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R
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T
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y
ef
f
ec
tiv
e
ly
ac
co
u
n
tin
g
f
o
r
s
ea
s
o
n
al
ef
f
ec
ts
,
SA
R
I
MA
ca
n
d
eliv
er
m
o
r
e
d
ep
en
d
ab
le
d
a
y
-
ah
ea
d
f
o
r
ec
asts
th
an
m
eth
o
d
s
th
at
o
v
er
lo
o
k
s
u
c
h
d
y
n
am
i
cs
[
2
0
]
,
[
2
1
]
.
T
h
is
s
tu
d
y
p
r
o
p
o
s
es
a
SAR
I
MA
-
b
ased
f
r
am
ewo
r
k
f
o
r
d
ay
-
ah
ea
d
PV
p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
to
s
u
p
p
o
r
t
g
r
id
s
tab
ilit
y
an
d
r
e
n
ewa
b
le
en
e
r
g
y
in
teg
r
atio
n
in
I
n
d
o
n
esia
.
Alth
o
u
g
h
m
a
n
y
s
tu
d
ies
h
a
v
e
in
v
e
s
tig
ated
PV
p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
,
d
ir
ec
t
co
m
p
ar
is
o
n
s
b
etwe
en
SAR
I
MA
,
a
rti
ficia
l
n
e
u
ra
l
n
e
two
r
k
(AN
N)
,
an
d
l
o
n
g
sh
o
rt
-
term
m
e
m
o
ry
(LS
TM
)
u
s
in
g
lim
ited
ir
r
ad
ia
n
ce
d
ata
ar
e
s
till
lim
ited
.
T
h
e
m
ain
co
n
t
r
ib
u
tio
n
s
o
f
th
i
s
s
tu
d
y
ar
e:
i)
th
e
d
ev
elo
p
m
e
n
t
o
f
a
SAR
I
MA
-
b
ased
d
aily
PV
p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
ast
in
g
m
o
d
el,
ii)
a
co
m
p
ar
ativ
e
ev
alu
atio
n
o
f
ANN
an
d
L
STM
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
es,
an
d
iii)
v
alid
atio
n
u
s
in
g
ac
tu
al
s
o
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
d
ata
f
r
o
m
Pad
a
n
g
C
ity
,
I
n
d
o
n
esia.
T
h
e
f
in
d
in
g
s
o
f
th
is
s
tu
d
y
ar
e
e
x
p
ec
ted
to
s
u
p
p
o
r
t
I
n
d
o
n
esia'
s
r
en
ewa
b
le
e
n
er
g
y
r
o
a
d
m
ap
b
y
im
p
r
o
v
in
g
th
e
ac
cu
r
ac
y
o
f
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
PV
p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
an
d
s
tr
en
g
th
en
in
g
th
e
r
eliab
ilit
y
o
f
th
e
el
ec
tr
icity
g
r
id
u
n
d
e
r
lim
ited
d
ata
co
n
d
itio
n
s
.
2.
M
E
T
H
O
D
T
h
is
s
tu
d
y
f
o
cu
s
es
o
n
f
o
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
s
o
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
d
ata
u
s
in
g
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
b
ase
d
o
n
tim
e
s
er
ies
an
aly
s
is
.
T
h
e
elec
tr
ica
l
p
o
wer
g
en
er
ated
b
y
PV
u
n
its
is
h
ig
h
ly
d
ep
en
d
en
t
o
n
th
e
lev
el
o
f
s
o
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
r
ec
ei
v
ed
b
y
th
e
PV
m
o
d
u
les,
as st
ated
in
(
1
)
[
2
2
]
.
(
)
=
{
2
<
≥
(
1
)
is
th
e
n
o
m
in
al
p
o
wer
o
u
tp
u
t
o
f
th
e
PV
u
n
it.
S
r
e
f
er
s
to
th
e
s
o
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
in
ci
d
en
t
o
n
t
h
e
PV
m
o
d
u
le.
is
th
e
s
o
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
u
n
d
e
r
s
tan
d
ar
d
test
in
g
co
n
d
itio
n
s
,
an
d
is
a
p
ar
ticu
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
c
e
p
o
in
t.
T
h
e
co
n
n
ec
ted
s
o
lar
PV
g
en
e
r
ato
r
h
as
a
r
ate
d
p
o
wer
o
f
2
5
m
eg
awa
tts
.
T
h
e
s
tan
d
ar
d
test
co
n
d
itio
n
f
o
r
s
o
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
(
)
is
s
et
to
1
0
0
0
w/m
2
,
an
d
th
e
s
p
ec
if
ic
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
p
o
in
t (
)
is
s
et
to
1
2
0
w/m
2
.
T
h
e
d
ata
u
s
ed
i
n
th
is
s
tu
d
y
w
er
e
o
b
tain
e
d
f
r
o
m
NASA's
h
is
to
r
ical
r
ec
o
r
d
s
o
f
s
o
lar
r
a
d
iatio
n
in
th
e
city
o
f
Pad
an
g
,
l
o
ca
ted
at
co
o
r
d
in
ates
L
atitu
d
e
–
0
.
8
9
8
3
a
n
d
L
o
n
g
itu
d
e
1
0
0
.
3
4
9
5
,
as
s
h
o
wn
in
Fig
u
r
e
1
.
Ho
u
r
ly
s
o
lar
r
ad
iatio
n
d
ata
(
2
4
d
ata
p
o
in
ts
p
er
d
a
y
)
wer
e
c
o
llected
f
r
o
m
Ma
r
ch
1
to
Ma
r
ch
3
1
,
2
0
2
4
.
