ENHANCED NEURO-FUZZY ARCHITECTURE FOR ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING

Abstract

Previous researches about electrical load time series data forecasting showed that the result was not satisfying. This paper elaborates the enhanced neuro-fuzzy architecture for the same application. The system uses Gaussian membership function (GMF) for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic system. The training algorithm is Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the parameters in order to get better forecasting system than the previous researches. The electrical load was taken from East Java-Bali from September 2005 to August 2007. The architecture uses 4 inputs, 3 outputs with 5 GMFs. The system uses the following parameters: momentum=0.005, gamma=0.0005 and wildness factor=1.001. The MSE for short term forecasting for January to March 2007 is 0.0010, but the long term forecasting for June to August 2007 has MSE 0.0011.