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46
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pp
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56
46
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Den
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[
1
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[
2
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De
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Me
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n
h
ea
lth
ca
r
e
s
y
s
tem
s
an
d
co
m
m
u
n
ities
.
R
ec
o
g
n
izin
g
th
e
cr
itical
n
ee
d
f
o
r
ea
r
ly
in
ter
v
e
n
tio
n
an
d
ad
d
r
ess
in
g
ex
is
tin
g
ch
allen
g
es
in
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
c
o
n
tr
o
l
,
th
is
s
tu
d
y
s
ee
k
s
to
d
ev
elo
p
a
n
d
v
alid
ate
a
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
el
b
ased
o
n
h
is
to
r
ical
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
d
ata
to
a
cc
u
r
ately
p
r
e
d
ict
f
u
t
u
r
e
o
u
t
b
r
ea
k
s
i
n
Pan
g
asin
a
n
,
th
er
eb
y
p
r
o
v
id
in
g
a
p
r
o
ac
tiv
e
to
o
l
f
o
r
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
p
lan
n
in
g
a
n
d
in
ter
v
en
tio
n
.
Sp
ec
if
ically
,
th
is
s
tu
d
y
aim
s
to
ad
d
r
ess
th
e
lack
o
f
p
r
ed
ictiv
e
s
y
s
tem
s
b
y
d
ev
elo
p
in
g
au
t
o
r
eg
r
ess
iv
e
in
t
eg
r
ated
m
o
v
in
g
av
e
r
ag
e
(
AR
I
MA
)
m
o
d
el,
ex
p
lo
r
in
g
to
wh
at
ex
ten
t
it
ca
n
b
e
ef
f
ec
tiv
ely
ap
p
lied
to
h
is
to
r
ica
l d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
d
ata
o
f
Pan
g
asin
an
.
T
h
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
a
wid
ely
u
s
ed
s
tatis
tical
m
eth
o
d
f
o
r
tim
e
s
er
ies
a
n
aly
s
is
[
7
]
,
is
p
ar
ticu
lar
ly
s
u
ited
to
m
o
d
elin
g
d
en
g
u
e
i
n
cid
en
ce
tr
en
d
s
b
ased
o
n
h
is
to
r
ical
ca
s
e
d
ata
[
8
]
.
I
n
r
ec
e
n
t
y
ea
r
s
,
n
u
m
er
o
u
s
s
tu
d
ies
h
av
e
em
p
lo
y
e
d
th
e
A
R
I
MA
m
o
d
el
to
f
o
r
ec
ast
o
th
e
r
r
an
g
e
o
f
in
f
ec
tio
u
s
d
is
ea
s
es
g
lo
b
ally
,
in
clu
d
in
g
in
f
lu
en
za
[
9
]
,
an
d
C
OVI
D
-
1
9
[
1
0
]
,
h
ig
h
lig
h
tin
g
its
ef
f
ec
tiv
en
ess
in
ca
p
tu
r
in
g
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
s
an
d
p
r
e
d
ictin
g
f
u
tu
r
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
with
r
ea
s
o
n
a
b
le
ac
cu
r
ac
y
.
Ho
wev
er
,
w
h
ile
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
h
as
b
ee
n
a
p
p
lied
s
u
cc
ess
f
u
lly
in
p
r
ed
ictin
g
in
f
ec
tio
u
s
d
is
ea
s
es
g
lo
b
ally
,
th
e
r
e
is
a
g
a
p
in
its
lo
ca
lized
ap
p
licatio
n
f
o
r
s
p
ec
if
ic
r
eg
io
n
s
lik
e
Pan
g
asin
an
.
Ma
n
y
ex
is
tin
g
s
t
u
d
ies
h
av
e
f
o
cu
s
ed
o
n
n
atio
n
al
o
r
b
r
o
ad
e
r
r
e
g
io
n
al
f
o
r
ec
as
ts
,
o
v
er
lo
o
k
in
g
th
e
im
p
o
r
tan
ce
o
f
lo
ca
lized
p
r
ed
i
ctio
n
m
o
d
els
th
at
co
n
s
id
er
r
eg
io
n
-
s
p
ec
if
ic
tr
en
d
s
.
Ad
d
r
ess
in
g
th
is
g
ap
ca
n
h
elp
tailo
r
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lt
h
r
esp
o
n
s
es t
o
th
e
s
p
ec
if
ic
n
ee
d
s
o
f
lo
ca
l c
o
m
m
u
n
ities
.
T
h
e
s
ig
n
if
ican
ce
o
f
th
is
s
tu
d
y
lies
in
its
p
o
ten
tial
to
e
n
h
an
ce
th
e
ca
p
ac
ity
o
f
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
a
u
th
o
r
ities
to
r
esp
o
n
d
to
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
e
ak
s
p
r
o
ac
tiv
ely
.
B
y
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
p
o
s
s
ib
le
d
en
g
u
e
s
u
r
g
es,
l
o
ca
l
o
f
f
icials
ca
n
allo
ca
te
r
eso
u
r
ce
s
m
o
r
e
e
f
f
ici
en
tly
,
tar
g
et
h
ig
h
-
r
is
k
ar
ea
s
f
o
r
p
r
e
v
en
tiv
e
i
n
ter
v
en
tio
n
s
,
an
d
u
ltima
tely
r
ed
u
ce
th
e
s
p
r
ea
d
o
f
th
e
d
is
ea
s
e.
T
h
i
s
s
tu
d
y
s
h
all
n
o
t
o
n
ly
c
o
n
tr
ib
u
te
to
t
h
e
g
r
o
win
g
b
o
d
y
o
f
r
esear
ch
o
n
d
e
n
g
u
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
b
u
t
also
o
f
f
er
a
p
r
ac
tical
s
o
lu
tio
n
tailo
r
ed
to
th
e
n
ee
d
s
o
f
Pan
g
asin
an
,
wh
er
e
d
en
g
u
e
co
n
tin
u
es
to
th
r
ea
ten
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
.
2.
RE
S
E
ARCH
M
E
T
H
O
D
T
h
is
r
esear
ch
s
tu
d
y
o
n
f
o
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
u
s
in
g
a
p
r
e
d
ictiv
e
m
o
d
el
f
o
llo
wed
a
s
tr
u
ctu
r
ed
m
eth
o
d
o
l
o
g
y
.
I
n
th
e
m
o
d
el
s
e
lectio
n
p
h
ase,
th
e
r
esear
c
h
er
s
co
n
d
u
cte
d
an
ex
te
n
s
iv
e
r
ev
ie
w
o
f
r
ec
en
t
r
elate
d
liter
atu
r
e
to
id
en
tify
th
e
m
o
s
t
s
u
itab
le
m
o
d
el
f
o
r
p
r
ed
ictin
g
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
.
R
elev
an
t
s
tu
d
ies
o
n
tim
e
s
er
ies
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
eth
o
d
s
wer
e
g
at
h
er
ed
an
d
an
aly
ze
d
,
f
o
c
u
s
in
g
o
n
m
o
d
els
p
r
ev
io
u
s
ly
a
p
p
lie
d
in
th
e
co
n
te
x
t
o
f
in
f
ec
tio
u
s
d
is
ea
s
e
p
r
ed
ictio
n
.
Alter
n
ativ
e
m
o
d
els,
s
u
ch
as
s
ea
s
o
n
al
au
to
r
eg
r
ess
iv
e
in
teg
r
a
ted
m
o
v
in
g
a
v
er
ag
e
(
SAR
I
MA
)
an
d
o
th
er
m
ac
h
in
e
lear
n
in
g
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
es
lik
e
lo
n
g
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
m
em
o
r
y
(
L
ST
M)
n
etwo
r
k
s
,
wer
e
co
n
s
id
er
ed
.
Ho
wev
er
,
AR
I
MA
was
s
elec
ted
d
u
e
to
its
in
ter
p
r
etab
ilit
y
,
s
im
p
licity
,
a
n
d
r
eliab
ilit
y
,
p
ar
ticu
lar
l
y
f
o
r
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
e
p
r
ed
ictio
n
s
[
1
1
]
.
T
h
e
d
ec
is
io
n
to
u
s
e
AR
I
MA
was
g
u
id
e
d
b
y
its
ab
ilit
y
to
ef
f
ec
tiv
ely
m
o
d
el
n
o
n
-
s
tatio
n
ar
y
tim
e
s
er
ies
d
ata
wh
ile
ca
p
tu
r
in
g
tr
e
n
d
s
an
d
s
ea
s
o
n
al
v
ar
iatio
n
s
.
W
h
ile
SAR
I
MA
o
f
f
er
s
en
h
an
ce
m
en
t
s
f
o
r
e
x
p
licitly
h
a
n
d
lin
g
s
ea
s
o
n
ality
,
th
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
c
o
m
p
o
n
en
t
in
d
en
g
u
e
d
at
a
f
o
r
Pan
g
asin
an
was
ad
eq
u
ately
a
d
d
r
ess
ed
u
s
in
g
p
r
e
p
r
o
ce
s
s
in
g
an
d
AR
I
MA
p
ar
am
eter
s
.
Fu
r
th
er
m
o
r
e
,
m
ac
h
in
e
lear
n
in
g
m
o
d
els
lik
e
L
STM
,
th
o
u
g
h
p
o
wer
f
u
l,
r
eq
u
ir
e
ex
ten
s
iv
e
co
m
p
u
tatio
n
al
r
eso
u
r
ce
s
,
lar
g
er
d
atasets
,
an
d
ar
e
o
f
te
n
less
in
ter
p
r
etab
le
f
o
r
n
o
n
-
tech
n
i
ca
l
s
tak
eh
o
l
d
er
s
[
1
2
]
.
T
o
ef
f
e
ctiv
ely
a
p
p
ly
th
e
s
elec
ted
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
th
e
f
o
llo
win
g
m
eth
o
d
o
lo
g
ies
wer
e
e
m
p
lo
y
e
d
to
s
y
s
tem
atica
lly
d
ev
elo
p
,
ass
ess
,
an
d
v
alid
ate
its
p
r
ed
ictiv
e
ca
p
a
b
ilit
ies
.
2
.
1
.