T
h
e
d
ata
s
et
h
as
b
ee
n
v
er
if
ied
to
co
n
tain
n
o
m
is
s
in
g
o
r
ab
n
o
r
m
al
v
alu
es,
en
s
u
r
in
g
co
n
s
is
te
n
cy
an
d
r
eliab
ilit
y
th
r
o
u
g
h
o
u
t t
h
e
o
b
s
er
v
atio
n
p
e
r
io
d
.
Fig
u
r
e
1
.
So
lar
r
ad
iati
o
n
m
ap
o
f
Pad
an
g
C
ity
as th
e
s
tu
d
y
ar
ea
[
2
3
]
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
t J Po
w
E
lec
&
Dr
i Sy
s
t
I
SS
N:
2088
-
8
6
9
4
S
o
la
r
p
o
w
er fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
u
s
in
g
a
S
A
R
I
MA
a
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
fo
r
I
n
d
o
n
esia
's
g
r
id
i
n
teg
r
a
tio
n
(
R
icky
Ma
u
la
n
a
)
295
Usi
n
g
(
1
)
,
h
is
to
r
ical
PV
o
u
t
p
u
t
p
o
wer
was
ca
lcu
lated
an
d
p
r
esen
te
d
in
Fig
u
r
e
2
.
T
h
e
o
b
s
er
v
e
d
p
atter
n
s
h
o
ws
clea
r
d
aily
an
d
s
ea
s
o
n
al
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
,
with
s
o
lar
r
ad
iatio
n
in
te
n
s
ity
in
cr
e
asin
g
af
ter
s
u
n
r
is
e,
p
ea
k
in
g
at
m
id
d
ay
,
an
d
d
ec
r
ea
s
in
g
to
war
d
s
s
u
n
s
et.
T
h
e
s
e
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
ju
s
tify
th
e
ap
p
licatio
n
o
f
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
f
o
r
d
ay
-
ah
e
ad
PV
p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
.
A
s
u
m
m
ar
y
o
f
t
h
e
d
ataset
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
an
d
PV
s
y
s
tem
co
n
f
ig
u
r
atio
n
is
g
iv
en
in
T
ab
le
1
.
Fig
u
r
e
2
.
His
to
r
ical
d
ata
PV p
o
wer
o
u
tp
u
t
T
ab
l
e
1
.
D
ataset
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
an
d
PV sy
s
tem
co
n
f
ig
u
r
atio
n
P
a
r
a
me
t
e
r
V
a
l
u
e
Lo
c
a
t
i
o
n
P
a
d
a
n
g
C
i
t
y
,
I
n
d
o
n
e
si
a
La
t
i
t
u
d
e
–
0
.
8
9
8
3
o
Lo
n
g
i
t
u
d
e
1
0
0
.
3
4
9
5
o
P
e
r
i
o
d
M
a
r
c
h
1
–
3
1
,
2
0
2
4
S
a
mp
l
i
n
g
i
n
t
e
r
v
a
l
1
h
o
u
r
I
n
st
a
l
l
e
d
P
V
c
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
2
5
M
W
p
T
h
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
u
s
es
an
au
to
r
e
g
r
ess
iv
e
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
to
f
o
r
ec
ast
f
u
tu
r
e
v
alu
es
b
ased
o
n
p
ast
o
b
s
er
v
atio
n
s
.
B
y
in
co
r
p
o
r
ati
n
g
s
ea
s
o
n
al
co
m
p
o
n
en
ts
,
th
is
m
o
d
el
ex
ten
d
s
th
e
AR
I
MA
f
r
am
ewo
r
k
an
d
b
ec
o
m
es
well
-
s
u
ited
f
o
r
tim
e
s
er
ies
d
ata
with
r
ec
u
r
r
i
n
g
p
att
er
n
s
an
d
p
e
r
io
d
ic
f
lu
ctu
atio
n
s
.
T
h
is
ca
p
ab
ilit
y
is
p
ar
ticu
lar
ly
im
p
o
r
tan
t
f
o
r
ap
p
licatio
n
s
s
u
ch
as
lo
a
d
d
e
m
a
n
d
,
wea
th
e
r
,
a
n
d
r
en
ewa
b
le
en
er
g
y
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
,
wh
er
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
v
ar
iatio
n
s
s
tr
o
n
g
ly
af
f
ec
t
s
y
s
tem
d
y
n
am
ics
[
2
4
]
,
[
2
5
]
.
T
h
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
in
m
ath
em
atica
l
f
o
r
m
u
latio
n
is
g
iv
en
b
y
(
2
)
.
(
)
(
)
(
1
−
)
(
1
−
)
=
(
)
Θ
(
)
(
2
)
W
h
er
e:
Φ
is
AR
p
ar
am
eter
o
r
d
er
p
,
θ
is
th
e
MA
o
r
d
e
r
q
,
a
n
d
Θ
is
th
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
MA
o
r
d
er
q
.
Fo
r
ec
asti
n
g
u
s
in
g
s
ea
s
o
n
al
AR
I
MA
ca
n
b
e
o
b
tai
n
ed
f
r
o
m
f
o
u
r
m
ain
s
tag
e
s
:
id
en
tific
atio
n
,
esti
m
atio
n
,
d
ia
g
n
o
s
tic
ch
ec
k
in
g
,
an
d
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
.
Step
s
f
o
r
a
p
p
ly
in
g
th
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
AR
I
MA
m
eth
o
d
to
d
ay
-
ah
ea
d
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
f
o
r
PV
p
o
wer
o
u
tp
u
t
ar
e
s
h
o
wn
in
Fig
u
r
e
3
.
