A hierarchical mixed-effects modeling framework with Weibull reliability characterization for spatiotemporal throughput variability in cellular networks

Abstract

Reliable cellular throughput is essential for ensuring consistent user experience in modern mobile networks, yet it exhibits significant variability across spatial and operational conditions due to propagation effects, interference, and network congestion. This study proposes a hierarchical mixed-effects modeling framework integrated with Weibull-based reliability analysis to characterize spatiotemporal throughput variability in real-world operating conditions. The analysis is based on a large-scale dataset comprising over 77,000 field measurements collected across multiple university campus locations in Ghana, enabling cross-layer evaluation of network performance using key indicators, including reference signal received power (RSRP), reference signal received quality (RSRQ), and round-trip time (RTT). Analysis results indicate that all modeled predictors significantly influence throughput performance, with signal quality emerging as the dominant factor, alongside notable spatial heterogeneity. The model explains 18.9% of variability using fixed effects and 45.1% when spatial effects are included. Reliability analysis indicates that the probability of achieving 5 Mbps and 10 Mbps is 39.7% and 22.5%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively captures throughput variability, spatial heterogeneity, and probabilistic service reliability in operational cellular environments, providing a practical analytical framework for reliability-aware cellular network optimization and performance evaluation.