Da
t
a
c
o
llect
io
n a
nd
prepro
ce
s
s
ing
T
h
e
h
is
to
r
ical
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
d
a
ta
u
s
ed
in
th
is
s
tu
d
y
we
r
e
o
b
tain
ed
f
r
o
m
t
h
e
Pro
v
in
cial
E
p
i
d
em
io
lo
g
y
an
d
Su
r
v
eillan
ce
Un
it
(
PESU)
o
f
Pan
g
asin
an
,
co
v
er
in
g
t
h
e
p
er
io
d
f
r
o
m
2
0
1
9
to
2
0
2
4
.
T
h
e
d
ataset
in
clu
d
es
m
o
n
th
ly
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
co
u
n
ts
f
r
o
m
v
ar
io
u
s
m
u
n
icip
alities
in
Pan
g
asin
an
.
T
h
e
d
ataset
was
s
u
b
jecte
d
to
th
o
r
o
u
g
h
p
r
ep
r
o
ce
s
s
in
g
to
en
s
u
r
e
d
ata
q
u
ality
an
d
co
n
s
is
ten
cy
.
Miss
in
g
v
alu
es
wer
e
ex
a
m
in
ed
an
d
h
an
d
le
d
u
s
in
g
th
e
m
ea
n
-
f
ill
tech
n
iq
u
e,
as
r
ec
o
m
m
e
n
d
ed
b
y
Kam
alo
v
[
1
3
]
,
to
m
ain
tain
tem
p
o
r
al
co
n
tin
u
ity
a
n
d
m
in
im
ize
b
ias
in
th
e
d
ataset.
Du
p
licate
r
ec
o
r
d
s
wer
e
id
en
ti
f
ied
an
d
r
em
o
v
ed
t
o
p
r
ev
en
t
d
ata
r
ep
etitio
n
.
T
o
en
s
u
r
e
u
n
if
o
r
m
ity
i
n
d
ata
r
e
p
r
esen
tatio
n
,
m
u
n
icip
ality
n
am
e
s
wer
e
s
tan
d
ar
d
ized
b
y
co
r
r
ec
tin
g
ty
p
o
g
r
ap
h
ical
er
r
o
r
s
an
d
en
s
u
r
in
g
co
n
s
is
ten
t
s
p
ellin
g
.
R
ed
u
n
d
a
n
t
co
lu
m
n
s
,
s
u
ch
as
ad
m
in
is
tr
ativ
e
n
o
t
es
o
r
m
etad
ata
n
o
t
r
elev
an
t
to
th
e
an
al
y
s
is
,
wer
e
elim
in
ated
to
s
tr
ea
m
lin
e
th
e
d
ataset
an
d
im
p
r
o
v
e
co
m
p
u
tatio
n
al
ef
f
icien
c
y
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
2
5
2
-
8
7
7
6
I
n
t J I
n
f
&
C
o
m
m
u
n
T
ec
h
n
o
l
,
Vo
l.
1
5
,
No
.
1
,
Ma
r
ch
20
2
6
:
46
-
56
48
Ad
d
itio
n
ally
,
th
e
d
ataset
was
r
ef
o
r
m
atted
in
to
a
s
tr
u
ctu
r
e
d
tim
e
-
s
er
ies
f
o
r
m
at,
with
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
co
u
n
ts
in
d
ex
ed
b
y
m
o
n
th
an
d
y
ea
r
to
f
ac
ilit
ate
ac
cu
r
ate
tem
p
o
r
al
an
aly
s
is
.
T
h
is
r
e
s
tr
u
ctu
r
in
g
en
s
u
r
ed
th
at
ea
ch
o
b
s
er
v
atio
n
f
o
llo
wed
a
c
o
n
s
is
ten
t c
h
r
o
n
o
lo
g
ical
o
r
d
er
,
en
ab
li
n
g
p
r
ec
is
e
tr
en
d
d
etec
tio
n
an
d
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
.
2
.
2
.
ARIM
A
m
o
del t
ra
ini
ng
a
nd
ev
a
lu
a
t
io
n
T
h
e
d
ataset
was
d
i
v
id
ed
in
to
7
0
%
tr
ain
in
g
d
ata
a
n
d
3
0
%
test
in
g
d
ata
to
t
r
ain
a
n
d
e
v
alu
ate
t
h
e
m
o
d
el.
T
h
is
d
iv
is
io
n
ad
h
er
es
to
esta
b
lis
h
ed
b
est
p
r
ac
tices
in
t
im
e
-
s
er
ies
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
,
en
s
u
r
in
g
th
at
a
s
u
b
s
tan
tia
l
p
o
r
tio
n
o
f
th
e
d
ata
is
u
s
ed
f
o
r
m
o
d
el
tr
a
in
in
g
wh
ile
r
etain
i
n
g
a
s
u
f
f
icien
t
test
in
g
s
et
f
o
r
a
cc
u
r
ate
ev
alu
atio
n
an
d
v
alid
atio
n
[
1
4
]
,
[
1
5
]
.
Usi
n
g
at
least
two
-
th
ir
d
s
o
f
th
e
d
ata
f
o
r
tr
ain
in
g
en
s
u
r
es
th
e
m
o
d
el
lear
n
s
s
tab
le
tem
p
o
r
al
p
atter
n
s
,
wh
ile
th
e
r
em
ain
in
g
d
ata
allo
ws
f
o
r
ef
f
e
ctiv
e
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
ev
alu
atio
n
.
T
h
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
th
en
was
tr
ain
ed
u
s
in
g
th
e
tr
ain
in
g
d
ataset,
en
ab
lin
g
it
to
lear
n
h
is
to
r
ical
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
p
atter
n
s
.
T
h
e
m
o
d
el
was
im
p
lem
en
ted
in
R
lan
g
u
a
g
e
u
s
in
g
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
an
d
ts
er
ies
p
ac
k
ag
es,
wh
ich
p
r
o
v
id
e
r
o
b
u
s
t
to
o
ls
f
o
r
tim
e
-
s
er
ies
an
aly
s
is
.
T
h
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
p
ac
k
ag
e
was
u
s
ed
f
o
r
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
esti
m
atio
n
a
n
d
p
r
ed
icti
o
n
,
wh
ile
t
h
e
ts
er
ies
p
ac
k
ag
e
f
ac
ilit
ated
s
tatis
tical
t
esti
n
g
an
d
p
r
ep
r
o
ce
s
s
in
g
.
T
o
d
eter
m
i
n
e
s
tatio
n
ar
ity
,
t
h
e
au
g
m
en
ted
d
ick
e
y
-
f
u
ller
(
AD
F)
test
was
p
er
f
o
r
m
ed
,
en
s
u
r
i
n
g
th
e
d
ata
m
et
AR
I
MA
’
s
ass
u
m
p
tio
n
s
.
T
h
e
m
o
d
el
p
ar
am
eter
s
wer
e
id
e
n
tifie
d
u
s
in
g
au
t
o
co
r
r
elatio
n
f
u
n
ctio
n
(
AC
F)
an
d
p
ar
tial
au
to
co
r
r
elatio
n
f
u
n
ctio
n
(
PAC
F)
p
lo
ts
,
wh
ile
th
e
ak
aik
e
in
f
o
r
m
atio
n
cr
iter
io
n
(
AI
C
)
was
u
tili
ze
d
to
o
p
tim
ize
th
e
s
elec
tio
n
o
f
p
ar
a
m
eter
s
th
at
m
in
im
ized
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
er
r
o
r
.
2
.
2
.
1
.
ADF
t
est
f
o
r
s
t
a
t
io
na
ri
t
y
T
o
d
eter
m
in
e
wh
et
h
er
th
e
tim
e
s
er
ies
d
ata
wer
e
s
tatio
n
ar
y
,
th
e
ADF
test
wa
s
p
er
f
o
r
m
ed
.
T
h
e
ADF
test
f
o
llo
ws th
e
(
1
)
:
=
+
+
−
1
+
∑
=
1
−
+
(
1
)
W
h
er
e
Yt
is
th
e
tim
e
s
er
ies,
Δ
Yt
is
th
e
f
ir
s
t
-
d
if
f
er
en
ce
d
v
alu
e,
t
is
tim
e,
α
is
a
co
n
s
tan
t,
β
i
s
th
e
co
ef
f
icien
t
f
o
r
tr
en
d
,
γ
Yt−1
r
ep
r
esen
ts
th
e
la
g
g
ed
v
alu
e,
δi
r
ep
r
esen
ts
th
e
l
ag
g
ed
d
if
f
er
e
n
ce
d
ter
m
s
,
an
d
ϵt
is
th
e
wh
ite
n
o
is
e
er
r
o
r
ter
m
.
T
h
e
d
ec
is
io
n
c
r
iter
ia
f
o
r
s
tatio
n
ar
ity
wer
e
b
ased
o
n
th
e
test
s
tat
is
tic
an
d
p
-
v
alu
e:
I
f
th
e
test
s
tati
s
tic
is
m
o
r
e
n
eg
ativ
e
th
an
th
e
cr
itical
v
alu
e,
th
e
s
er
ies
i
s
s
tatio
n
ar
y
.
T
h
u
s
,
if
th
e
p
-
v
alu
e
is
less
th
an
0
.
0
5
,
th
e
n
u
ll
h
y
p
o
th
esis
(
p
r
esen
ce
o
f
a
u
n
it
r
o
o
t)
is
r
ejec
t
ed
,
c
o
n
f
ir
m
in
g
s
t
atio
n
ar
ity
.
2
.
2
.
2
.
M
o
del
s
elec
t
io
n us
i
ng
AIC
T
o
id
en
tif
y
th
e
b
est
-
f
itti
n
g
A
R
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
d
if
f
er
e
n
t
m
o
d
e
l
co
n
f
ig
u
r
atio
n
s
wer
e
test
ed
,
an
d
th
eir
AI
C
v
alu
es we
r
e
co
m
p
ar
e
d
.
A
I
C
is
ca
lcu
lated
as
(
2
)
:
=
2
−
2
(
)
(
2
)
W
h
er
e:
is
th
e
n
u
m
b
er
o
f
esti
m
ated
p
ar
am
eter
s
,
an
d
is
th
e
l
ik
elih
o
o
d
f
u
n
ctio
n
.