T
o
ass
ess
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
ac
cu
r
ac
y
,
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
was
b
en
ch
m
ar
k
ed
a
g
ain
s
t
ANN
an
d
L
STM
u
n
d
er
lim
ited
d
ata
co
n
d
itio
n
s
u
s
in
g
th
r
ee
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
an
ce
m
etr
i
cs:
m
ea
n
a
b
s
o
lu
te
er
r
o
r
(
MA
E
)
,
r
o
o
t m
ea
n
s
q
u
ar
e
er
r
o
r
(
R
MSE
)
,
an
d
n
o
r
m
alize
d
r
o
o
t m
ea
n
s
q
u
ar
e
e
r
r
o
r
(
NR
MSE
)
,
d
ef
in
ed
as
(
3
)
-
(
5
)
[
2
6
]
.
(
)
=
1
∑
|
(
)
|
=
1
(
3
)
(
)
=
√
(
1
∑
|
2
(
)
|
=
1
)
(
4
)
=
−
×
100%
(
5
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
P
V
OUT
P
UT
(
M
W)
TI
M
E(H
O
U
R
S
)
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
0
8
8
-
8
6
9
4
I
n
t J Po
w
E
lec
&
Dr
i Sy
s
t
,
Vo
l.
1
7
,
No
.
1
,
Ma
r
c
h
20
2
6
:
293
-
3
0
2
296
Fig
u
r
e
3
.
W
o
r
k
f
lo
w
o
f
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
illu
s
tr
atin
g
th
e
s
tep
s
f
o
r
d
a
y
-
ah
ea
d
PV p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
3.
RE
SU
L
T
S AN
D
D
I
SCU
SS
I
O
N
3
.
1
.
St
a
t
io
na
rit
y
a
nd
m
o
del
identif
ica
t
io
n
Fro
m
Fig
u
r
e
2
,
it
ca
n
b
e
o
b
s
er
v
ed
th
at
th
e
PV
p
o
wer
o
u
t
p
u
t
d
ata
s
h
o
ws
a
clea
r
an
d
r
ec
u
r
r
in
g
d
aily
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
at
a
f
ix
ed
2
4
-
h
o
u
r
in
ter
v
al.
T
h
e
r
ef
o
r
e
,
th
e
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
ap
p
lied
in
th
is
s
tu
d
y
u
s
es
a
Seaso
n
al
AR
I
MA
(
SAR
I
MA
)
s
tr
u
ctu
r
e.
T
h
e
d
ev
el
o
p
m
e
n
t
o
f
a
SAR
I
MA
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
m
o
d
el
b
e
g
in
s
with
an
an
aly
s
is
o
f
th
e
tim
e
s
er
ies
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tics
to
ass
es
s
d
ata
s
tatio
n
ar
ity
,
wh
e
r
e
s
tatis
tical
p
r
o
p
er
ties
s
u
ch
as
th
e
m
ea
n
,
v
ar
ian
ce
,
an
d
au
to
c
o
r
r
e
latio
n
r
em
ain
co
n
s
tan
t
o
v
er
ti
m
e.
T
h
is
p
r
o
p
e
r
ty
is
cr
u
cial
f
o
r
en
s
u
r
in
g
th
at
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
p
r
o
d
u
ce
s
r
eli
ab
le
f
o
r
ec
asts
an
d
a
v
o
id
s
in
co
r
r
ec
t r
eg
r
ess
io
n
r
esu
lts
.
Statio
n
ar
ity
was
ev
alu
ated
u
s
i
n
g
th
e
au
g
m
en
ted
Dick
ey
–
Fu
l
ler
(
ADF)
test
ap
p
lied
to
th
e
PV
p
o
wer
o
u
tp
u
t
d
ata.
As
r
ep
o
r
te
d
in
T
a
b
le
2
,
th
e
p
-
v
alu
e
is
b
elo
w
0
.
0
5
,
a
n
d
th
e
test
s
tatis
tic
is
lo
wer
th
an
th
e
c
r
itical
v
alu
e,
in
d
icatin
g
th
at
th
e
s
er
ie
s
is
s
tat
io
n
ar
y
an
d
ap
p
r
o
p
r
iate
f
o
r
s
u
b
s
eq
u
e
n
t m
o
d
elin
g
.
T
h
e
au
to
co
r
r
elatio
n
f
u
n
ctio
n
(
AC
F)
an
d
p
ar
tial
au
to
co
r
r
elati
o
n
f
u
n
ctio
n
(
PAC
F)
wer
e
s
u
b
s
eq
u
en
tly
ex
am
in
ed
to
d
eter
m
in
e
th
e
a
p
p
r
o
p
r
iate
m
o
d
el
o
r
d
er
s
,
as
il
lu
s
tr
ated
in
Fig
u
r
es
4
an
d
5
,
r
esp
ec
tiv
ely
.
T
h
ese
g
r
ap
h
s
s
h
o
w
a
clea
r
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
with
a
2
4
-
h
o
u
r
p
er
io
d
,
co
n
s
is
ten
t
with
th
e
d
aily
s
o
lar
r
ad
iatio
n
c
y
cle.
B
ased
o
n
th
ese
o
b
s
er
v
atio
n
s
,
a
s
ea
s
o
n
al
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
is
co
n
s
id
er
ed
s
u
itab
le
f
o
r
ca
p
tu
r
in
g
b
o
t
h
th
e
tr
e
n
d
an
d
th
e
r
ec
u
r
r
in
g
d
aily
s
ea
s
o
n
ality
in
th
e
PV p
o
wer
o
u
tp
u
t
d
ata.
T
ab
l
e
2
.
Au
g
m
en
ted
Dick
e
y
-
F
u
ller
(
ADF)
r
esu
lt
p
-
v
a
l
u
e
Te
st
S
t
a
t
i
s
t
i
c
C
r
i
t
i
c
a
l
v
a
l
u
e
C
o
n
c
l
u
s
i
o
n
0
.
