
g
m
u
lt
ip
le
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
s
tag
es
to
b
ett
er
ca
p
tu
r
e
tr
en
d
s
an
d
s
ea
s
o
n
ality
[
1
9
]
.
T
h
e
f
ir
s
t
m
o
v
in
g
av
er
ag
e
is
ca
lcu
lated
b
y
(
4
)
.
′
is
th
e
f
ir
s
t
m
o
v
in
g
av
er
ag
e
at
tim
e
t
,
an
d
n
is
th
e
n
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
p
er
i
o
d
s
in
th
e
m
o
v
in
g
a
v
e
r
ag
e.
T
h
is
m
et
h
o
d
av
er
ag
es
t
h
e
v
alu
es
o
v
er
n
n
n
p
er
io
d
s
to
s
m
o
o
th
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
f
lu
ctu
atio
n
s
an
d
h
ig
h
lig
h
t
lo
n
g
er
-
ter
m
tr
en
d
s
.
Ad
d
itio
n
ally
,
th
e
s
ec
o
n
d
m
o
v
i
n
g
av
er
ag
e
is
ca
lcu
lated
b
y
(
5
)
.
′′
is
th
e
s
ec
o
n
d
m
o
v
i
n
g
a
v
er
ag
e
at
tim
e
t
,
o
b
tain
ed
b
y
a
v
er
ag
in
g
th
e
f
i
r
s
t
m
o
v
in
g
av
er
a
g
es
o
v
e
r
n
p
er
io
d
s
.
T
h
is
s
ec
o
n
d
av
er
a
g
in
g
s
tag
e
f
u
r
th
er
s
m
o
o
th
s
th
e
d
ata,
m
ak
in
g
t
h
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
m
o
r
e
r
o
b
u
s
t to
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
v
a
r
i
ab
ilit
y
.
′
=
+
−
1
+
−
2
+
⋯
+
−
+
1
(
4
)
′′
=
′
+
′
−
1
+
′
−
2
+
⋯
+
′
−
+
1
(
5
)
T
h
e
co
n
s
tan
t
v
alu
e
is
d
eter
m
in
ed
b
y
(
6
)
.
T
h
is
f
o
r
m
u
la
ca
lcu
lates
th
e
co
n
s
tan
t
v
alu
e
(
)
f
o
r
th
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
,
s
im
ilar
to
th
e
DE
S
m
eth
o
d
,
b
y
ad
j
u
s
tin
g
th
e
f
ir
s
t
an
d
s
ec
o
n
d
m
o
v
i
n
g
av
er
ag
es.
Mo
v
in
g
to
s
lo
p
e
v
alu
e
(
)
,
it is
d
er
iv
ed
f
r
o
m
th
e
d
if
f
er
e
n
ce
b
etwe
en
th
e
f
ir
s
t a
n
d
s
ec
o
n
d
m
o
v
in
g
a
v
er
ag
es,
s
ca
led
b
y
t
h
e
f
ac
to
r
2
−
1
,
r
e
p
r
esen
tin
g
th
e
tr
en
d
co
m
p
o
n
en
t o
f
t
h
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
in
t
h
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
an
d
is
ca
lcu
l
ated
b
y
(
7
)
.
T
h
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
b
en
e
f
its
d
atasets
with
v
ital
s
ea
s
o
n
al
co
m
p
o
n
en
ts
,
allo
win
g
f
o
r
m
o
r
e
ac
cu
r
ate
lo
n
g
-
ter
m
f
o
r
ec
asts
.
=
2
′
−
′′
(6
)
=
2
−
1
(
′
−
′′
)
(7
)
I
n
th
is
s
tu
d
y
,
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
f
u
t
u
r
e
m
ea
t
s
to
ck
r
e
q
u
ir
em
e
n
ts
was
co
n
d
u
cted
u
s
in
g
two
p
r
im
a
r
y
m
eth
o
d
s
:
DE
S
an
d
DM
A.
T
h
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
f
o
r
f
u
tu
r
e
p
e
r
io
d
s
r
elies
o
n
t
h
ese
m
eth
o
d
s
'
ca
lcu
lated
co
n
s
tan
t
(
)
an
d
s
lo
p
e
(
)
v
alu
es.
T
h
e
f
o
r
ec
as
t
v
alu
e
(
+
)
f
o
r
a
f
u
t
u
r
e
p
er
i
o
d
m
m
m
is
g
iv
en
b
y
(
8
)
,
w
h
er
e
m
r
e
p
r
esen
ts
th
e
n
u
m
b
er
o
f
s
u
b
s
eq
u
e
n
t
p
e
r
io
d
s
to
b
e
p
r
ed
icted
.
T
h
is
f
o
r
m
u
la
co
m
b
i
n
es
th
e
c
o
n
s
tan
t
a
n
d
s
lo
p
e
v
alu
es
to
p
r
o
ject
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast in
to
th
e
f
u
tu
r
e.
+
=
+
(8
)
T
h
e
MA
PE
was
u
s
ed
to
e
v
alu
ate
th
e
ac
c
u
r
ac
y
o
f
th
ese
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
els.
MA
PE
m
ea
s
u
r
es
f
o
r
ec
ast
ac
cu
r
ac
y
as
a
p
e
r
ce
n
tag
e
[
2
0
]
,
in
d
icatin
g
th
e
p
r
o
p
o
r
tio
n
ate
er
r
o
r
o
f
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
r
elativ
e
t
o
th
e
ac
tu
al
v
al
u
es
[
2
1
]
.
MA
PE
is
ca
lcu
lated
u
s
in
g
(
9
)
.