A
lo
wer
AI
C
v
alu
e
in
d
icate
s
a
b
etter
m
o
d
el
f
it.
Mo
r
eo
v
er
,
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
an
ce
was
ass
ess
ed
u
s
in
g
m
u
ltip
le
s
tatis
tical
m
etr
ics,
in
clu
d
in
g
m
ea
n
ab
s
o
lu
te
er
r
o
r
(
MA
E
)
to
m
e
asu
r
e
th
e
av
er
a
g
e
m
a
g
n
itu
d
e
o
f
er
r
o
r
s
in
f
o
r
ec
asts
,
r
o
o
t
m
ea
n
s
q
u
a
r
ed
er
r
o
r
(
R
MSE
)
to
ca
p
tu
r
e
lar
g
e
e
r
r
o
r
s
b
y
p
en
alizin
g
h
ig
h
er
d
ev
iati
o
n
s
,
an
d
m
ea
n
a
b
s
o
lu
te
p
er
ce
n
tag
e
er
r
o
r
(
MA
PE)
to
ev
alu
ate
t
h
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
ac
cu
r
ac
y
b
y
co
m
p
ar
in
g
p
r
ed
icted
an
d
ac
t
u
al
v
alu
es.
Ad
d
itio
n
ally
,
m
ea
n
a
b
s
o
lu
te
s
ca
led
er
r
o
r
(
MA
SE)
was
u
s
ed
to
ass
ess
r
elativ
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
c
o
m
p
ar
ed
to
a
n
aïv
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
el,
wh
ile
th
e
AC
F
wa
s
an
aly
ze
d
to
ch
ec
k
f
o
r
p
atter
n
s
in
p
r
ed
ictio
n
e
r
r
o
r
s
.
2
.
3
.
Ut
iliza
t
io
n o
f
t
he
ARIM
A
m
o
del
I
n
th
e
f
in
al
p
h
ase,
th
e
tr
ai
n
e
d
an
d
v
alid
ated
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
was
u
tili
ze
d
to
g
e
n
er
ate
f
o
r
ec
asts
o
f
de
n
g
u
e
ca
s
es
in
Pan
g
asin
an
.
Diag
n
o
s
tic
ch
ec
k
s
wer
e
co
n
d
u
cted
t
o
e
n
s
u
r
e
th
e
r
eliab
ili
ty
o
f
th
e
f
o
r
ec
ast,
in
clu
d
in
g
r
esid
u
al
an
al
y
s
is
to
co
n
f
ir
m
th
e
ab
s
en
ce
o
f
au
to
co
r
r
elatio
n
in
er
r
o
r
s
,
wh
ich
en
s
u
r
es th
at
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
p
r
ed
ictio
n
s
ar
e
in
d
e
p
en
d
e
n
t
an
d
ac
cu
r
ate.
T
h
ese
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
eth
o
d
s
p
r
o
v
id
e
a
s
tr
u
c
tu
r
ed
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
t
o
an
ticip
atin
g
d
e
n
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
an
d
s
er
v
e
as
a
f
o
u
n
d
atio
n
f
o
r
p
r
o
ac
tiv
e
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
p
lan
n
in
g
.
B
y
ass
ess
in
g
th
e
r
esid
u
als
a
n
d
v
alid
atin
g
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
ass
u
m
p
tio
n
s
,
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
p
er
f
o
r
m
a
n
ce
was
f
u
r
th
er
co
n
f
ir
m
ed
,
en
s
u
r
in
g
its
s
u
itab
ilit
y
f
o
r
m
ak
in
g
ac
cu
r
ate
p
r
ed
ictio
n
s
.
T
h
e
m
o
d
el
was
th
en
ap
p
lied
to
p
r
ed
ict
wh
ich
m
u
n
icip
alities
ar
e
lik
ely
to
ex
p
er
ien
ce
d
e
n
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
an
d
to
id
en
tify
t
h
e
s
p
ec
if
ic
m
o
n
th
s
wh
en
th
e
p
r
o
v
in
ce
o
f
Pan
g
asin
an
m
a
y
b
e
at
h
ig
h
e
r
r
is
k
f
o
r
th
e
y
ea
r
2
0
2
5
.
T
h
e
f
o
r
ec
asts
wer
e
v
is
u
alize
d
th
r
o
u
g
h
tim
e
s
er
ies
p
lo
ts
,
h
ig
h
lig
h
tin
g
p
o
te
n
tial
p
ea
k
p
e
r
io
d
s
an
d
en
a
b
lin
g
a
clea
r
er
u
n
d
er
s
tan
d
in
g
o
f
th
e
an
ticip
ated
tr
en
d
s
in
d
en
g
u
e
in
cid
e
n
ce
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
t J I
n
f
&
C
o
m
m
u
n
T
ec
h
n
o
l
I
SS
N:
2252
-
8
7
7
6
E
xp
lo
r
a
to
r
y
d
a
ta
a
n
a
lysi
s
a
n
d
fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
o
f d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
ks in
P
a
n
g
a
s
in
a
n
…
(
P
a
tr
ick
Mo
le
)
49
3.
RE
SU
L
T
S AN
D
D
I
SCU
SS
I
O
N
T
h
e
d
ataset
u
s
ed
in
th
is
a
n
aly
s
i
s
co
n
s
is
ts
o
f
m
o
n
th
ly
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
r
ec
o
r
d
s
f
r
o
m
v
ar
io
u
s
m
u
n
icip
alities
in
Pan
g
asin
an
,
in
clu
d
in
g
f
o
u
r
m
ain
v
ar
iab
les:
Mo
n
th
,
Yea
r
,
Mu
n
icip
ality
,
a
n
d
Den
g
u
e
C
ases
.
T
h
ese
v
ar
iab
les
p
r
o
v
id
e
a
ti
m
e
-
b
ased
b
r
ea
k
d
o
wn
o
f
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
es,
allo
win
g
f
o
r
b
o
th
tem
p
o
r
al
a
n
d
s
p
atial
an
aly
s
is
o
f
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
p
atter
n
s
.
T
h
e
r
esu
lts
o
f
th
is
s
tu
d
y
a
r
e
p
r
esen
te
d
in
two
p
ar
ts
:
(
1
)
ex
p
lo
r
ato
r
y
d
ata
an
aly
s
is
(
E
DA)
o
f
d
en
g
u
e
d
a
ta
in
Pan
g
asin
an
,
wh
ich
ex
am
in
es
h
is
to
r
ical
tr
en
d
s
an
d
p
atter
n
s
in
th
e
d
ataset
b
ef
o
r
e
p
r
o
ce
ed
in
g
to
m
o
d
el
d
ev
elo
p
m
en
t,
a
n
d
(
2
)
I
m
p
lem
e
n
tatio
n
o
f
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
wh
ich
f
o
cu
s
es
o
n
th
e
d
ev
elo
p
m
en
t,
e
v
alu
atio
n
,
a
n
d
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
o
f
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
u
s
in
g
tim
e
-
s
er
ies m
o
d
eli
n
g
.
3
.
1
.
E
x
plo
ra
t
o
ry
da
t
a
a
na
l
y
s
is
o
f
deng
ue
da
t
a
in
P
a
ng
a
s
ina
n
As
p
ar
t
o
f
th
is
an
aly
s
is
,
a
b
o
x
p
lo
t
was
g
en
er
ated
t
o
co
m
p
ar
e
th
e
y
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v
er
in
g
its
tr
ain
in
g
,
e
v
alu
atio
n
,
a
n
d
u
s
e
in
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
f
u
tu
r
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
.
3
.
2
.
I
m
ple
m
ent
a
t
io
n o
f
ARIM
A
m
o
del in deng
ue
da
t
a
o
f
P
a
ng
a
s
ina
n
T
im
e
s
er
ies
m
o
d
els
s
u
ch
as
A
R
I
MA
,
SAR
I
MA
,
an
d
m
ac
h
in
e
lear
n
in
g
tech
n
iq
u
es
h
av
e
b
e
en
wid
ely
u
s
ed
to
p
r
e
d
ict
in
f
ec
tio
u
s
d
is
e
ases
;
h
o
wev
er
,
th
eir
a
p
p
licati
o
n
to
lo
ca
lized
d
e
n
g
u
e
f
o
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
,
esp
ec
ially
f
o
r
s
p
ec
if
ic
r
eg
io
n
s
lik
e
Pan
g
asin
an
,
h
as
b
ee
n
lim
ited
.
Mo
s
t
p
r
e
v
io
u
s
s
tu
d
ies
h
av
e
f
o
c
u
s
ed
o
n
n
atio
n
al
o
r
b
r
o
ad
er
r
eg
io
n
al
p
r
ed
ictio
n
s
,
o
f
ten
o
v
er
lo
o
k
in
g
th
e
d
is
tin
ct
p
atter
n
s
th
at
m
a
y
e
x
is
t
at
th
e
m
u
n
ici
p
al
lev
el.
T
o
a
d
d
r
ess
t
h
is
g
ap
,
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
was
ch
o
s
en
an
d
em
p
lo
y
s
d
u
e
to
its
ab
ilit
y
to
ca
p
tu
r
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
s
an
d
tem
p
o
r
al
d
ep
e
n
d
en
cies,
o
f
f
er
in
g
a
m
o
r
e
tailo
r
e
d
an
d
lo
ca
lized
f
o
r
ec
ast
f
o
r
Pa
n
g
asin
an
’
s
u
n
iq
u
e
ep
id
em
io
lo
g
ical
c
o
n
tex
t.
3
.
2
.
1
.
ARIM
A
m
o
del t
ra
ini
n
g
a
nd
t
esting
T
o
b
u
ild
a
p
r
ed
ictiv
e
m
o
d
el,
t
h
e
d
ataset
was
d
iv
id
e
d
in
t
o
t
wo
s
eg
m
en
ts
:
a
tr
ain
i
n
g
s
et
a
n
d
a
test
in
g
s
et.
Fo
llo
win
g
th
e
s
tan
d
ar
d
a
p
p
r
o
ac
h
,
th
e
7
0
%
o
f
th
e
d
ata
was
allo
ca
ted
f
o
r
tr
ain
in
g
,
a
n
d
3
0
%
f
o
r
test
in
g
.