0
0
1
-
4
.
2
2
0
4
-
1
.
9
4
1
3
st
a
t
i
o
n
e
r
3
.
2
.
SARI
M
A
m
o
del e
s
t
im
a
t
io
n a
nd
f
o
re
ca
s
t
re
s
ult
Af
ter
co
n
f
ir
m
in
g
t
h
e
s
tatio
n
a
r
ity
o
f
t
h
e
d
ataset,
s
ev
er
al
c
an
d
id
ate
SAR
I
MA
co
n
f
ig
u
r
at
io
n
s
wer
e
test
ed
to
d
eter
m
in
e
th
e
m
o
s
t
s
u
itab
le
m
o
d
el
f
o
r
PV
p
o
w
er
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
.
T
h
e
m
o
d
el
id
en
tific
atio
n
p
r
o
ce
s
s
in
v
o
lv
ed
ev
alu
atin
g
d
if
f
er
en
t
co
m
b
in
atio
n
s
o
f
p
a
r
am
eter
s
in
th
e
f
o
r
m
o
f
SAR
I
MA
(
p
,
d
,
q
)
(
P,D,
Q)
s
,
wh
er
e
s
=2
4
r
ep
r
esen
ts
th
e
h
o
u
r
ly
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
er
io
d
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
t J Po
w
E
lec
&
Dr
i Sy
s
t
I
SS
N:
2088
-
8
6
9
4
S
o
la
r
p
o
w
er fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
u
s
in
g
a
S
A
R
I
MA
a
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
fo
r
I
n
d
o
n
esia
's
g
r
id
i
n
teg
r
a
tio
n
(
R
icky
Ma
u
la
n
a
)
297
Fig
u
r
e
4
.
Au
t
o
co
r
r
ec
tio
n
f
u
n
ct
io
n
Fig
u
r
e
5
.
Par
tial
au
to
c
o
r
r
ec
tio
n
f
u
n
ctio
n
T
h
e
o
p
tim
al
m
o
d
el
was
s
ele
cted
u
s
in
g
th
e
Ak
aik
e
in
f
o
r
m
atio
n
cr
iter
io
n
(
AI
C
)
an
d
t
h
e
B
ay
esian
in
f
o
r
m
atio
n
cr
iter
io
n
(
B
I
C
)
,
wh
er
e
lo
wer
v
alu
es
in
d
icate
a
b
etter
b
alan
ce
b
etwe
en
g
o
o
d
n
e
s
s
o
f
f
it
an
d
m
o
d
el
co
m
p
lex
ity
.
T
h
e
an
al
y
s
is
o
f
th
e
au
to
co
r
r
ec
tio
n
f
u
n
ctio
n
an
d
p
ar
tial
au
to
co
r
r
ec
tio
n
f
u
n
ctio
n
in
d
icate
s
th
e
p
o
ten
tial f
o
r
m
o
d
el
d
ev
elo
p
m
en
t a
n
d
test
in
g
,
as illu
s
tr
ated
i
n
T
ab
le
3
.
B
as
e
d
o
n
t
h
e
m
o
d
e
l
c
o
m
p
a
r
i
s
o
n
,
t
h
e
S
A
R
I
M
A
(
1
,
0
,
1
)
(
4
,
0
,
3
)
24
c
o
n
f
i
g
u
r
a
t
i
o
n
w
a
s
c
h
o
s
e
n
a
s
t
h
e
o
p
t
i
m
a
l
m
o
d
e
l
d
u
e
t
o
i
t
s
l
o
w
es
t
A
I
C
a
n
d
B
I
C
v
al
u
e
s
.
T
h
e
es
ti
m
a
t
e
d
m
o
d
e
l
p
a
r
a
m
e
t
e
r
s
a
r
e
s
u
m
m
a
r
iz
ed
a
s
f
o
l
l
o
ws
:
−
No
n
-
s
ea
s
o
n
al
AR
(
p
=1
)
: 0
.
7
8
8
−
No
n
-
s
ea
s
o
n
al
MA
(
q
=1
)
: 0
.
0
7
3
−
Seaso
n
al
AR
(
P=4
)
: {
-
1
.
2
3
7
,
-
0
.
8
3
3
,
-
0
.
0
5
2
,
-
0
.
0
4
7
}
−
Seaso
n
al
MA
(
Q=
3
)
: {
0
.
4
3
8
,
-
0
.
1
7
5
,
-
0
.
6
5
0
}
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
0
8
8
-
8
6
9
4
I
n
t J Po
w
E
lec
&
Dr
i Sy
s
t
,
Vo
l.
1
7
,
No
.
1
,
Ma
r
c
h
20
2
6
:
293
-
3
0
2
298
T
h
ese
p
ar
am
eter
s
in
d
icate
a
s
tr
o
n
g
in
f
lu
en
ce
o
f
s
ea
s
o
n
al
au
to
r
eg
r
ess
iv
e
an
d
m
o
v
in
g
a
v
er
ag
e
co
m
p
o
n
en
ts
,
co
n
s
is
ten
t
with
th
e
2
4
-
h
o
u
r
p
er
io
d
ic
b
eh
av
io
r
o
f
s
o
lar
r
ad
i
atio
n
.
Fig
u
r
e
6
s
h
o
ws
th
e
r
es
u
lts
o
f
th
e
m
o
d
el
f
itti
n
g
,
d
em
o
n
s
tr
atin
g
a
g
o
o
d
f
it
b
etwe
en
th
e
h
is
to
r
ical
PV
p
o
wer
d
ata
an
d
th
e
a
d
ju
s
ted
v
al
u
es.