=
1
∑
|
−
|
=
1
100%
(9
)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
5
0
2
-
4
7
52
In
d
o
n
esian
J
E
lec
E
n
g
&
C
o
m
p
Sci
,
Vo
l.
3
7
,
No
.
1
,
J
an
u
ar
y
20
2
5
:
62
5
-
63
3
628
Her
e,
n
r
ep
r
esen
ts
th
e
n
u
m
b
er
o
f
test
in
g
d
ata
p
er
io
d
s
,
is
th
e
ac
tu
al
v
alu
e
in
p
er
io
d
ttt,
an
d
is
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
v
alu
e
in
p
er
io
d
t
.
MA
PE
p
r
o
v
i
d
es a
p
er
ce
n
tag
e
-
b
ased
m
ea
s
u
r
e
o
f
f
o
r
ec
ast ac
cu
r
ac
y
,
with
l
o
wer
MA
PE
v
alu
es
in
d
icatin
g
b
etter
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
p
er
f
o
r
m
a
n
ce
.
T
h
e
MA
PE
s
co
r
e
ca
teg
o
r
ies
ar
e
s
h
o
wn
i
n
T
ab
l
e
1
.
T
h
e
tec
h
n
iq
u
e
is
co
n
s
id
er
ed
ex
ce
llen
t
wh
en
th
e
MA
PE
v
alu
e
is
b
elo
w
1
0
%,
with
th
e
m
eth
o
d
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
in
g
b
etter
as
t
h
e
MA
PE
v
alu
e
d
ec
r
ea
s
es
[
2
2
]
.
T
h
is
ca
teg
o
r
izatio
n
h
elp
s
in
in
ter
p
r
etin
g
th
e
ef
f
ec
tiv
en
es
s
o
f
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
els,
wh
er
e
a
l
o
wer
MA
PE
v
alu
e
co
r
r
esp
o
n
d
s
to
h
ig
h
er
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
ac
cu
r
ac
y
.
Fig
u
r
e
1
.
Vis
u
aliza
tio
n
o
f
d
ata
o
n
d
e
m
an
d
f
o
r
m
ea
t sto
ck
s
in
P
em
alan
g
T
ab
le
1
.
MA
PE
v
alu
e
le
v
el
ca
teg
o
r
ies
M
A
P
E
v
a
l
u
e
C
a
t
e
g
o
r
i
e
s
<
1
0
%
Ex
c
e
l
l
e
n
t
1
0
%
-
2
0
%
G
o
o
d
2
0
%
-
5
0
%
En
o
u
g
h
>
5
0
%
P
o
o
r
2
.
3
.
P
r
o
po
s
ed
m
et
ho
ds
T
h
e
p
r
o
p
o
s
ed
m
eth
o
d
s
f
o
c
u
s
o
n
d
ev
el
o
p
in
g
an
d
e
v
alu
atin
g
ac
cu
r
ate
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
els
f
o
r
m
ea
t
s
to
ck
r
eq
u
ir
em
en
ts
u
s
in
g
DE
S
an
d
DM
A.
T
h
e
p
r
o
ce
s
s
b
eg
in
s
with
d
ata
p
r
ep
ar
atio
n
,
wh
er
e
th
e
d
ataset,
co
n
s
is
tin
g
o
f
m
o
n
th
l
y
m
ea
t
s
t
o
ck
d
ata
f
r
o
m
f
o
u
r
d
is
tr
icts
in
Pem
alan
g
o
v
er
s
ix
y
ea
r
s
,
is
clea
n
ed
t
o
h
a
n
d
le
m
is
s
in
g
v
alu
es
an
d
o
u
tlier
s
.
T
h
e
d
ata
is
th
en
p
ar
titi
o
n
ed
in
t
o
tr
ain
in
g
(
9
0
%)
a
n
d
test
(
1
0
%)
s
ets
an
d
d
i
v
id
ed
b
ased
o
n
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
s
to
f
ac
ilit
ate
r
o
b
u
s
t a
n
aly
s
is
.
Fig
u
r
e
2
illu
s
tr
ates
th
e
s
y
s
t
em
atic
p
r
o
ce
s
s
e
m
p
lo
y
ed
to
co
m
p
ar
e
DE
S
an
d
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
s
to
m
in
im
ize
th
e
MA
PE.
T
h
e
p
r
o
ce
d
u
r
e
b
e
g
in
s
b
y
in
itializin
g
k
ey
p
ar
am
ete
r
s
,
in
clu
d
in
g
th
e
alp
h
a
(
α
)
f
o
r
DE
S,
th
e
o
r
d
er
(
n
)
f
o
r
DM
A,
a
n
d
th
e
n
u
m
b
er
o
f
iter
atio
n
s
(
i
)
.
T
h
e
d
ataset
is
th
en
p
ar
titi
o
n
ed
t
o
cr
ea
te
a
s
tr
u
ctu
r
ed
f
o
u
n
d
atio
n
f
o
r
th
e
a
n
aly
s
is
.
T
h
e
DE
S
m
eth
o
d
in
v
o
lv
es
ca
lcu
latin
g
th
e
f
ir
s
t
an
d
s
ec
o
n
d
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
v
alu
es
u
s
in
g
th
e
s
elec
ted
α
,
f
o
llo
wed
b
y
d
eter
m
in
i
n
g
th
e
c
o
n
s
tan
t
(
)
an
d
s
lo
p
e
(
)
v
al
u
es
th
at
f
o
r
m
th
e
b
asis
f
o
r
f
u
tu
r
e
f
o
r
ec
asts
.