T
h
e
tr
ain
in
g
s
et
was
u
s
ed
to
d
ev
elo
p
an
d
f
it
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
allo
win
g
it
to
lear
n
h
is
to
r
ical
tr
en
d
s
an
d
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
s
.
T
h
e
r
em
ain
in
g
3
0
%
s
er
v
ed
as
th
e
test
i
n
g
s
et,
en
ab
lin
g
th
e
ev
alu
atio
n
o
f
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
t J I
n
f
&
C
o
m
m
u
n
T
ec
h
n
o
l
I
SS
N:
2252
-
8
7
7
6
E
xp
lo
r
a
to
r
y
d
a
ta
a
n
a
lysi
s
a
n
d
fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
o
f d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
ks in
P
a
n
g
a
s
in
a
n
…
(
P
a
tr
ick
Mo
le
)
51
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
a
n
d
f
o
r
ec
ast
ac
cu
r
ac
y
.
C
o
n
s
eq
u
en
tly
,
af
ter
tr
ain
in
g
t
h
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
i
t
was
n
ec
ess
ar
y
to
en
s
u
r
e
th
at
th
e
tim
e
s
er
ies
d
ata
wer
e
s
tatio
n
ar
y
,
as
s
tatio
n
ar
ity
is
a
f
u
n
d
am
e
n
tal
ass
u
m
p
tio
n
f
o
r
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
elin
g
.
T
o
v
er
if
y
th
is
,
th
e
ADF
test
was
co
n
d
u
cted
o
n
th
e
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
e
d
ata.
T
h
e
ADF
test
as
s
ess
e
s
wh
eth
er
a
tim
e
s
er
ies
co
n
tain
s
a
u
n
it
r
o
o
t,
in
d
icatin
g
n
o
n
-
s
tatio
n
ar
ity
.
T
h
e
n
u
ll
h
y
p
o
th
esis
(
H₀)
s
tates
th
at
th
e
s
er
ies
is
n
o
n
-
s
tatio
n
ar
y
,
wh
ile
th
e
alter
n
ativ
e
h
y
p
o
th
esis
(
H₁)
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at
th
e
s
er
ies
is
s
tat
io
n
ar
y
.
T
h
e
r
esu
lts
o
f
th
e
ADF
test
f
o
r
th
e
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
d
ataset
ar
e
p
r
esen
ted
in
T
ab
le
1
.
Sin
ce
th
e
test
s
tatis
t
ic
(
-
3
.
2
1
)
is
m
o
r
e
n
eg
ativ
e
th
an
th
e
cr
iti
ca
l
v
alu
e
(
-
2
.
8
9
)
an
d
th
e
p
-
v
alu
e
(
0
.
0
2
1
)
is
b
elo
w
th
e
s
ig
n
if
ica
n
ce
lev
e
l
(
0
.
0
5
)
,
th
e
n
u
ll
h
y
p
o
t
h
esis
was
r
ejec
ted
.
T
h
is
co
n
f
ir
m
s
t
h
at
th
e
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
d
ataset
is
s
tatio
n
ar
y
,
m
ea
n
i
n
g
it
d
o
es
n
o
t
r
eq
u
ir
e
ad
d
itio
n
al
d
if
f
er
en
cin
g
b
e
f
o
r
e
m
o
d
el
tr
ain
in
g
.
On
ce
s
tatio
n
ar
ity
was
co
n
f
ir
m
ed
,
th
e
n
ex
t
s
tep
in
v
o
lv
ed
s
elec
tin
g
th
e
b
est
A
R
I
MA
m
o
d
el
b
y
ev
alu
atin
g
m
u
ltip
le
co
n
f
ig
u
r
atio
n
s
u
s
in
g
th
e
AI
C
.
T
o
id
en
tify
th
e
o
p
tim
al
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
d
if
f
er
e
n
t
p
ar
am
e
ter
co
m
b
in
atio
n
s
wer
e
test
ed
,
an
d
th
eir
c
o
r
r
esp
o
n
d
in
g
AI
C
v
alu
es we
r
e
r
ec
o
r
d
ed
.
T
h
e
r
esu
lts
ar
e
p
r
esen
ted
i
n
T
ab
le
2
.
T
ab
le
1
.
ADF
test
r
esu
lts
V
a
r
i
a
b
l
e
V
a
l
u
e
Te
st
S
t
a
t
i
s
t
i
c
s
-
3
.
2
1
C
r
i
t
i
c
a
l
V
a
l
u
e
(
5
%)
-
2
.
8
9
p
-
v
a
l
u
e
0
.
0
2
1
D
e
c
i
s
i
o
n
S
t
a
t
i
o
n
a
r
y
T
ab
le
2
.
AI
C
v
alu
es f
o
r
d
if
f
er
en
t
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
els
M
o
d
e
l
A
I
C
v
a
l
u
e
S
e
l
e
c
t
e
d
?
A
R
I
M
A
(
1
,
1
,
0
)
3
2
0
.
5
No
A
R
I
M
A
(
2
,
1
,
1
)
3
1
0
.
2
Y
e
s
A
R
I
M
A
(
3
,
1
,
2
)
3
1
5
.
7
No
Am
o
n
g
th
e
m
o
d
els
test
ed
,
AR
I
MA
(
2
,
1
,
1
)
ac
h
iev
e
d
th
e
lo
west
AI
C
v
alu
e
(
3
1
0
.
2
)
,
m
a
k
in
g
it
th
e
o
p
tim
al
m
o
d
el
f
o
r
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
in
Pan
g
asin
an
.
T
h
is
m
o
d
el
was
p
r
e
f
er
r
e
d
as
it
ef
f
ec
tiv
ely
ca
p
tu
r
ed
th
e
tem
p
o
r
al
p
atter
n
s
in
t
h
e
d
ataset
wh
ile
av
o
id
in
g
u
n
n
ec
ess
ar
y
c
o
m
p
lex
ity
.
T
h
e
s
elec
ted
m
o
d
el
was
th
en
ap
p
lied
to
g
e
n
er
ate
f
o
r
ec
asts
,
wh
ich
ar
e
d
is
cu
s
s
ed
in
th
e
f
o
llo
win
g
s
ec
tio
n
s
.
Af
ter
f
in
alizin
g
th
e
AR
I
MA
(
2
,
1
,
1
)
m
o
d
el,
th
e
n
ex
t step
was to
ev
alu
ate
its
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
b
y
test
in
g
it
o
n
th
e
r
eser
v
e
d
d
ataset.
T
h
e
f
o
llo
win
g
p
lo
t
c
o
m
p
ar
es
th
e
ac
tu
al
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
with
t
h
e
f
o
r
ec
asted
v
alu
es
b
ased
o
n
th
is
tr
ai
n
-
te
s
t
s
etu
p
.
T
h
is
co
m
p
ar
is
o
n
p
r
o
v
id
es
a
clea
r
in
d
icatio
n
o
f
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
ab
ilit
y
to
p
r
e
d
ict
f
u
tu
r
e
ca
s
es,
d
em
o
n
s
tr
atin
g
its
ef
f
ec
tiv
en
ess
in
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
d
en
g
u
e
tr
e
n
d
s
in
Pan
g
asin
an
.
F
i
g
u
r
e
3
p
r
e
s
e
n
t
s
t
h
e
c
o
m
p
a
r
i
s
o
n
b
e
t
we
e
n
t
h
e
f
o
r
e
c
as
te
d
a
n
d
a
c
t
u
a
l
d
e
n
g
u
e
c
as
e
s
i
n
Pa
n
g
a
s
i
n
a
n
,
i
l
l
u
s
t
r
a
t
i
n
g
t
h
e
t
es
t
i
n
g
p
h
a
s
e
o
f
t
h
e
A
R
I
M
A
m
o
d
e
l
.
A
s
p
r
e
v
i
o
u
s
l
y
d
i
s
c
u
s
s
e
d
i
n
T
a
b
l
e
s
1
a
n
d
2
,
t
h
e
m
o
d
e
l
’
s
t
r
a
i
n
i
n
g
p
h
a
s
e
w
as
n
u
m
e
r
i
ca
l
ly
v
a
l
i
d
a
t
e
d
.
T
o
v
i
s
u
al
i
z
e
t
h
e
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e
o
f
t
h
e
AR
I
MA
(
2
,
1
,
1
)
m
o
d
e
l
,
F
i
g
u
r
e
3
p
l
o
t
s
t
h
e
h
is
t
o
r
i
c
al
a
n
d
f
o
r
e
c
ast
e
d
d
e
n
g
u
e
c
a
s
e
d
a
t
a
.
F
o
r
m
o
d
e
l
t
es
t
i
n
g
,
3
0
%
o
f
t
h
e
d
a
t
as
e
t
,
s
t
a
r
ti
n
g
f
r
o
m
m
i
d
-
2
0
2
2
t
h
r
o
u
g
h
t
h
e
r
e
m
a
i
n
d
e
r
o
f
2
0
2
4
,
w
a
s
u
s
e
d
,
as
i
n
d
i
c
at
e
d
b
y
t
h
e
o
r
a
n
g
e
l
i
n
e
i
n
t
h
e
f
i
g
u
r
e
.
T
h
e
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
e
d
d
e
n
g
u
e
c
a
s
e
s
,
g
e
n
e
r
a
t
e
d
u
s
i
n
g
t
h
e
t
r
a
i
n
e
d
AR
I
M
A
m
o
d
e
l
,
a
r
e
s
h
a
d
e
d
i
n
d
a
r
k
b
l
u
e
.
T
h
i
s
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
wa
s
d
e
r
i
v
e
d
b
y
a
p
p
l
y
i
n
g
t
h
e
m
o
d
e
l
t
o
t
h
e
t
e
s
t
d
a
t
a
s
et
(
3
0
%
)
,
a
n
d
t
h
e
r
es
u
l
ti
n
g
p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n
s
cl
o
s
el
y
a
l
i
g
n
wi
th
t
h
e
h
i
s
t
o
r
ic
a
l
d
at
a
,
d
e
m
o
n
s
t
r
a
t
i
n
g
t
h
e
A
R
I
M
A
m
o
d
e
l
’
s
e
f
f
e
c
ti
v
e
n
e
s
s
i
n
a
cc
u
r
a
t
e
ly
p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
n
g
f
u
t
u
r
e
d
e
n
g
u
e
c
a
s
es
.
