Data-driven clustering and prediction of high school graduation rates in Indonesia (2015-2023) using machine learning

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the graduation rate of senior high school education in 34 Indonesian provinces during the period 2015-2023 and identify patterns of educational disparities between regions. To achieve the objectives, this study applies a neural network to predict education completion patterns based on historical data, then the prediction results are analyzed using K-means clustering technique utilizing the elbow method to select the ideal number of clusters. The clustering results show three categories of provinces based on education completion rates: high, medium, and low. The provinces with high completion rates, generally, supported with good education infrastructure and effective policies, while the medium category faces challenges in resource distribution, but still potentially improve. In contrast, the low category suffers from limited access, geographical constraints, and socio-economic disparities. This research contributes to education policy-making by offering a machine learning-based approach to understanding education disparities between regions. The new insight offered by this study lies in the integration of neural network and K-means clustering in mapping education completion rates to support strategies for improving access and quality of education in Indonesia.