T
h
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
s
im
ilar
ly
ca
lcu
lates
th
e
f
ir
s
t
an
d
s
ec
o
n
d
m
o
v
in
g
av
e
r
ag
es,
wh
ich
a
r
e
th
e
n
u
s
ed
to
d
er
iv
e
th
e
co
r
r
esp
o
n
d
in
g
c
o
n
s
tan
t
an
d
s
lo
p
e
v
alu
es [
2
3
]
.
Fo
r
ec
asts
f
o
r
f
u
tu
r
e
p
er
io
d
s
(
F
_
(
t+m
)
)
ar
e
g
en
er
ate
d
u
s
in
g
th
e
(
8
)
,
wh
e
r
e
m
r
e
p
r
esen
ts
th
e
n
u
m
b
er
o
f
p
er
io
d
s
in
to
th
e
f
u
tu
r
e
b
ein
g
f
o
r
ec
asted
.
T
h
e
ac
c
u
r
ac
y
o
f
t
h
ese
f
o
r
ec
asts
is
ev
alu
ated
u
s
in
g
MA
PE,
wh
ich
m
ea
s
u
r
es
th
e
p
er
ce
n
tag
e
er
r
o
r
r
elativ
e
t
o
ac
tu
al
v
alu
es
[
2
4
]
,
[
2
5
]
.
T
h
e
f
l
o
wch
ar
t
in
Fi
g
u
r
e
2
o
u
tlin
es
two
cr
itical
s
ce
n
ar
io
s
:
i)
Par
am
eter
o
p
tim
izatio
n
:
v
ar
io
u
s
p
ar
am
eter
s
with
in
DE
S
a
n
d
DM
A
ar
e
test
ed
to
i
d
en
tify
th
e
co
n
f
ig
u
r
atio
n
th
at
y
ield
s
th
e
lo
west M
APE
v
alu
e.
ii)
T
em
p
o
r
al
s
tab
ilit
y
:
MA
PE
v
al
u
es
f
r
o
m
b
o
th
m
eth
o
d
s
ar
e
co
m
p
ar
ed
ac
r
o
s
s
d
if
f
er
en
t
s
ea
s
o
n
s
to
ass
e
s
s
th
e
im
p
ac
t o
f
tim
e
o
n
f
o
r
ec
ast ac
cu
r
ac
y
.
I
ter
ativ
ely
ad
ju
s
ts
p
ar
a
m
eter
s
,
ca
lcu
latin
g
MA
PE
af
te
r
ea
ch
iter
atio
n
t
o
en
s
u
r
e
th
e
b
e
s
t
f
o
r
ec
ast
ac
cu
r
ac
y
.
A
MA
PE
v
alu
e
b
elo
w
1
0
%
is
co
n
s
id
er
e
d
ex
ce
llen
t
,
an
d
th
e
m
et
h
o
d
p
r
o
d
u
cin
g
th
e
lo
west
MA
PE
is
d
ee
m
ed
o
p
tim
al
f
o
r
f
u
tu
r
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
an
d
an
aly
s
is
.
T
h
is
co
n
cise
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
en
s
u
r
es
th
at
th
e
m
o
s
t
r
eliab
le
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
el
is
s
elec
ted
,
p
r
o
v
id
i
n
g
a
s
o
lid
b
asis
f
o
r
d
ec
is
io
n
-
m
ak
in
g
i
n
m
ea
t sto
ck
m
an
ag
em
en
t.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
d
o
n
esian
J
E
lec
E
n
g
&
C
o
m
p
Sci
I
SS
N:
2
5
0
2
-
4
7
52
S
ea
s
o
n
a
l m
e
a
t sto
ck
d
ema
n
d
u
s
ed
co
mp
a
r
is
o
n
o
f
p
erfo
r
ma
n
ce
s
mo
o
th
in
g
-
a
ve
r
a
g
e
fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
(
Tu
n
d
o
)
629
Fig
u
r
e
2
.
C
o
m
p
a
r
is
o
n
s
tep
s
o
f
th
e
p
r
o
p
o
s
ed
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
et
h
o
d
3.
RE
SU
L
T
S AN
D
D
I
SCU
SS
I
O
N
T
h
is
s
ec
tio
n
p
r
esen
ts
a
d
eta
iled
an
aly
s
is
o
f
th
e
ex
p
er
im
en
tal
r
esu
lts
o
b
tain
ed
f
r
o
m
th
e
ap
p
licatio
n
o
f
DE
S
an
d
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
s
,
co
m
p
ar
ed
with
SE
an
d
SMA
m
eth
o
d
s
.
T
h
e
p
r
im
ar
y
o
b
jectiv
e
i
s
id
en
tify
in
g
wh
ic
h
m
eth
o
d
y
ield
s
th
e
lo
west
MA
PE,
th
er
eb
y
in
d
icatin
g
s
u
p
er
io
r
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
ac
c
u
r
ac
y
f
o
r
m
e
at
s
to
ck
d
em
an
d
in
Pem
alan
g
.
3
.
1
.
DE
S v
s
.
SE
S:
a
lph
a
pa
ra
m
et
er
i
m
pa
ct
T
h
e
DE
S
p
r
o
ce
s
s
b
eg
in
s
wit
h
th
e
i
n
itial
ap
p
licatio
n
o
f
th
e
alp
h
a
p
ar
am
eter
(
α
)
o
b
tain
e
d
f
r
o
m
th
e
SES
m
eth
o
d
.
T
h
e
ex
p
e
r
im
en
t
in
v
o
lv
es
v
ar
y
in
g
t
h
e
alp
h
a
p
ar
am
eter
b
etwe
en
0
.
1
a
n
d
0
.
9
to
ex
p
lo
r
e
its
im
p
ac
t
o
n
th
e
s
lo
p
e
co
ef
f
icien
t
(
)
)
,
wh
ich
is
in
teg
r
al
to
co
n
s
tr
u
ctin
g
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
f
u
n
ctio
n
(
)
.