Alth
o
u
g
h
th
e
m
o
d
el
ca
p
tu
r
es
th
e
o
v
er
all
tr
en
d
,
its
p
r
ed
ictiv
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
is
lim
ited
,
as
i
t
f
ails
to
p
r
ec
is
ely
m
atch
th
e
ac
tu
al
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
e
n
u
m
b
e
r
s
.
Desp
ite
th
ese
lim
itatio
n
s
,
th
e
m
o
d
el
s
u
cc
ess
f
u
lly
id
en
tifie
s
an
d
p
r
o
jects
th
e
g
en
e
r
al
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
o
f
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
es.
A
n
o
tab
le
d
ev
iatio
n
o
cc
u
r
s
in
2
0
2
4
,
w
h
er
e
a
s
h
ar
p
in
cr
ea
s
e
(
o
r
a
n
g
e
li
n
e)
in
p
r
e
d
i
cted
ca
s
es
s
tan
d
s
o
u
t.
T
h
is
s
h
i
f
t
ca
n
b
e
p
ar
tially
attr
ib
u
te
d
t
o
th
e
r
ed
u
ce
d
ca
s
e
n
u
m
b
er
s
o
b
s
er
v
ed
f
r
o
m
2
0
1
9
to
2
0
2
3
.
Du
r
i
n
g
th
e
C
OVI
D
-
1
9
p
an
d
em
ic,
p
e
o
p
le
wer
e
less
lik
ely
to
s
ee
k
h
o
s
p
ital
ca
r
e
f
o
r
d
en
g
u
e
s
y
m
p
to
m
s
[
1
7
]
,
eith
e
r
d
u
e
to
f
ea
r
o
f
v
ir
u
s
ex
p
o
s
u
r
e
[
1
8
]
o
r
r
estrictio
n
s
o
n
h
o
s
p
ital
ad
m
is
s
io
n
s
[
1
9
]
.
T
h
is
led
to
an
u
n
d
er
r
ep
o
r
tin
g
o
f
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
es
d
u
r
in
g
th
is
p
er
io
d
,
ca
u
s
in
g
th
e
d
ata
to
r
ef
lect
u
n
u
s
u
a
lly
lo
w
co
u
n
ts
[
2
0
]
.
A
s
a
r
esu
lt,
th
e
m
o
d
el,
wh
ich
r
elies
h
ea
v
ily
o
n
h
is
to
r
ical
tr
e
n
d
s
,
m
ay
p
r
o
ject
a
s
u
r
g
e
in
ca
s
es
p
o
s
t
-
p
an
d
em
ic
d
u
e
to
th
e
d
ata
d
is
cr
ep
an
cies
.
T
h
is
s
p
ik
e
em
p
h
asizes
th
e
c
h
allen
g
es
o
f
u
s
in
g
h
is
to
r
ical
d
ata
f
r
o
m
ir
r
e
g
u
lar
p
er
io
d
s
f
o
r
ac
c
u
r
ate
p
r
e
d
ictio
n
s
.
Ad
d
itio
n
ally
,
en
v
ir
o
n
m
en
tal
an
d
clim
atic
f
ac
to
r
s
,
s
u
ch
as
r
ain
f
all
an
d
te
m
p
er
atu
r
e,
wer
e
n
o
t
in
c
o
r
p
o
r
a
ted
in
to
th
e
m
o
d
el.
I
n
teg
r
atin
g
th
ese
v
ar
iab
les
in
f
u
tu
r
e
s
tu
d
ies
m
ay
im
p
r
o
v
e
p
r
ed
ictio
n
p
r
ec
is
io
n
[
2
1
]
.
L
a
s
tly
,
th
e
m
o
d
el
is
m
o
r
e
ef
f
e
ct
iv
e
f
o
r
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
b
u
t
m
ay
r
eq
u
ir
e
r
e
ca
lib
r
atio
n
if
ap
p
lied
b
e
y
o
n
d
a
f
ew
y
ea
r
s
d
u
e
to
ev
o
lv
in
g
d
is
ea
s
e
tr
an
s
m
is
s
io
n
d
y
n
am
ics.
Nev
er
t
h
eless
,
th
e
m
o
d
el
o
f
f
er
s
v
alu
a
b
le
in
s
ig
h
t
in
t
o
p
o
ten
tial
ca
s
e
tr
e
n
d
s
,
h
i
g
h
li
g
h
tin
g
th
e
n
ee
d
f
o
r
ca
u
tio
u
s
in
ter
p
r
etatio
n
wh
en
a
n
aly
zin
g
p
an
d
em
ic
-
e
r
a
d
ata
f
o
r
f
u
tu
r
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
2
5
2
-
8
7
7
6
I
n
t J I
n
f
&
C
o
m
m
u
n
T
ec
h
n
o
l
,
Vo
l.
1
5
,
No
.
1
,
Ma
r
ch
20
2
6
:
46
-
56
52
Fig
u
r
e
3
.
C
o
m
p
a
r
is
o
n
o
f
ac
tu
a
l a
n
d
f
o
r
ec
asted
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es in
Pan
g
asin
an
u
s
in
g
AR
I
MA
(
2
,
1
,
1
)
3
.
2
.
2
.
ARIM
A
m
o
del e
v
a
lua
t
io
n
T
o
ev
alu
ate
th
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
o
f
th
e
AR
I
MA
(
2
,
1
,
1
)
m
o
d
el,
th
e
f
o
llo
win
g
s
tatis
tica
l
m
e
tr
ics
wer
e
u
tili
ze
d
:
m
ea
n
er
r
o
r
(
ME
)
,
R
MSE
,
MA
E
,
m
ea
n
p
er
ce
n
tag
e
er
r
o
r
(
MPE
)
,
MA
PE
,
MA
SE
,
an
d
th
e
AC
F
.
T
h
ese
m
etr
ics
ar
e
wid
ely
ac
ce
p
ted
f
o
r
ass
ess
in
g
f
o
r
ec
ast
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
an
ce
,
p
a
r
ticu
lar
ly
f
o
r
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
els,
as
th
ey
m
ea
s
u
r
e
p
r
ed
ictio
n
ac
cu
r
ac
y
an
d
o
f
f
er
in
s
ig
h
ts
in
to
er
r
o
r
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
[
2
2
]
,
[
2
3
]
.
T
a
b
le
3
p
r
esen
ts
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
ac
cu
r
ac
y
r
esu
lts
b
ased
o
n
th
ese
m
etr
ics.
T
ab
le
3
.
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
ac
c
u
r
ac
y
r
esu
lts
an
d
ev
alu
atio
n
m
et
r
ics
ME
R
M
S
E
M
A
E
M
P
E
M
A
P
E
M
A
S
E
A
C
F
1
-
0.
0
5
8
4
6
3
3
1
.
1
4
2
6
2
1
0
.
7
4
0
1
2
4
1
8
.
6
2
1
9
7
6
2
1
.
6
9
5
5
5
0
.
2
7
3
3
2
2
7
0
.
1
4
2
5
3
3
9
W
ith
a
ME
o
f
-
0
.
0
5
8
an
d
a
l
o
w
MA
E
o
f
0
.
7
4
0
,
th
e
m
o
d
el
s
h
o
ws
m
in
im
al
b
ias
an
d
k
ee
p
s
av
er
ag
e
er
r
o
r
s
r
elativ
ely
s
m
all,
s
u
g
g
e
s
tin
g
r
eliab
le
p
r
ed
ictiv
e
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
.
T
h
e
R
MSE
o
f
1
.
1
4
3
in
d
icate
s
s
lig
h
tly
lar
g
er
er
r
o
r
s
ar
e
p
r
esen
t
b
u
t
s
till
with
in
an
ac
ce
p
tab
le
r
an
g
e.
A
MA
PE
o
f
2
1
.
7
0
%
s
u
g
g
ests
m
o
d
er
ate
ac
cu
r
ac
y
,
with
f
o
r
ec
asted
v
al
u
es
d
ev
iatin
g
b
y
an
av
er
a
g
e
o
f
2
1
.
7
0
%
f
r
o
m
ac
tu
al
o
b
s
er
v
atio
n
s
,
wh
i
ch
is
g
en
er
ally
ac
ce
p
tab
le
in
f
o
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
b
u
t
co
u
ld
b
e
im
p
r
o
v
e
d
.
T
h
e
MA
SE
o
f
0
.
2
7
3
in
d
icate
s
th
at
th
e
m
o
d
el
is
s
ig
n
if
ican
tly
m
o
r
e
ac
c
u
r
ate
t
h
an
a
n
aiv
e
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
,
wh
ile
th
e
lo
w
a
u
to
co
r
r
elatio
n
(
AC
F1
=
0
.
1
4
3
)
s
h
o
ws
th
at
r
esid
u
als ar
e
m
o
s
tly
p
atter
n
-
f
r
ee
,
im
p
ly
in
g
a
g
o
o
d
f
it to
th
e
d
ata
’
s
u
n
d
er
l
y
in
g
s
tr
u
ctu
r
e.
T
o
f
u
r
th
er
ev
al
u
ate
th
e
d
e
v
elo
p
ed
m
o
d
el,
th
e
MA
PE
is
u
tili
ze
d
as
a
k
ey
m
etr
ic
in
ca
lcu
latin
g
th
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
p
e
r
ce
n
tag
e
o
f
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asted
r
esu
lts
.
T
h
e
p
er
ce
n
tag
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
ca
n
th
en
b
e
d
e
r
iv
e
d
as
(
3
)
:
(
%
)
=
100
−
(
%
)
=
100
−
21
.
69555
(
3
)
(
%
)
=
78
.
30445%
So
,
b
ased
o
n
th
e
MA
PE
o
f
2
1
.
7
0
%,
th
e
co
m
p
u
ted
ac
c
u
r
ac
y
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at,
o
n
av
er
a
g
e,
t
h
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
f
o
r
ec
asts
ar
e
ac
cu
r
ate
in
ca
p
tu
r
in
g
a
b
o
u
t
7
8
.