T
h
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
ac
cu
r
atel
y
tr
ac
k
s
d
aily
v
ar
iatio
n
s
in
s
o
lar
ir
r
ad
ian
ce
an
d
ca
p
t
u
r
es
p
ea
k
a
n
d
o
f
f
-
p
ea
k
b
eh
a
v
io
r
with
m
in
im
al
d
ev
iatio
n
.
T
h
e
r
esid
u
al
an
aly
s
is
in
d
icate
s
th
at
th
e
SA
R
I
MA
r
esid
u
als
ar
e
r
an
d
o
m
ly
d
is
tr
ib
u
ted
ar
o
u
n
d
ze
r
o
with
n
o
ev
id
en
t
p
atter
n
,
s
u
g
g
esti
n
g
th
at
th
e
m
o
d
el
ad
eq
u
ately
ca
p
tu
r
es
th
e
u
n
d
er
ly
in
g
tem
p
o
r
al
s
tr
u
ctu
r
e
o
f
th
e
PV
p
o
wer
s
er
ies.
T
h
e
r
esi
d
u
al
v
ar
ian
ce
r
em
ain
s
ap
p
r
o
x
i
m
ately
co
n
s
tan
t,
in
d
icatin
g
h
o
m
o
s
ce
d
asti
city
,
an
d
th
e
s
y
m
m
etr
ic
d
is
tr
ib
u
tio
n
ar
o
u
n
d
ze
r
o
im
p
lies
th
e
ab
s
en
ce
o
f
s
y
s
tem
atic
b
ias.
T
h
ese
r
esu
lts
co
n
f
ir
m
th
e
s
u
itab
ilit
y
o
f
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
f
o
r
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
PV p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
.
T
ab
l
e
3
.
T
est
r
esu
lt e
s
tim
ated
th
e
s
ea
s
o
n
al
Ar
im
a
m
o
d
el
M
o
d
e
l
Te
st
r
e
su
l
t
A
k
a
i
k
e
i
n
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
c
r
i
t
e
r
i
o
n
(
A
I
C
)
B
a
y
e
s
i
a
n
i
n
f
o
r
mat
i
o
n
c
r
i
t
e
r
i
o
n
(
B
I
C
)
(
1
,
0
,
1
)
(
4
,
0
,
3
)
24
P
:
1
2
1
D
:
0
Q
:
7
3
C
o
n
st
a
n
t
:
0
.
0
0
1
9
1
0
5
7
A
R
:
{
0
.
7
8
8
0
8
4
}
a
t
l
a
g
[
1
]
S
A
R
:
{
-
1
.
2
3
6
9
6
-
0
.
8
3
3
1
4
6
-
0
.
0
5
1
9
5
8
1
-
0
.
0
4
6
9
9
6
7
}
a
t
l
a
g
s [2
4
4
8
7
2
9
6
]
M
A
:
{
0
.
0
7
3
5
0
4
}
a
t
l
a
g
[
1
]
S
M
A
:
{
0
.
4
3
7
8
9
8
-
0
.
1
7
4
9
1
6
-
0
.
6
4
9
9
1
7
} a
t
l
a
g
s [
2
4
4
8
7
2
]
S
e
a
so
n
a
l
i
t
y
:
2
4
V
a
r
i
a
n
c
e
:
0
.
1
7
8
2
9
5
8
5
0
.
4
9
1
6
8
9
9
.
2
7
1
7
(
1
,
0
,
1
)
(
3
,
0
,
2
)
24
P
:
9
7
D
:
0
Q
:
4
9
C
o
n
st
a
n
t
:
-
0
.
0
0
1
1
2
9
7
7
A
R
:
{
0
.
7
9
0
1
1
2
}
a
t
l
a
g
[
1
]
S
A
R
:
{
-
0
.
7
9
8
5
6
5
-
0
.
1
0
5
4
3
-
0
.
0
0
5
2
6
3
0
6
}
a
t
l
a
g
s
[
2
4
4
8
7
2
]
M
A
:
{
0
.
0
7
4
4
0
1
5
}
a
t
l
a
g
[
1
]
S
M
A
:
{
-
0
.
0
4
1
6
6
5
4
-
0
.
5
3
7
3
3
}
a
t
l
a
g
s
[
2
4
4
8
]
S
e
a
so
n
a
l
i
t
y
:
2
4
V
a
r
i
a
n
c
e
:
0
.
1
9
5
3
2
7
9
1
4
.
3
7
0
2
9
5
4
.
6
2
1
3
(
1
,
0
,
1
)
(
2
,
0
,
1
)
24
P
:
7
3
D
:
0
Q
:
2
5
C
o
n
st
a
n
t
:
-
0
.
0
0
2
4
5
2
9
1
A
R
:
{
0
.
7
9
9
7
2
8
}
a
t
l
a
g
[
1
]
S
A
R
:
{
-
0
.
1
5
3
2
1
4
-
0
.
1
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a
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a
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a
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e
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y
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V
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r
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n
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0
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0
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3
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9
2
9
.
2
0
8
0
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6
0
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7
6
9
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(
1
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1
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(
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24
P
:
4
9
D
:
0
Q
:
2
5
C
o
n
st
a
n
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-
0
.
0
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1
8
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A
R
:
{
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a
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A
R
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{
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0
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t
l
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g
[
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A
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3
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A
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{
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0
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7
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a
t
l
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[
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e
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so
n
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:
2
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V
a
r
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a
n
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e
:
0
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2
0
1
5
5
4
9
2
9
.
0
5
3
5
9
5
6
.
5
2
0
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Fig
u
r
e
6
.