B
y
ca
lcu
latin
g
th
e
p
er
ce
n
tag
e
er
r
o
r
(
PE)
a
n
d
M
APE
f
o
r
ea
ch
alp
h
a
v
al
u
e,
th
e
g
o
al
is
to
d
eter
m
in
e
wh
ic
h
p
ar
am
eter
s
ettin
g
p
r
o
v
id
es th
e
m
o
s
t a
cc
u
r
ate
f
o
r
ec
ast.
T
h
e
r
esu
lts
f
r
o
m
th
is
co
m
p
ar
a
tiv
e
an
aly
s
is
,
p
r
esen
ted
in
T
ab
le
2
,
in
d
icate
th
at
t
h
e
SES
m
et
h
o
d
,
with
an
alp
h
a
v
al
u
e
o
f
0
.
9
,
ac
h
ie
v
e
d
a
MA
PE
o
f
6
.
5
2
%.
I
n
co
n
tr
ast,
with
an
o
p
tim
al
alp
h
a
v
al
u
e
o
f
0
.
4
,
th
e
DE
S
m
eth
o
d
p
r
o
d
u
ce
d
a
MA
PE
o
f
8
.
2
1
%.
T
h
ese
f
in
d
in
g
s
ar
e
v
is
u
ally
r
ep
r
esen
ted
in
Fig
u
r
e
3
wh
ich
is
p
r
ec
is
ely
in
f
ig
u
r
e
3
(
a)
,
wh
er
e
th
e
MA
PE
v
alu
es
co
r
r
esp
o
n
d
i
n
g
to
ea
c
h
alp
h
a
p
ar
am
eter
ar
e
p
l
o
tted
f
o
r
b
o
th
SES
an
d
DE
S.
T
h
e
v
is
u
al
co
m
p
ar
is
o
n
d
em
o
n
s
tr
ates
th
at
SES
co
n
s
is
t
en
tly
o
u
tp
er
f
o
r
m
s
DE
S
ac
r
o
s
s
th
e
r
an
g
e
o
f
test
ed
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
5
0
2
-
4
7
52
In
d
o
n
esian
J
E
lec
E
n
g
&
C
o
m
p
Sci
,
Vo
l.
3
7
,
No
.
1
,
J
an
u
ar
y
20
2
5
:
62
5
-
63
3
630
alp
h
a
v
alu
es.
Sp
ec
if
ically
,
th
e
SES
m
eth
o
d
ex
h
ib
its
lo
wer
MA
PE
v
alu
es
a
s
th
e
alp
h
a
p
ar
am
eter
in
cr
ea
s
es,
s
u
g
g
esti
n
g
th
at
SES
is
m
o
r
e
r
esp
o
n
s
iv
e
to
r
ec
en
t
d
ata
tr
en
d
s
,
wh
ich
e
n
h
an
ce
s
its
p
r
ed
ictiv
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
.
C
o
n
v
er
s
ely
,
th
e
DE
S
m
eth
o
d
,
wh
ich
in
v
o
lv
es
an
ad
d
itio
n
al
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
s
tep
,
ap
p
ea
r
s
less
s
tab
le,
with
MA
PE
v
alu
es
f
lu
ctu
atin
g
s
ig
n
if
ican
tl
y
d
ep
en
d
i
n
g
o
n
th
e
alp
h
a
s
ettin
g
.
T
h
is
v
ar
iab
ilit
y
in
d
icate
s
th
at
DE
S
m
ay
b
e
m
o
r
e
s
en
s
itiv
e
to
th
e
ch
o
s
en
p
ar
am
eter
s
,
wh
ich
co
u
ld
lim
it
its
r
eliab
ilit
y
in
s
p
ec
if
ic
f
o
r
ec
as
tin
g
co
n
tex
ts
.
T
ab
le
2
.
MA
PE
c
o
m
p
ar
is
o
n
o
f
SES a
n
d
DE
S
b
ased
o
n
v
ar
y
i
n
g
alp
h
a
p
ar
am
eter
s
P
a
r
a
me
t
e
r
S
ES
D
ES
A
l
p
h
a
at
bt
|
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E|
at
bt
|
P
E|
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3
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0
.
3
0
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0
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3
5
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3
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1
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5
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2
0
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0
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0
.
8
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5
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5
3
3
0
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2
0
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0
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0
1
3
5
.
6
0
0
3
9
-
1
.
3
9
8
3
5
0
.
0
4
9
9
4
0
.
9
3
5
.
7
3
7
6
6
0
.
1
0
.
0
0
4
5
0
3
6
.
1
5
0
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1
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9
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0
0
6
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0
5
6
9
4
M
A
P
E
a
l
p
h
a
=
0
.
9
6
.
5
2
%
M
A
P
E
a
l
p
h
a
=
0
.
4
8
.
2
1
%
3
.
2
.
DM
A
v
s
.
SM
A:
t
im
e
o
r
der
pa
ra
m
et
er
a
na
ly
s
is
T
h
e
ex
p
er
im
e
n
t
ad
ju
s
ted
th
e
tim
e
o
r
d
er
p
ar
am
ete
r
f
r
o
m
2
to
9
to
co
m
p
a
r
e
th
e
DM
A
an
d
SMA
m
eth
o
d
s
.
T
h
e
o
b
jectiv
e
was
t
o
d
eter
m
in
e
t
h
e
tim
e
o
r
d
er
y
i
eld
in
g
th
e
lo
west
MA
PE
an
d
o
f
f
er
in
g
th
e
m
o
s
t
ac
cu
r
ate
f
o
r
ec
ast.