3
0
%
o
f
th
e
ac
tu
al
v
ar
iatio
n
in
d
en
g
u
e
c
ases
.
T
h
is
lev
el
o
f
ac
cu
r
ac
y
is
g
en
e
r
ally
ac
ce
p
t
ab
le,
th
o
u
g
h
th
e
ac
ce
p
tab
le
th
r
esh
o
ld
o
f
ten
d
e
p
en
d
s
o
n
th
e
f
ield
an
d
th
e
cr
iticality
o
f
p
r
ed
ictio
n
s
.
Ma
ch
in
e
lear
n
in
g
is
s
u
b
jectiv
e,
an
d
h
av
in
g
a
p
r
ed
ictiv
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
ab
o
v
e
7
0
%
is
alr
ea
d
y
co
n
s
id
er
ed
a
g
r
ea
t
m
o
d
el
[
2
4
]
.
Kästn
er
[
2
5
]
claim
s
th
at
a
m
o
d
el
’
s
ac
cu
r
ac
y
d
e
p
en
d
s
en
tire
ly
o
n
th
e
p
r
o
b
lem
,
an
d
an
ac
cu
r
ac
y
r
an
g
e
o
f
7
0
%
-
9
0
%
is
n
o
t
o
n
ly
r
e
alis
tic
b
u
t
also
co
n
s
id
er
e
d
u
s
e
f
u
l
an
d
in
s
ig
h
tf
u
l.
W
h
ile
th
e
MA
PE
o
f
2
1
.
7
0
%
r
ef
lects
s
o
m
e
d
e
g
r
ee
o
f
er
r
o
r
,
it
in
d
icate
s
th
at
th
e
m
o
d
el
is
s
till
v
alu
ab
le
f
o
r
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
tr
en
d
s
an
d
p
r
o
v
id
i
n
g
ac
tio
n
ab
le
in
s
ig
h
ts
f
o
r
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
d
ec
is
io
n
-
m
ak
in
g
.
T
h
e
f
in
d
in
g
s
o
f
th
is
s
tu
d
y
also
alig
n
with
p
r
e
v
io
u
s
r
esear
ch
d
em
o
n
s
tr
atin
g
t
h
e
ef
f
ec
tiv
e
n
ess
o
f
AR
I
MA
in
in
f
ec
tio
u
s
d
is
ea
s
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
.
Fo
r
i
n
s
tan
ce
,
Oth
m
an
et
a
l.
[
8
]
ap
p
lied
AR
I
M
A
to
d
en
g
u
e
in
ci
d
en
ce
in
Su
r
ab
ay
a
a
n
d
ac
h
iev
e
d
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
t J I
n
f
&
C
o
m
m
u
n
T
ec
h
n
o
l
I
SS
N:
2252
-
8
7
7
6
E
xp
lo
r
a
to
r
y
d
a
ta
a
n
a
lysi
s
a
n
d
fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
o
f d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
ks in
P
a
n
g
a
s
in
a
n
…
(
P
a
tr
ick
Mo
le
)
53
s
im
ilar
s
ea
s
o
n
al
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
ac
cu
r
ac
y
,
c
o
n
f
ir
m
in
g
AR
I
MA
’
s
r
o
b
u
s
tn
ess
in
ca
p
tu
r
i
n
g
p
er
io
d
ic
tr
en
d
s
.
L
ik
ewise,
s
ev
er
al
s
tu
d
ies
[
2
6
]
,
[
2
7
]
f
o
u
n
d
th
at
AR
I
MA
p
er
f
o
r
m
e
d
co
m
p
ar
a
b
ly
to
L
S
T
M
f
o
r
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
in
f
ec
tio
u
s
d
is
ea
s
e
p
r
ed
ictio
n
,
f
u
r
th
er
v
alid
atin
g
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
s
u
itab
ilit
y
f
o
r
d
en
g
u
e
f
o
r
e
ca
s
tin
g
in
r
eso
u
r
ce
-
lim
ited
s
ettin
g
s
.
Ho
wev
er
,
u
n
lik
e
n
atio
n
al
-
s
ca
le
m
o
d
els
th
at
g
en
er
alize
tr
en
d
s
,
th
is
s
tu
d
y
f
o
cu
s
ed
o
n
m
u
n
icip
al
-
lev
el
p
r
ed
ictio
n
s
,
al
lo
win
g
f
o
r
tar
g
eted
i
n
ter
v
en
tio
n
s
at
a
g
r
an
u
lar
lev
el.
3
.
2
.
3
.
F
o
re
ca
s
t
ing
deng
ue
o
u
t
brea
k
s
in P
a
ng
a
s
ina
n us
ing
ARIM
A
m
o
del
W
h
ile
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
m
ay
n
o
t
b
e
f
lawless
,
it
o
f
f
er
s
v
alu
ab
le
in
s
ig
h
ts
in
to
th
e
g
en
er
al
tr
en
d
s
an
d
p
atter
n
s
o
f
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
in
Pan
g
asin
an
f
r
o
m
2
0
1
9
to
2
0
2
4
.
T
h
e
clo
s
e
alig
n
m
en
t
b
et
wee
n
th
e
o
b
s
er
v
ed
an
d
p
r
e
d
icted
ca
s
es
in
th
e
t
esti
n
g
p
er
io
d
(
as
s
ee
n
in
Fig
u
r
e
3
)
h
ig
h
lig
h
ts
th
e
m
o
d
e
l
’
s
ef
f
ec
tiv
en
ess
in
ca
p
tu
r
in
g
k
e
y
tem
p
o
r
al
p
atter
n
s
.
T
h
e
m
o
d
el
p
r
o
v
id
es
u
s
ef
u
l
f
o
r
ec
asts
f
o
r
f
u
tu
r
e
d
e
n
g
u
e
c
ases
,
th
o
u
g
h
it
m
a
y
n
o
t a
lway
s
ca
p
tu
r
e
s
u
d
d
en
s
p
i
k
es o
r
an
o
m
alies.
T
o
f
u
r
th
er
e
v
alu
ate
its
u
tili
ty
,
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
was
ap
p
lied
to
f
o
r
ec
ast d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es in
Pan
g
asin
an
f
o
r
t
h
e
y
ea
r
2
0
2
5
.
T
h
is
f
o
r
e
ca
s
t
b
u
ild
s
o
n
th
e
h
is
to
r
ical
tr
en
d
s
o
b
s
er
v
ed
in
th
e
p
r
ev
i
o
u
s
y
ea
r
s
,
o
f
f
er
in
g
p
r
o
jectio
n
s
th
at
alig
n
with
s
ea
s
o
n
al
f
lu
ctu
atio
n
s
in
d
en
g
u
e
i
n
cid
en
ce
.
Fig
u
r
e
4
p
r
esen
ts
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
p
r
ed
icted
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es f
o
r
2
0
2
5
,
h
ig
h
lig
h
tin
g
th
e
e
x
p
ec
ted
s
e
aso
n
al
p
e
ak
s
an
d
v
ar
iatio
n
s
in
ca
s
e
co
u
n
ts
.
Fig
u
r
e
4
.
Fo
r
ec
asted
d
en
g
u
e
c
ases
in
Pan
g
asin
an
f
o
r
th
e
y
ea
r
2
0
2
5
T
h
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
’
s
f
o
r
ec
as
t
f
o
r
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
es
in
Pan
g
asi
n
an
in
2
0
2
5
r
ev
ea
ls
a
clea
r
a
n
ticip
ated
r
is
e,
co
n
s
is
ten
t
with
th
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
s
o
b
s
er
v
ed
in
p
r
ev
i
o
u
s
y
ea
r
s
.
As
s
ee
n
in
th
e
Fig
u
r
e
4
,
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asted
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es sh
o
w
a
g
r
ad
u
al
u
p
war
d
tr
en
d
b
eg
in
n
in
g
in
th
e
m
id
d
le
o
f
th
e
y
ea
r
an
d
r
ea
c
h
i
n
g
a
n
o
tab
le
p
ea
k
in
th
e
latter
h
alf
o
f
th
e
y
ea
r
2
0
2
5
.
T
h
is
p
atter
n
m
ir
r
o
r
s
h
is
to
r
i
ca
l
d
ata,
wh
er
e
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
ten
d
to
s
u
r
g
e
d
u
r
in
g
th
e
r
ain
y
s
ea
s
o
n
wh
en
en
v
ir
o
n
m
en
tal
co
n
d
itio
n
s
f
av
o
r
m
o
s
q
u
ito
b
r
ee
d
in
g
.
T
h
e
f
o
r
ec
asted
tr
en
d
h
ig
h
lig
h
ts
th
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
ab
ilit
y
to
ca
p
tu
r
e
th
e
s
e
r
ec
u
r
r
in
g
s
ea
s
o
n
al
f
lu
ctu
ati
o
n
s
,
p
r
o
jectin
g
an
in
cr
ea
s
e
i
n
ca
s
es
as
f
av
o
r
ab
le
co
n
d
it
io
n
s
ac
cu
m
u
late
o
v
e
r
tim
e.
T
o
f
u
r
th
er
ex
p
l
o
r
e
t
h
e
m
o
d
el
’
s
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
in
a
m
o
r
e
d
etailed
tim
e
co
n
tex
t,
th
e
r
esear
ch
er
s
ap
p
lied
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
to
f
o
r
ec
ast
m
o
n
th
l
y
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
f
o
r
2
0
2
5
.
B
u
ild
in
g
u
p
o
n
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asted
r
is
e
in
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
f
o
r
th
e
latter
h
alf
o
f
2
0
2
5
(
as
s
h
o
wn
in
Fig
u
r
e
4
)
,
Fig
u
r
e
5
p
r
o
v
id
es
a
m
o
r
e
g
r
a
n
u
lar
v
iew
b
y
p
r
esen
tin
g
th
e
p
r
ed
icted
m
o
n
th
ly
d
e
n
g
u
e
ca
s
es
in
Pan
g
asin
an
h
ig
h
lig
h
tin
g
th
e
ex
ac
t
p
er
io
d
s
th
at
m
ay
ex
p
er
ien
ce
th
e
h
ig
h
est
ca
s
e
co
u
n
ts
.