E
s
tim
ated
b
est s
ea
s
o
n
al
AR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
n
t J Po
w
E
lec
&
Dr
i Sy
s
t
I
SS
N:
2088
-
8
6
9
4
S
o
la
r
p
o
w
er fo
r
ec
a
s
tin
g
u
s
in
g
a
S
A
R
I
MA
a
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
fo
r
I
n
d
o
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esia
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g
r
id
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n
teg
r
a
tio
n
(
R
icky
Ma
u
la
n
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)
299
T
h
e
d
a
y
-
ah
ea
d
PV
p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
ast
f
o
r
Ap
r
il
1
,
2
0
2
4
,
is
p
r
esen
ted
in
T
ab
le
4
an
d
v
is
u
alize
d
in
Fig
u
r
e
7
.
T
h
e
f
o
r
ec
ast
in
d
ica
tes
a
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
tic
d
iu
r
n
al
p
a
tter
n
:
p
o
wer
p
r
o
d
u
ctio
n
b
eg
i
n
s
to
in
cr
ea
s
e
af
ter
s
u
n
r
is
e
(
ar
o
u
n
d
0
6
:
0
0
)
,
r
ea
c
h
es
its
p
ea
k
at
m
id
d
a
y
,
a
n
d
g
r
ad
u
ally
d
ec
lin
es
in
t
h
e
af
te
r
n
o
o
n
.
T
h
e
p
r
e
d
icted
m
ax
im
u
m
p
o
wer
o
u
tp
u
t is 8
.
5
5
MW a
t 1
2
:0
0
n
o
o
n
,
co
r
r
esp
o
n
d
in
g
t
o
th
e
h
i
g
h
est s
o
lar
r
ad
i
atio
n
o
f
th
e
d
ay
.
T
ab
l
e
4
.
Day
-
ah
ea
d
f
o
r
ec
ast r
esu
lt
H
o
u
r
s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
P
V
p
o
w
e
r
(
M
W
)
0
.
0
0
3
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
0
7
0
.
0
0
9
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
1
0
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0
1
9
0
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7
5
0
3
.
5
1
2
5
.
8
9
4
7
.
3
7
3
8
.
1
8
8
H
o
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r
s
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
P
V
p
o
w
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r
(
M
W
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8
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5
5
0
7
.
8
7
6
6
.
7
9
7
5
.
1
9
4
2
.
8
2
3
0
.
3
7
4
0
.
0
1
5
0
.
0
1
4
0
.
0
1
4
0
.
0
1
4
0
.
0
1
4
0
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0
1
4
Fig
u
r
e
7
.
Fo
r
ec
ast PV
p
o
wer
o
u
tp
u
t f
r
o
m
th
e
b
est m
o
d
el
o
f
s
ea
s
o
n
al
AR
I
MA
3.
3
.
F
o
re
ca
s
t
ing
mo
del e
v
a
l
ua
t
io
n
a
nd
co
m
pa
riso
n
T
h
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
p
ar
am
et
er
s
wer
e
s
elec
ted
b
ased
o
n
th
e
lo
west
AI
C
an
d
B
I
C
v
alu
es,
r
esu
ltin
g
in
th
e
o
p
tim
al
SAR
I
MA
co
n
f
ig
u
r
atio
n
(
1
,
0
,
1
)
(
4
,
0
,
3
)
24
.
T
h
is
s
tu
d
y
em
p
lo
y
s
a
h
o
ld
-
o
u
t
v
alid
atio
n
ap
p
r
o
ac
h
,
wh
er
e
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
is
tr
ain
ed
u
s
in
g
s
o
lar
ir
r
a
d
ian
ce
d
ata
f
r
o
m
Ma
r
c
h
1
to
3
0
,
2
0
2
4
,
an
d
t
h
en
test
ed
u
s
in
g
ac
tu
al
PV
p
o
wer
d
ata
o
n
Ma
r
ch
3
1
,
2
0
2
4
.
T
h
is
a
p
p
r
o
ac
h
s
er
v
es
as
a
o
n
e
-
s
tep
-
ah
ea
d
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
v
alid
atio
n
eq
u
i
v
alen
t
to
th
e
f
ir
s
t
f
o
ld
o
f
a
r
o
llin
g
c
r
o
s
s
-
v
alid
atio
n
s
ch
em
e.
T
o
f
u
r
th
er
ass
ess
th
e
r
o
b
u
s
tn
ess
o
f
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el,
two
m
ac
h
in
e
lear
n
in
g
a
p
p
r
o
ac
h
es,
n
a
m
ely
ANN
an
d
L
STM
,
wer
e
im
p
lem
en
ted
u
s
in
g
th
e
s
am
e
d
ataset.
T
h
e
ANN
was
d
esig
n
ed
as
a
f
ee
d
f
o
r
war
d
n
etwo
r
k
with
two
h
id
d
en
l
ay
er
s
o
f
5
0
a
n
d
2
5
n
eu
r
o
n
s
,
wh
ile
th
e
L
STM
ar
c
h
itectu
r
e
co
m
p
r
is
ed
a
s
eq
u
en
ce
in
p
u
t
la
y
er
,
an
L
STM
la
y
er
with
2
0
0
h
id
d
en
u
n
its
,
a
f
u
lly
co
n
n
ec
ted
lay
e
r
,
an
d
a
r
eg
r
ess
io
n
o
u
tp
u
t
lay
er
.
Mo
d
el
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
was
ev
a
lu
ated
u
s
in
g
MA
E
,
R
MSE
,
an
d
NR
MSE
m
etr
ics.
A
co
m
p
ar
is
o
n
o
f
th
e
ac
tu
al
P
V
p
o
wer
g
en
er
ate
d
o
n
Ma
r
c
h
3
1
,
2
0
2
4
,
with
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asted
r
esu
lts
f
r
o
m
SAR
I
MA
,
AN
N,
an
d
L
STM
m
o
d
els
is
illu
s
tr
ated
in
Fig
u
r
e
8
.