As
s
h
o
wn
i
n
T
ab
le
3
,
wh
en
ap
p
lied
with
a
tim
e
o
r
d
er
o
f
2
,
th
e
SMA
m
eth
o
d
r
esu
lted
in
an
MA
PE
o
f
6
.
1
2
3
%.
T
h
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
,
o
p
tim
ized
at
a
tim
e
o
r
d
er
o
f
4
,
ac
h
iev
ed
a
s
ig
n
i
f
ican
tly
lo
wer
MA
PE
o
f
5
.
9
9
3
%.
T
h
ese
f
in
d
in
g
s
ar
e
v
is
u
ally
r
ep
r
esen
ted
in
Fig
u
r
e
3
wh
ic
h
is
p
r
ec
is
ely
in
th
e
r
ep
r
esen
tatio
n
o
f
Fig
u
r
e
3
(
b
)
g
r
ap
h
ically
illu
s
tr
ates
th
ese
r
esu
lt
s
,
h
ig
h
lig
h
tin
g
th
e
s
u
p
er
io
r
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
o
f
th
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
o
v
er
SMA
as
th
e
tim
e
o
r
d
er
i
n
cr
ea
s
es.
T
h
e
d
ata
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at
th
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
'
s
en
h
an
ce
d
ab
ilit
y
to
m
o
d
el
cy
clica
l
p
atter
n
s
an
d
s
ea
s
o
n
al
v
ar
iatio
n
s
in
h
er
en
t
i
n
th
e
d
ataset
is
lik
ely
r
esp
o
n
s
ib
le
f
o
r
its
im
p
r
o
v
e
d
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
a
c
c
u
r
a
c
y
.
T
h
e
g
r
a
d
u
a
l
r
e
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
i
n
M
A
P
E
as
t
h
e
ti
m
e
o
r
d
e
r
p
a
r
a
m
e
t
e
r
i
n
c
r
e
a
s
e
s
in
d
i
c
a
t
e
s
t
h
a
t
D
MA
c
a
n
e
f
f
e
c
t
i
v
e
l
y
ca
p
t
u
r
e
a
n
d
s
m
o
o
t
h
o
u
t
t
h
e
f
l
u
c
t
u
a
t
i
o
n
s
i
n
t
h
e
d
a
t
a
,
l
e
a
d
i
n
g
t
o
m
o
r
e
p
r
e
c
is
e
l
o
n
g
-
t
e
r
m
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
ts
.
T
ab
le
3
.
MA
PE
co
m
p
ar
is
o
n
o
f
SMA
an
d
DM
A
b
ased
o
n
v
a
r
y
in
g
tim
e
o
r
d
er
p
ar
am
ete
r
s
P
a
r
a
me
t
e
r
S
M
A
D
M
A
O
r
d
e
r
n
-
t
h
at
bt
|
P
E|
at
bt
|
P
E|
2
3
5
.
5
0
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5
0
.
0
1
3
8
9
3
6
.
2
5
0
.
5
0
.
0
2
0
8
3
3
3
6
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1
0
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4
0
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2
3
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.
7
7
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8
8
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5
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6
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0
.
7
1
4
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0
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3
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5
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2
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3
5
5
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1
4
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4
5
3
9
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0
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1
2
0
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7
2
3
2
0
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1
0
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0
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3
5
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3
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2
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0
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4
6
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9
5
0
6
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0
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8
0
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8
0
M
A
P
E
o
r
d
e
r
2
nd
t
i
m
e
6
.
1
2
3
%
M
A
P
E
o
r
d
e
r
4
th
t
i
m
e
5
.
9
9
3
%
(
a)
(
b
)
Fig
u
r
e
3
.
C
o
m
p
a
r
is
o
n
o
f
MA
PE
Valu
es f
o
r
(
a)
DE
S v
s
.
SES a
n
d
(
b
)
DM
A
v
s
.
SMA
Me
th
o
d
s
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
d
o
n
esian
J
E
lec
E
n
g
&
C
o
m
p
Sci
I
SS
N:
2
5
0
2
-
4
7
52
S
ea
s
o
n
a
l m
e
a
t sto
ck
d
ema
n
d
u
s
ed
co
mp
a
r
is
o
n
o
f
p
erfo
r
ma
n
ce
s
mo
o
th
in
g
-
a
ve
r
a
g
e
fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
(
Tu
n
d
o
)
631
3.
3
.
Dis
cus
s
io
n o
f
r
esu
lt
s
T
h
e
m
o
r
e
p
r
o
f
o
u
n
d
im
p
licati
o
n
s
o
f
th
ese
f
in
d
i
n
g
s
ar
e
m
an
if
o
ld
.
T
h
e
co
m
p
ar
is
o
n
b
etwe
en
SES
an
d
DE
S r
ev
ea
ls
th
at
wh
ile
DE
S t
h
eo
r
etica
lly
o
f
f
e
r
s
a
m
o
r
e
s
o
p
h
is
ticated
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
b
y
in
c
o
r
p
o
r
atin
g
an
ad
d
itio
n
al
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
s
tag
e,
m
o
r
e
is
n
ee
d
ed
to
tr
an
s
late
in
to
b
et
ter
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
ac
cu
r
ac
y
f
o
r
th
is
s
p
ec
if
ic
d
ataset.