T
h
is
d
etai
led
b
r
ea
k
d
o
wn
allo
ws
to
p
i
n
p
o
in
t
th
e
s
p
ec
if
ic
m
o
n
t
h
s
wh
en
th
e
p
ea
k
in
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es is
ex
p
ec
ted
to
o
cc
u
r
,
o
f
f
er
in
g
a
clea
r
er
p
ictu
r
e
o
f
th
e
a
n
ticip
ated
s
ea
s
o
n
al
f
lu
ctu
atio
n
s
.
I
n
Fig
u
r
e
5
,
th
e
g
r
a
p
h
s
h
o
ws
a
s
u
b
s
tan
tial
r
is
e
in
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
d
u
r
in
g
th
e
latter
p
ar
t
o
f
2
0
2
5
,
with
a
s
tead
y
in
cr
ea
s
e
b
e
g
in
n
in
g
in
Au
g
u
s
t
an
d
r
ea
ch
in
g
a
p
ea
k
i
n
Octo
b
er
.
T
h
e
d
ev
el
o
p
ed
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
a
p
p
ea
r
s
ef
f
ec
tiv
e
in
ca
p
tu
r
in
g
th
e
s
ea
s
o
n
ality
an
d
c
y
clica
l
n
atu
r
e
o
f
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
b
y
p
r
o
jectin
g
a
p
ea
k
p
er
io
d
th
at
alig
n
s
with
o
b
s
er
v
ed
h
is
to
r
ic
al
tr
en
d
s
.
T
h
is
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at
th
e
m
o
d
el
ac
cu
r
ately
i
n
co
r
p
o
r
ates
p
ast
s
ea
s
o
n
al
f
lu
ctu
atio
n
s
to
an
ticip
ate
f
u
tu
r
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
.
B
y
ac
cu
r
ately
p
r
ed
ictin
g
th
e
h
ig
h
-
r
is
k
m
o
n
th
s
,
th
e
m
o
d
el
d
em
o
n
s
tr
ates
its
u
tili
ty
in
g
u
id
in
g
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
r
esp
o
n
s
es,
allo
win
g
f
o
r
tar
g
eted
in
ter
v
en
tio
n
s
in
a
n
ticip
a
tio
n
o
f
p
ea
k
d
en
g
u
e
p
e
r
io
d
s
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
2
5
2
-
8
7
7
6
I
n
t J I
n
f
&
C
o
m
m
u
n
T
ec
h
n
o
l
,
Vo
l.
1
5
,
No
.
1
,
Ma
r
ch
20
2
6
:
46
-
56
54
Fu
r
th
er
m
o
r
e
,
to
ass
is
t
lo
ca
l h
e
alth
u
n
its
in
th
eir
p
r
ep
ar
ed
n
es
s
ef
f
o
r
ts
,
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
was a
p
p
lied
to
f
o
r
ec
ast
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
at
t
h
e
m
u
n
icip
al
lev
el.
Fig
u
r
e
6
p
r
esen
ts
th
ese
f
o
r
ec
asts
,
r
an
k
in
g
m
u
n
icip
alities
b
ased
o
n
p
r
o
jecte
d
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
f
o
r
2
0
2
5
,
f
r
o
m
th
e
h
ig
h
est
to
t
h
e
lo
west.
T
h
is
d
etailed
b
r
ea
k
d
o
wn
n
o
t
o
n
ly
r
ein
f
o
r
ce
s
t
h
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
tr
e
n
d
s
o
b
s
er
v
e
d
in
th
e
o
v
e
r
all
p
r
o
v
i
n
cial
f
o
r
ec
ast
b
u
t
also
p
r
o
v
id
es
a
m
o
r
e
g
r
an
u
lar
v
iew,
id
en
tify
in
g
wh
ich
m
u
n
ic
ip
alities
ar
e
m
o
s
t l
ik
ely
to
ex
p
er
ien
ce
th
e
h
ig
h
est d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
.
Fig
u
r
e
5
.
Fo
r
ec
asted
m
o
n
th
l
y
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es f
o
r
2
0
2
5
(
T
o
tal
f
o
r
all
m
u
n
icip
alities
)
Fig
u
r
e
6
.
Fo
r
ec
asted
d
en
g
u
e
c
ases
p
er
m
u
n
icip
ality
in
2
0
2
5
(
Hig
h
est to
L
o
west)
T
h
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
ap
p
ea
r
s
t
o
p
er
f
o
r
m
well
in
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es,
as
its
p
r
ed
ictio
n
s
f
o
r
2
0
2
5
clo
s
ely
alig
n
with
h
is
to
r
ical
p
atter
n
s
o
b
s
er
v
ed
f
r
o
m
2
0
1
9
to
2
0
2
4
.
T
h
e
m
u
n
icip
alities
p
r
o
j
ec
ted
to
h
av
e
h
ig
h
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
in
2
0
2
5
—
s
u
ch
as
B
ay
am
b
an
g
,
L
in
g
ay
en
,
San
C
ar
lo
s
C
ity
,
Ma
lasi
q
u
i,
an
d
B
u
g
allo
n
—
ar
e
co
n
s
is
ten
t
wh
en
co
m
p
ar
ed
with
th
e
ar
ea
s
th
at
h
is
to
r
ically
r
ec
o
r
d
ed
h
ig
h
er
ca
s
es,
esp
ec
ially
d
u
r
in
g
p
ea
k
m
o
n
th
s
.
Mu
n
ici
p
alities
lik
e
Ur
d
an
eta
C
ity
,
San
ta
B
ar
b
ar
a,
an
d
Alam
in
o
s
C
ity
ar
e
in
th
e
m
o
d
e
r
ate
-
r
is
k
ca
teg
o
r
y
,
wh
ile
ar
ea
s
s
u
ch
as
Ag
n
o
,
B
u
r
g
o
s
,
an
d
I
n
f
an
ta
s
h
o
w
lo
w
p
r
e
d
icted
ca
s
e
co
u
n
ts
,
r
e
f
lectin
g
h
is
to
r
ically
lo
wer
in
cid
en
ce
lev
els.
T
h
is
alig
n
m
en
t
s
u
g
g
ests
th
at
th
e
m
o
d
el
ef
f
ec
t
iv
ely
ca
p
tu
r
es
th
e
u
n
d
er
ly
i
n
g
s
ea
s
o
n
al
an
d
g
eo
g
r
ap
h
ical
tr
en
d
s
in
d
en
g
u
e
in
c
id
en
ce
,
r
ein
f
o
r
cin
g
its
r
eliab
il
ity
f
o
r
id
e
n
tify
in
g
h
ig
h
-
r
is
k
m
u
n
icip
alities
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
t J I
n
f
&
C
o
m
m
u
n
T
ec
h
n
o
l
I
SS
N:
2252
-
8
7
7
6
E
xp
lo
r
a
to
r
y
d
a
ta
a
n
a
lysi
s
a
n
d
fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
o
f d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
ks in
P
a
n
g
a
s
in
a
n
…
(
P
a
tr
ick
Mo
le
)
55
4.
CO
NCLU
SI
O
N
T
h
is
s
tu
d
y
s
u
cc
ess
f
u
lly
d
ev
elo
p
ed
an
d
v
alid
ated
an
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
f
o
r
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
in
Pan
g
asin
an
,
u
tili
zin
g
h
is
to
r
ical
d
ata
f
r
o
m
2
0
1
9
to
2
0
2
4
.
T
h
e
m
o
d
el
d
e
m
o
n
s
tr
ated
r
e
aso
n
ab
le
p
r
e
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ictiv
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ac
cu
r
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y
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h
iev
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g
a
n
a
v
er
ag
e
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o
r
ec
ast
a
cc
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r
ac
y
o
f
7
8
.
3
%,
an
d
ef
f
ec
tiv
el
y
ca
p
tu
r
in
g
th
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
tr
en
d
s
o
f
d
en
g
u
e
i
n
cid
en
ce
in
t
h
e
r
eg
i
o
n
.
T
h
e
r
esu
lts
h
ig
h
lig
h
ted
p
o
t
en
tial
in
cr
ea
s
es
in
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
es
f
o
r
th
e
y
ea
r
2
0
2
5
,
p
ar
ticu
lar
ly
d
u
r
in
g
p
ea
k
r
ain
y
m
o
n
t
h
s
,
alig
n
in
g
with
o
b
s
er
v
ed
h
is
to
r
ical
p
atter
n
s
.
A
d
d
itio
n
ally
,
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asts
id
en
tifie
d
h
ig
h
-
r
is
k
m
u
n
icip
ali
ties
,
o
f
f
er
in
g
ac
tio
n
ab
le
i
n
s
ig
h
ts
f
o
r
tar
g
eted
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
in
ter
v
en
tio
n
s
.
T
h
ese
f
in
d
in
g
s
im
p
ly
t
h
at
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
is
a
v
alu
ab
le
to
o
l
f
o
r
an
ticip
atin
g
d
en
g
u
e
o
u
t
b
r
ea
k
s
,
p
r
o
v
id
in
g
a
r
eliab
le
b
asis
f
o
r
p
r
o
ac
tiv
e
p
l
an
n
in
g
an
d
r
eso
u
r
ce
allo
ca
tio
n
.
B
y
e
n
ab
lin
g
tim
ely
id
en
tifi
ca
tio
n
o
f
h
i
g
h
-
r
is
k
p
er
io
d
s
a
n
d
lo
ca
tio
n
s
,
th
is
m
o
d
el
ca
n
e
n
h
an
ce
p
u
b
lic
h
ea
lth
r
esp
o
n
s
es,
r
ed
u
ce
t
h
e
b
u
r
d
en
o
f
d
e
n
g
u
e
o
u
tb
r
ea
k
s
,
a
n
d
c
o
n
tr
ib
u
te
t
o
m
o
r
e
ef
f
ec
tiv
e
d
is
ea
s
e
p
r
ev
en
tio
n
s
tr
ateg
ies in
Pan
g
asin
an
.
F
UNDING
I
NF
O
R
M
A
T
I
O
N
Au
th
o
r
s
s
tate
n
o
f
u
n
d
in
g
in
v
o
lv
ed
.