Actu
al
d
ata
s
h
o
ws
a
clea
r
d
aily
p
atter
n
,
wh
e
r
e
elec
tr
icity
g
en
er
atio
n
s
tar
ts
ar
o
u
n
d
7
:0
0
a.
m
.
,
p
ea
k
s
a
r
o
u
n
d
m
id
d
a
y
,
a
n
d
g
r
ad
u
ally
d
ec
lin
es
to
ze
r
o
at
n
ig
h
t.
All th
r
ee
m
o
d
els ar
e
ab
le
to
ca
p
tu
r
e
th
is
g
en
er
al
tr
en
d
,
alb
eit
with
v
ar
y
in
g
d
eg
r
ee
s
o
f
ac
c
u
r
ac
y
.
T
h
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
y
ield
s
r
esu
lts
th
at
ar
e
r
em
ar
k
ab
ly
clo
s
e
to
th
e
ac
t
u
al
v
alu
es,
p
ar
ticu
lar
ly
d
u
r
in
g
th
e
m
o
r
n
i
n
g
in
c
r
ea
s
e
an
d
th
e
ev
en
i
n
g
d
ec
r
ea
s
e,
d
e
m
o
n
s
tr
atin
g
its
ab
ilit
y
to
r
e
p
r
esen
t
s
ea
s
o
n
al
p
atter
n
s
ac
c
u
r
ately
.
T
h
e
ANN
m
o
d
el
p
r
o
v
id
es
s
lig
h
tly
h
i
g
h
er
esti
m
ates
d
u
r
in
g
p
e
ak
p
er
io
d
s
,
b
u
t
s
till
f
o
llo
ws
th
e
ac
tu
al
p
atter
n
r
elativ
ely
well,
d
em
o
n
s
tr
atin
g
its
ab
ilit
y
to
m
o
d
el
n
o
n
lin
ea
r
ch
ar
ac
ter
is
ti
cs
ev
en
with
lim
ited
d
ata.
I
n
co
n
tr
ast,
th
e
L
STM
m
o
d
el
ex
h
i
b
its
a
ten
d
en
cy
to
o
v
er
esti
m
ate
PV
o
u
tp
u
t
d
u
r
in
g
d
ay
tim
e
h
o
u
r
s
,
p
ar
tic
u
lar
ly
b
etwe
en
0
7
:0
0
an
d
1
4
:0
0
,
with
d
ev
iatio
n
s
ex
ce
ed
in
g
4
–
6
MW.
T
h
is
b
eh
a
v
io
r
i
s
co
n
s
is
ten
t
with
th
e
q
u
an
titat
iv
e
r
esu
lts
r
ep
o
r
ted
in
T
ab
le
5
.
Evaluation Warning : The document was created with Spire.PDF for Python.
I
SS
N
:
2
0
8
8
-
8
6
9
4
I
n
t J Po
w
E
lec
&
Dr
i Sy
s
t
,
Vo
l.
1
7
,
No
.
1
,
Ma
r
c
h
20
2
6
:
293
-
3
0
2
300
Fig
u
r
e
8
an
d
T
a
b
le
5
s
h
o
w
th
at
th
e
SAR
I
MA
m
o
d
el
a
ch
iev
es
s
u
p
er
io
r
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
ac
cu
r
ac
y
co
m
p
ar
e
d
with
ANN
an
d
L
STM
,
p
a
r
ticu
lar
ly
u
n
d
er
lim
ited
d
ata
c
o
n
d
itio
n
s
.
W
h
ile
ANN
attain
s
m
o
d
er
ate
p
er
f
o
r
m
an
ce
,
L
ST
M
ex
h
ib
its
lo
wer
ac
cu
r
ac
y
,
in
d
icatin
g
its
d
ep
e
n
d
en
ce
o
n
lar
g
e
tr
ain
in
g
d
atasets
.
T
h
ese
r
esu
lts
d
ir
ec
tly
ad
d
r
es
s
th
e
r
esear
ch
g
a
p
id
e
n
tifie
d
in
th
e
I
n
tr
o
d
u
ctio
n
b
y
co
n
f
i
r
m
in
g
t
h
at
class
ical
s
tatis
t
ical
m
o
d
els
s
u
ch
as
SAR
I
MA
ca
n
o
u
tp
er
f
o
r
m
m
o
r
e
co
m
p
lex
n
eu
r
al
ar
c
h
itectu
r
es
f
o
r
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
PV
p
o
wer
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
in
d
ata
-
co
n
s
tr
ain
ed
en
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
ts
.
Alth
o
u
g
h
m
o
s
t
r
ec
en
t
s
tu
d
ies
in
I
n
d
o
n
esia
f
o
cu
s
o
n
m
ac
h
in
e
lear
n
in
g
-
b
ased
PV
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
,
th
e
r
esu
lts
o
f
th
is
s
tu
d
y
s
h
o
w
th
at
s
tatis
tical
m
o
d
els
with
ex
p
licit
s
ea
s
o
n
al
s
tr
u
ctu
r
es,
s
u
ch
as
SAR
I
MA
,
r
em
ain
h
ig
h
ly
r
ele
v
an
t
f
o
r
s
h
o
r
t
-
ter
m
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
task
s
,
esp
ec
ially
wh
en
h
is
to
r
ical
d
ata
av
ailab
ilit
y
is
lim
ited
.