T
h
e
h
ig
h
er
MA
PE
v
alu
es a
s
s
o
ciate
d
with
DE
S a
n
d
it
s
s
en
s
itiv
ity
to
p
ar
am
eter
ch
an
g
es su
g
g
est th
at
its
co
m
p
lex
ity
m
ig
h
t
in
tr
o
d
u
ce
u
n
n
ec
ess
ar
y
v
ar
iab
ilit
y
,
p
ar
ticu
la
r
ly
in
d
atasets
wh
er
e
th
e
tr
en
d
is
n
o
t p
r
o
n
o
u
n
ce
d
o
r
th
e
d
at
a
p
o
i
n
t
s
a
r
e
r
e
la
t
i
v
el
y
s
t
a
b
l
e
.
I
n
c
o
n
t
r
a
s
t
,
w
i
t
h
it
s
m
o
r
e
s
t
r
ai
g
h
tf
o
r
w
a
r
d
m
o
d
e
l
s
t
r
u
c
t
u
r
e
,
S
E
S
p
r
o
v
e
s
m
o
r
e
r
o
b
u
s
t
a
n
d
c
o
n
s
i
s
te
n
t
,
es
p
e
c
i
al
l
y
w
h
en
t
h
e
a
l
p
h
a
p
a
r
a
m
e
t
e
r
is
t
u
n
e
d
to
h
i
g
h
e
r
v
a
l
u
e
s
t
h
a
t
e
m
p
h
as
i
z
e
r
e
c
e
n
t
t
r
e
n
d
s
.
On
th
e
o
th
er
h
a
n
d
,
th
e
c
o
m
p
ar
is
o
n
b
etwe
en
SMA
an
d
DM
A
u
n
d
er
s
co
r
es
th
e
ef
f
ec
tiv
e
n
ess
o
f
th
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
in
h
an
d
lin
g
d
a
tasets
with
s
ea
s
o
n
al
s
o
lid
co
m
p
o
n
e
n
ts
.
T
h
e
lo
wer
MA
PE
v
alu
es
ac
h
iev
ed
b
y
DM
A,
esp
ec
ially
at
th
e
4
th
ti
m
e
o
r
d
er
,
h
ig
h
lig
h
t
its
ab
ilit
y
to
in
teg
r
ate
b
o
th
th
e
im
m
ed
iat
e
an
d
ex
ten
d
ed
p
ast
d
ata
p
o
in
ts
,
th
er
eb
y
p
r
o
v
id
in
g
a
m
o
r
e
c
o
m
p
r
e
h
en
s
iv
e
s
m
o
o
th
in
g
m
ec
h
an
is
m
th
at
ef
f
e
ctiv
ely
ca
p
tu
r
es
th
e
u
n
d
er
ly
i
n
g
p
atter
n
s
.
T
h
is
is
p
a
r
ticu
lar
ly
im
p
o
r
tan
t
in
s
ce
n
ar
i
o
s
wh
er
e
th
e
d
ata
ex
h
ib
its
co
m
p
lex
s
ea
s
o
n
al
an
d
tr
en
d
b
e
h
av
io
r
s
,
as seen
in
t
h
e
m
ea
t sto
ck
d
em
an
d
d
ata
f
r
o
m
Pem
alan
g
.
Fu
r
th
er
m
o
r
e
,
th
e
g
r
ap
h
ical
r
e
p
r
esen
tatio
n
s
in
Fig
u
r
es
3
(
a
)
a
n
d
3
(
b
)
v
is
u
ally
af
f
ir
m
th
e
s
u
p
er
io
r
ity
o
f
DM
A
o
v
er
SMA
an
d
SES o
v
e
r
DE
S,
m
ak
in
g
it e
v
id
en
t th
at
th
e
ch
o
ice
o
f
m
eth
o
d
ca
n
s
ig
n
i
f
ican
tly
im
p
ac
t th
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
o
f
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast.
T
h
e
co
n
s
is
ten
t
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
o
f
D
MA
,
p
ar
ticu
lar
ly
at
h
ig
h
er
tim
e
o
r
d
er
s
,
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at
it
is
b
etter
s
u
ited
f
o
r
d
atas
ets
with
p
r
o
n
o
u
n
ce
d
s
ea
s
o
n
al
f
lu
ctu
atio
n
s
,
wh
er
e
ca
p
tu
r
i
n
g
lo
n
g
-
ter
m
tr
en
d
s
is
cr
u
cial.
C
o
n
v
er
s
ely
,
SES'
s
p
er
f
o
r
m
a
n
ce
r
elativ
e
to
DE
S
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at
s
im
p
licity
in
m
o
d
el
s
tr
u
ctu
r
e
ca
n
s
o
m
etim
es o
u
tweig
h
th
e
b
e
n
ef
its
o
f
ad
d
itio
n
al
co
m
p
lex
ity
,
p
ar
ticu
lar
ly
in
d
atasets
wh
er
e
th
e
tr
en
d
co
m
p
o
n
en
t
is
less
d
o
m
in
an
t.
3.
4
.
F
ind
ing
s
T
h
e
ex
p
er
im
e
n
tal
r
esu
lts
in
d
icate
th
at
th
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
,
p
ar
ticu
lar
ly
with
a
4
th
tim
e
o
r
d
er
,
o
f
f
e
r
s
th
e
b
est
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
ac
c
u
r
ac
y
f
o
r
m
ea
t
s
to
ck
r
e
q
u
ir
em
e
n
ts
in
Pem
alan
g
,
as
ev
id
e
n
ce
d
b
y
its
lo
west
MA
PE
v
alu
e
o
f
5
.
9
9
3
%.
T
h
is
m
eth
o
d
'
s
s
u
p
er
io
r
p
er
f
o
r
m
a
n
ce
is
li
k
ely
d
u
e
to
its
ab
ilit
y
to
ca
p
tu
r
e
an
d
s
m
o
o
t
h
th
e
in
tr
icate
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
s
in
th
e
d
ata,
m
ak
in
g
it
th
e
m
o
s
t
r
eliab
le
ch
o
ice
f
o
r
lo
n
g
-
ter
m
f
o
r
ec
asts
.