AUTHO
R
CO
NT
RI
B
UT
I
O
NS ST
A
T
E
M
E
N
T
T
h
is
jo
u
r
n
al
u
s
es
th
e
C
o
n
tr
ib
u
to
r
R
o
les
T
ax
o
n
o
m
y
(
C
R
ed
iT)
to
r
ec
o
g
n
ize
in
d
iv
id
u
al
au
th
o
r
co
n
tr
ib
u
tio
n
s
,
r
ed
u
ce
au
th
o
r
s
h
ip
d
is
p
u
tes,
an
d
f
ac
ilit
ate
co
llab
o
r
atio
n
.
Na
m
e
o
f
Aut
ho
r
C
M
So
Va
Fo
I
R
D
O
E
Vi
Su
P
Fu
Patr
ick
Mo
le
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
T
h
elm
a
Palao
ag
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
C
:
C
o
n
c
e
p
t
u
a
l
i
z
a
t
i
o
n
M
:
M
e
t
h
o
d
o
l
o
g
y
So
:
So
f
t
w
a
r
e
Va
:
Va
l
i
d
a
t
i
o
n
Fo
:
Fo
r
mal
a
n
a
l
y
s
i
s
I
:
I
n
v
e
s
t
i
g
a
t
i
o
n
R
:
R
e
so
u
r
c
e
s
D
:
D
a
t
a
C
u
r
a
t
i
o
n
O
:
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r
i
t
i
n
g
-
O
r
i
g
i
n
a
l
D
r
a
f
t
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:
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r
i
t
i
n
g
-
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e
v
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e
w
&
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d
i
t
i
n
g
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:
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su
a
l
i
z
a
t
i
o
n
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:
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p
e
r
v
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s
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n
P
:
P
r
o
j
e
c
t
a
d
mi
n
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st
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a
t
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n
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:
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n
d
i
n
g
a
c
q
u
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si
t
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o
n
CO
NF
L
I
C
T
O
F
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N
T
E
R
E
S
T
ST
A
T
E
M
E
NT
Au
th
o
r
s
s
tate
n
o
co
n
f
lict o
f
in
t
er
est.
DATA AV
AI
L
AB
I
L
I
T
Y
T
h
e
d
en
g
u
e
ca
s
e
d
ata
th
at
s
u
p
p
o
r
t
th
e
f
in
d
in
g
s
o
f
t
h
is
s
tu
d
y
wer
e
o
b
tain
ed
f
r
o
m
th
e
Pro
v
in
cial
E
p
id
em
io
lo
g
y
an
d
Su
r
v
eilla
n
ce
Un
it
o
f
Pan
g
asin
an
,
Ph
ilip
p
in
es.
T
h
ese
d
ata
ar
e
av
ailab
le
f
r
o
m
t
h
e
co
r
r
esp
o
n
d
in
g
a
u
th
o
r
u
p
o
n
r
ea
s
o
n
ab
le
r
eq
u
est.
RE
F
E
R
E
NC
E
S
[
1
]
M
.
B
.
K
h
a
n
,
Z.
S
.
Y
a
n
g
,
C
.
Y
.
Li
n
,
M
.
C
.
H
s
u
,
A
.
N
.
U
r
b
i
n
a
,
W
.
A
ssa
v
a
l
a
p
sak
u
l
,
a
n
d
S
.
F
.
W
a
n
g
,
“
D
e
n
g
u
e
o
v
e
r
v
i
e
w
:
a
n
u
p
d
a
t
e
d
sy
st
e
mi
c
r
e
v
i
e
w
,
”
J
o
u
r
n
a
l
o
f
I
n
f
e
c
t
i
o
n
a
n
d
Pu
b
l
i
c
H
e
a
l
t
h
,
v
o
l
.
1
6
,
n
o
.
1
0
,
A
u
g
.
2
0
2
3
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
1
0
1
6
/
j
.
j
i
p
h
.
2
0
2
3
.
0
8
.
0
0
1
.
[
2
]
W
o
r
l
d
M
o
sq
u
i
t
o
P
r
o
g
r
a
m,
“
D
e
n
g
u
e
|
W
o
r
l
d
M
o
s
q
u
i
t
o
P
r
o
g
r
a
m,
”
Wo
rl
d
m
o
s
q
u
i
t
o
p
r
o
g
ra
m
.
o
rg
,
2
0
1
9
.
h
t
t
p
s
:
/
/
w
w
w
.
w
o
r
l
d
m
o
s
q
u
i
t
o
p
r
o
g
r
a
m.
o
r
g
/
e
n
/
l
e
a
r
n
/
mo
s
q
u
i
t
o
-
b
o
r
n
e
-
d
i
s
e
a
se
s/
d
e
n
g
u
e
[
3
]
S
.
S
a
n
g
k
a
e
w
,
D
.
M
i
n
g
,
A
.
B
o
o
n
y
a
si
r
i
,
K
.
H
o
n
e
y
f
o
r
d
,
S
.
K
a
l
a
y
a
n
a
r
o
o
j
,
a
n
d
A
.
H
o
l
m
e
s,
“
R
i
s
k
p
r
e
d
i
c
t
o
r
s
o
f
p
r
o
g
r
e
ssi
o
n
t
o
s
e
v
e
r
e
d
i
s
e
a
se
d
u
r
i
n
g
t
h
e
f
e
b
r
i
l
e
p
h
a
s
e
o
f
d
e
n
g
u
e
:
a
s
y
st
e
ma
t
i
c
r
e
v
i
e
w
a
n
d
met
a
-
a
n
a
l
y
s
i
s,
”
T
h
e
L
a
n
c
e
t
I
n
f
e
c
t
i
o
u
s Dise
a
ses
,
v
o
l
.
2
1
,
n
o
.
7
,
p
p
.
1
0
1
4
–
1
0
2
6
,
Ju
l
.
2
0
2
1
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
1
0
1
6
/
s
1
4
7
3
-
3
0
9
9
(
2
0
)
3
0
6
0
1
-
0.
[
4
]
V
.
K
a
y
c
e
e
,
“
D
O
H
w
o
r
r
i
e
d
a
s
d
e
n
g
u
e
c
a
ses
r
i
se
b
y
6
8
%,
”
R
APPLE
R
,
S
e
p
.
1
7
,
2
0
2
4
.
h
t
t
p
s:
/
/
w
w
w
.
r
a
p
p
l
e
r
.
c
o
m
/
p
h
i
l
i
p
p
i
n
e
s
/
d
o
h
-
r
e
p
o
r
t
-
d
e
n
g
u
e
-
c
a
ses
-
se
p
t
e
m
b
e
r
-
6
-
2
0
2
4
/
[
5
]
“
D
O
H
:
d
e
n
g
u
e
c
a
ses
l
o
w
e
r
i
n
r
e
c
e
n
t
w
e
e
k
s
-
D
e
p
a
r
t
me
n
t
o
f
H
e
a
l
t
h
,
”
D
e
p
a
rt
m
e
n
t
o
f
H
e
a
l
t
h
,
2
0
2
4
.
h
t
t
p
s:
/
/
d
o
h
.
g
o
v
.
p
h
/
p
r
e
ss
-
r
e
l
e
a
se/
d
o
h
-
d
e
n
g
u
e
-
c
a
s
e
s
-
l
o
w
e
r
-
in
-
r
e
c
e
n
t
-
w
e
e
k
s
/
[
6
]
H.
A
u
st
r
i
a
,
“
D
e
n
g
u
e
c
a
ses
i
n
P
a
n
g
a
s
i
n
a
n
p
o
st
s
5
2
%
a
n
n
u
a
l
j
u
mp
f
r
o
m
Ja
n
.
1
t
o
A
u
g
.
5
|
P
h
i
l
i
p
p
i
n
e
N
e
w
s
A
g
e
n
c
y
,
”
P
n
a
.
g
o
v
.
p
h
,
2
0
2
4
.
h
t
t
p
s:
/
/
w
w
w
.
p
n
a
.
g
o
v
.
p
h
/
a
r
t
i
c
l
e
s
/
1
2
3
0
7
6
5
(
a
c
c
e
sse
d
N
o
v
.
2
0
,
2
0
2
4
)
.
[
7
]
J
.
K
a
u
r
,
K
.
S
.
P
a
r
m
a
r
,
a
n
d
S
.
S
i
n
g
h
,
“
A
u
t
o
r
e
g
r
e
s
s
i
v
e
m
o
d
e
l
s
i
n
e
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
t
i
m
e
s
e
r
i
e
s
:
a
t
h
e
o
r
e
t
i
c
a
l
a
n
d
a
p
p
l
i
c
a
t
i
o
n
r
e
v
i
e
w
,
”
E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l
S
c
i
e
n
c
e
a
n
d
P
o
l
l
u
t
i
o
n
R
e
s
e
a
r
c
h
,
v
o
l
.
3
0
,
n
o
.
8
,
p
p
.
1
9
6
1
7
–
1
9
6
4
1
,
J
a
n
.
2
0
2
3
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
1
0
0
7
/
s
1
1
3
5
6
-
023
-
2
5
1
4
8
-
9.
[
8
]
M
.
O
t
h
m
a
n
,
R
.
I
n
d
a
w
a
t
i
,
A
.
A
.
S
u
l
e
i
m
a
n
,
M
.
B
.
Q
o
m
a
r
u
d
d
i
n
,
a
n
d
R
.
S
o
k
k
a
l
i
n
g
a
m
,
“
M
o
d
e
l
f
o
r
e
c
a
s
t
i
n
g
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
f
o
r
d
e
n
g
u
e
f
e
v
e
r
i
n
c
i
d
e
n
c
e
i
n
s
u
r
a
b
a
y
a
c
i
t
y
u
s
i
n
g
t
i
m
e
s
e
r
i
e
s
a
n
a
l
y
s
i
s
,
”
P
r
o
c
e
s
s
e
s
,
v
o
l
.
1
0
,
n
o
.
1
1
,
p
.
2
4
5
4
,
N
o
v
.
2
0
2
2
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
3
3
9
0
/
p
r
1
0
1
1
2
4
5
4
.
[
9
]
Y.
-
T.
Tsa
n
,
D
.
-
Y
.
C
h
e
n
,
P
.
-
Y
.
L
i
u
,
E
.
K
r
i
s
t
i
a
n
i
,
L
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