B
a
s
ed
o
n
th
e
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
r
esu
lts
o
b
tain
ed
,
t
h
e
SAR
I
MA
-
b
ased
f
r
am
ewo
r
k
ca
n
s
u
p
p
o
r
t n
etwo
r
k
o
p
e
r
ato
r
s
in
im
p
r
o
v
in
g
d
ail
y
d
is
p
atch
in
g
p
lan
n
in
g
,
r
e
d
u
ci
n
g
r
eser
v
e
m
a
r
g
in
s
,
an
d
m
in
im
izin
g
d
ep
e
n
d
en
ce
o
n
f
o
s
s
il
f
u
el
-
b
ased
p
o
wer
p
lan
ts
.
T
h
is
ca
p
ab
ilit
y
is
h
ig
h
ly
r
elev
an
t
to
th
e
I
n
d
o
n
esian
p
o
wer
s
y
s
tem
,
wh
er
e
en
h
an
ce
d
ac
cu
r
ac
y
in
PV
f
o
r
ec
asti
n
g
is
ess
en
tial
f
o
r
s
u
s
tain
in
g
g
r
i
d
r
eliab
ilit
y
am
id
in
cr
ea
s
in
g
r
en
ewa
b
le
en
er
g
y
p
en
etr
atio
n
.
Fig
u
r
e
8
.
C
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ased
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Au
lia
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C
:
C
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p
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S],
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eq
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est.
RE
F
E
R
E
NC
E
S
[
1
]
K
.
A
sw
a
d
i
,
A
.
Ja
mal
,
S
.
S
y
a
h
n
u
r
,
a
n
d
M
.
N
a
si
r
,
“
R
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e
a
n
d
n
o
n
-
r
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e
e
n
e
r
g
y
c
o
n
su
mp
t
i
o
n
i
n
I
n
d
o
n
e
s
i
a
:
D
o
e
s
i
t
m
a
t
t
e
r
f
o
r
e
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
g
r
o
w
t
h
?
,
”
I
n
t
e
r
n
a
t
i
o
n
a
l
J
o
u
r
n
a
l
o
f
En
e
r
g
y
E
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
s
a
n
d
Po
l
i
c
y
,
v
o
l
.
1
3
,
n
o
.
2
,
p
p
.
1
0
7
–
1
1
6
,
M
a
r
.
2
0
2
3
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
3
2
4
7
9
/
i
j
e
e
p
.
1
3
9
0
0
.
[
2
]
S
.
P
.
K
a
n
u
g
r
a
h
a
n
,
D
.
F
.
H
a
k
a
m,
a
n
d
H
.
N
u
g
r
a
h
a
,
“
T
e
c
h
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o
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o
mi
c
a
n
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y
si
s o
f
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n
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e
s
i
a
p
o
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n
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t
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o
n
e
x
p
a
n
s
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o
n
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
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c
o
n
o
mi
c
s
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st
a
i
n
a
b
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t
y
a
n
d
n
e
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e
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c
a
r
b
o
n
2
0
5
0
,”
S
u
st
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i
n
a
b
i
l
i
t
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.
1
4
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9
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2
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o
i
:
1
0
.
3
3
9
0
/
su
1
4
1
5
9
0
3
8
.
[
3
]
T.
B
.
S
u
mar
n
o
,
A
.
B
a
c
h
t
i
a
r
,
a
n
d
A
.
N
.
Jat
i
,
“
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c
c
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l
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t
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mi
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n
I
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p
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t
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-
1
9
:
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st
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n
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g
y
t
r
a
n
s
i
t
i
o
n
,
”
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l
o
b
a
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En
e
rg
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S
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l
.
1
,
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.
2
,
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p
.
1
4
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4
8
,
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u
g
.
2
0
2
0
,
d
o
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:
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0
.
3
3
6
6
/
g
e
l
s.
2
0
2
0
.
0
0
1
8
.
[
4
]
C
.
H
.
T.
d
e
A
n
d
r
a
d
e
e
t
a
l
.
,
“
H
o
w
d
o
e
s
n
e
u
r
a
l
n
e
t
w
o
r
k
mo
d
e
l
c
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
a
f
f
e
c
t
p
h
o
t
o
v
o
l
t
a
i
c
p
o
w
e
r
p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n
?
a
s
t
u
d
y
c
a
s
e
,
”
S
e
n
so
rs
,
v
o
l
.
2
3
,
n
o
.
3
,
p
.
1
3
5
7
,
Ja
n
.
2
0
2
3
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
3
3
9
0
/
s
2
3
0
3
1
3
5
7
.
[
5
]
N
.
M
l
i
l
o
,
J.
B
r
o
w
n
,
a
n
d
T.
A
h
f
o
c
k
,
“
I
mp
a
c
t
o
f
i
n
t
e
r
m
i
t
t
e
n
t
r
e
n
e
w
a
b
l
e
e
n
e
r
g
y
g
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
p
e
n
e
t
r
a
t
i
o
n
o
n
t
h
e
p
o
w
e
r
sy
s
t
e
m
n
e
t
w
o
r
k
s
–
A
r
e
v
i
e
w
,
”
T
e
c
h
n
o
l
o
g
y
a
n
d
E
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
s
o
f
S
m
a
r
t
G
r
i
d
s
a
n
d
S
u
st
a
i
n
a
b
l
e
En
e
rg
y
,
v
o
l
.
6
,
n
o
.
1
,
p
.
2
5
,
D
e
c
.
2
0
2
1
,
d
o
i
:
1
0
.
1
0
0
7
/
s
4
0
8
6
6
-
0
2
1
-
0
0
1
2
3
-
w.
[
6
]
M
.
H
.
M
o
h
a
m
e
d
H
a
r
i
r
i
,
M
.
K
.
M
a
t
D
e
sa
,
S
.
M
a
sr
i
,
a
n
d
M
.
A
.
A
.
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P
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p
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