T
h
e
SES
m
eth
o
d
also
s
h
o
ws
s
tr
o
n
g
p
er
f
o
r
m
a
n
ce
,
p
ar
ticu
la
r
ly
at
h
ig
h
er
alp
h
a
v
alu
es,
in
d
icatin
g
its
r
o
b
u
s
tn
ess
in
s
ce
n
ar
io
s
wh
er
e
th
e
f
o
cu
s
is
o
n
r
ec
en
t
d
ata
tr
en
d
s
.
Ov
er
all,
th
e
f
in
d
in
g
s
u
n
d
e
r
s
co
r
e
th
e
im
p
o
r
tan
ce
o
f
s
elec
tin
g
th
e
ap
p
r
o
p
r
iate
f
o
r
e
ca
s
tin
g
m
eth
o
d
b
ased
o
n
th
e
s
p
ec
if
ic
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
o
f
th
e
d
ataset,
with
DM
A
em
er
g
in
g
as th
e
m
o
s
t e
f
f
ec
tiv
e
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
f
o
r
th
is
p
ar
ticu
lar
ca
s
e.
4.
CO
NCLU
SI
O
N
T
h
is
s
tu
d
y
h
as
d
em
o
n
s
tr
ated
th
at
am
o
n
g
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
eth
o
d
s
an
aly
ze
d
SES,
DE
S,
SMA,
an
d
DM
A
,
th
e
DM
A
m
eth
o
d
with
a
4
th
-
o
r
d
er
tim
e
p
ar
a
m
eter
o
f
f
er
s
th
e
h
ig
h
est
ac
cu
r
ac
y
,
ac
h
iev
in
g
a
MA
PE
o
f
5
.
9
9
3
%,
m
ak
in
g
it
s
u
p
er
io
r
t
o
th
e
SMA
m
eth
o
d
at
6
.
1
2
3
%,
SES
at
6
.
5
2
%
(
α
=0
.
9
)
,
a
n
d
DE
S
at
8
.
2
1
%
(
α
=0
.
4
)
.
All
m
eth
o
d
s
ar
e
class
if
ied
as
ex
ce
llen
t,
with
M
APE
v
alu
es
b
elo
w
1
0
%,
u
n
d
er
s
co
r
in
g
th
eir
r
eliab
ilit
y
in
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
ea
t
s
to
ck
d
em
an
d
.
Ho
wev
e
r
,
th
e
s
en
s
itiv
ity
o
f
DE
S
an
d
DM
A
to
p
ar
am
et
er
s
ettin
g
s
,
s
u
c
h
as
alp
h
a
an
d
tim
e
o
r
d
e
r
,
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at
f
u
r
th
e
r
r
ef
in
e
m
en
t
is
n
ee
d
ed
.
Fu
tu
r
e
r
esear
ch
s
h
o
u
ld
e
x
p
lo
r
e
o
p
tim
izatio
n
tech
n
iq
u
es,
lik
e
h
y
p
er
p
ar
am
et
er
tu
n
i
n
g
,
to
e
n
h
an
ce
th
ese
m
eth
o
d
s
'
r
o
b
u
s
tn
ess
an
d
ac
cu
r
ac
y
,
e
n
s
u
r
in
g
th
ey
ca
n
ad
ap
t to
v
ar
io
u
s
tim
e
s
er
ies d
at
a
with
g
r
ea
ter
p
r
ec
is
io
n
.
ACK
NO
WL
E
DG
E
M
E
NT
S
T
h
e
au
th
o
r
s
ex
p
r
ess
th
eir
g
r
atitu
d
e
to
STI
KOM
C
KI
(
I
n
d
o
n
esia)
,
AGH
Un
iv
er
s
ity
o
f
Kr
ak
o
w
(
Po
lan
d
)
,
UPN
Vete
r
an
Yo
g
y
ak
a
r
ta
(
I
n
d
o
n
esia)
,
Un
i
v
er
s
itas
J
em
b
er
(
I
n
d
o
n
esia)
,
an
d
Un
iv
er
s
itas
Kr
is
n
ad
wip
ay
an
a
f
o
r
th
eir
s
u
p
p
o
r
t a
n
d
co
n
t
r
ib
u
tio
n
s
to
t
h
is
r
esear
ch
.
RE
F
E
R
E
NC
E
S
[
1
]
N
.
M
.
A
.
G
.
R
.
A
s
t
i
t
i
,
K
.
N
.
W
e
d
a
n
i
n
g
si
h
,
a
n
d
I
.
K
.
W
.
P
a
r
w
a
t
a
,
“
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
d
e
m
a
n
d
a
n
d
su
p
p
l
y
o
f
b
e
e
f
c
a
t
t
l
e
i
n
I
n
d
o
n
e
s
i
a
,
”
Ex
i
m
i
a
,
v
o
l
.
1
1
,
p
p
.
2
4
–
3
2
,
J
u
n
.
2
0
2
3
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
4
7
5
7
7
/
e
x
i
m
i
a
.
v
1
1
i
1
.
2
7
4
.
[
2
]
B
.
N
.
A
b
d
a
l
l
a
h
,
F
.
S
.
W
a
r
d
a
n
i
,
a
n
d
C
.
D
.
P
.
H
e
r
t
a
d
i
,
“
D
e
t
e
r
mi
n
a
t
i
o
n
o
f
su
p
p
l
y
s
t
r
a
t
e
g
y
f
o
r
b
e
e
f
p
r
i
c
e
s
t
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
i
n
B
a
l
i
k
p
a
p
a
n
:
G
a
me
T
h
e
o
r
y
A
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
,
”
G
-
T
e
c
h
:
J
u
rn
a
l
T
e
k
n
o
l
o
g
i
T
e
r
a
p
a
n
,
v
o
l
.
8
,
n
o
.
1
,
p
p
.
2
6
–
3
5
,
D
e
c
.
2
0
2
3
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
3
3
3
7
9
/
g
t
e
c
h
.
v
8
i
1
.
3
4
4
9
.
[
3
]
P
r
i
y
o
n
o
,
S
.
R
u
sd
i
a
n
a
,
M
a
p
l
a
n
i
,
a
n
d
C
.
Ta
l
i
b
,
“
E
n
h
a
n
c
i
n
g
be
e
f
su
p
p
l
y
t
h
r
o
u
g
h
b
e
e
f
se
l
f
-
su
f
f
i
c
i
e
n
c
y
p
o
l
i
c
y
i
n
I
n
d
o
n
e
si
a
:
a
n
e
c
o
n
o
me
t
r
i
c
a
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
,”
I
O
P
C
o
n
f
e
re
n
c
e
S
e
r
i
e
s:
E
a
rt
h
a
n
d
E
n
v
i
ro
n
m
e
n
t
a
l
S
c
i
e
n
c
e
,
v
o
l
.
1
3
6
0
,
n
o
.
1
,
p
.
0
1
2
0
3
5
,
J
u
n
.
2
0
2
4
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
1
0
8
8
/
1
7
5
5
-
1
3
1
5
/
1
3
6
0
/
1
/
0
1
2
0
3
5
.
[
4
]
W
.
Ju
n
t
h
o
p
a
s
a
n
d
C
.
W
o
n
g
o
u
t
o
n
g
,
“
S
e
t
t
i
n
g
t
h
e
i
n
i
t
i
a
l
v
a
l
u
e
f
o
r
s
i
n
g
l
e
e
x
p
o
n
e
n
t
i
a
l
sm
o
o
t
h
i
n
g
a
n
d
t
h
e
v
a
l
u
e
o
f
t
h
e
sm
o
o
t
h
i
n
g
c
o
n
st
a
n
t
f
o
r
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
u
si
n
g
so
l
v
e
r
i
n
M
i
c
r
o
s
o
f
t
Ex
c
e
l
,
”
A
p
p
l
i
e
d
S
c
i
e
n
c
e
s
,
v
o
l
.
1
3
,
n
o
.
7
,
p
.
4
3
2
8
,
M
a
r
.
2
0
2
3
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
3
3
9
0
/
a
p
p
1
3
0
7
4
3
2
8
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
5
0
2
-
4
7
52
In
d
o
n
esian
J
E
lec
E
n
g
&
C
o
m
p
Sci
,
Vo
l.
3
7
,
No
.
1
,
J
an
u
ar
y
20
2
5
:
62
5
-
63
3
632
[
5
]
S
.
G
.
B
a
n
d
e
i
r
a
,
S
.
G
.
S
.
A
l
c
a
l
á
,
R
.
O
.
V
i
t
a
,
a
n
d
T
.
M
.
G
.
d
e
A
.
B
a
r
b
o
sa
,
“
C
o
m
p
a
r
i
so
n
o
f
se
l
e
c
t
i
o
n
a
n
d
c
o
mb
i
n
a
t
i
o
n
st
r
a
t
e
g
i
e
s
f
o
r
d
e
m
a
n
d
f
o
r
e
c
a
st
i
n
g
met
h
o
d
s,”
Pr
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
,
v
o
l
.
3
0
,
2
0
2
0
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
1
5
9
0
/
0
1
0
3
-
6
5
1
3
.
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
9
.
[
6
]
D
.
F
e
b
r
i
a
n
,
S
.
I
.
A
l
I
d
r
u
s,
a
n
d
D
.
A
.
J.
N
a
i
n
g
g
o
l
a
n
,
“
T
h
e
c
o
mp
a
r
i
s
o
n
o
f
d
o
u
b
l
e
m
o
v
i
n
g
a
v
e
r
a
g
e
a
n
d
d
o
u
b
l
e
e
x
p
o
n
e
n
t
i
a
l
smo
o
t
h
i
n
g
met
h
o
d
s
i
n
f
o
r
e
c
a
st
i
n
g
t
h
e
n
u
mb
e
r
o
f
f
o
r
e
i
g
n
t
o
u
r
i
s
t
s
c
o
m
i
n
g
t
o
N
o
r
t
h
S
u
ma
t
e
r
a
,
”
J
o
u
r
n
a
l
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B
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c
a
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a
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m
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:
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p
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a
c
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id
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n
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id
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n
d
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rg
ra
d
u
a
te
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d
u
c
a
ti
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in
1
9
9
2
a
t
Un
iv
e
rsitas
P
u
tra
In
d
o
n
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sia
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K”
,
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n
f
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Un
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ig
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c
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v
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rsitas
P
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d
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sia
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.
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e
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h
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field
s
o
f
d
e
c
isio
n
su
p
p
o
rt
s
y
ste
m
,
d
a
ta
m
in
in
g
,
b
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si
n
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ss
in
tell
ig
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n
c
e
,
e
n
terp
r
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in
f
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rm
a
ti
o
n
sy
ste
m
,
a
n
d
a
p
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c
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ti
o
n
d
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v
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lo
p
m
e
n
t
.
Sh
e
c
a
n
b
e
c
o
n
tac
ted
a
t
e
m
a
il
:
e
lmid
e
v
ia
@u
n
k
r
is.ac
.
id
.
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